塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地沙尘暴发生条件分析

利用塔中气象站1997—2002年的气象资料, 从沙尘源丰富程度、风动力条件和空气稳定度等方面分析了塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地沙尘暴的成因。结果表明:在塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地, 沙尘源极为丰富, 为沙尘暴发生提供了必要条件, 降水基本不能改变沙面的湿润状况, 沙尘源丰富度不是沙尘暴发生的限制因子; 风动力是沙尘暴发生的重要条件, 而月平均风速和大风日数是风动力的重要定量表征指标; 空气稳定性也是沙尘暴发生的重要条件, 温度和天气过程是其重要标志, 沙尘暴发生与温度呈正相关, 沙尘暴多发生在夏季和午后; 降水是沙漠腹地天气过程的重要指标, 月降水日数和降水总量与沙尘暴日数呈正相关; 20世纪90年代以来沙尘暴逐年减少, 这种变化趋势可能与全球气候变化有关。     

尾矿坝稳定性的可靠度分析

以极限平衡理论和传统的安全系数方法为基础,将可靠度理论引入尾矿坝稳定性分析中。通过敏感性分析和可靠度计算分析发现,尾矿材料的内摩擦角的变异性将显著地影响尾矿坝稳定性分析的可靠指标,重度的变异性对可靠指标的影响大于粘聚力的变异性的影响。简述了尾矿坝稳定性分析中利用可靠度理论的重要性,并建议在尾矿坝的可靠度分析中,将尾矿材料的抗剪强度指标c, 和重度 作为基本随机变量。     

南海天然气水合物稳定带的影响因素

文章利用南海所积累的大量热流、海底温度和地温梯度数据，针对地温梯度的变化，对地温梯度数据进行了初步校正。分情况研究了纯甲烷，甲烷、乙烷、丙烷混合物分别在纯水、海水条件下形成的天然气水合物在南海的可能分布范围；进而对影响天然气水合物分布的影响因素进行了讨论。研究表明，随着天然气中重烃含量的增加，孔隙水盐度的降低，水合物稳定带在平面上的分布范围越来越大，水合物稳定带的厚度也越来越大。比较而言，气体组成的影响要比孔隙水盐度的大。同时，天然气水合物稳定带的厚度与热流有一定的负相关关系。在南海2000m水深范围之内，由于受海底温度的控制，水合物稳定带的厚度与水深呈明显的正相关关系。     

中国区域地壳稳定性定量化评价与分区

中国地处环太平洋构造带与地中海构造带交接部位,地质构造复杂,活动性较为强烈,各种内动力地质灾害比较严重,总体看来中国区域地壳稳定性相对较差。为了使区域地壳稳定性评价与分区获得定量化认识,更好地服务于经济建设和减灾防灾,本文在分析中国现今活动的主要构造体系与内动力地质灾害的分布规律的基础上,首先进行区域地壳稳定性定量化评价待评区的划分;其次进行定量化评价指标的选定、取值、权重分配及评价标准的确定;最后运用模糊数学进行中国区域地壳稳定性定量化评价与分区。      

Review of the Study of Nonlinear Atmospheric Dynamics in China （1999-2002）

Researches on nonlinear atmospheric dynamics in China (1999-2002) are briefly surveyed. This review includes the major achievements in the following branches of nonlinear dynamics: nonlinear stability theory,nonlinear blocking dynamics, 3D spiral structure in the atmosphere, traveling wave solution of the nonlinear evolution equation, numerical predictability in a chaotic system, and global analysis of climate dynamics.Some applications of nonlinear methods such as hierarchy structure of climate and scaling invariance, the spatial-temporal series predictive method, the nonlinear inverse problem, and a new difference scheme with multi-time levels are also introduced.     

非均一地形近地层风速廓线特点及粗糙度的研究

在中性大气层结条件下,利用35 m铁塔上五层不同高度处的有效风速,分析得到了非均一地形近地面层风速廓线特点及由粗糙元所决定的粗糙度。结果表明:(1)近地面层风速廓线一般符合对数风速廓线模式,其相关系数均大于0.985,标准偏差为0.04左右;(2)粗糙度的值为1.25 m。但由于外界流体运动状态改变可引起粗糙度出现起伏,其变化范围较大,一般在0.038～4.903 m,与风速之间的相关系数为-0.953。     

Nonlinear Atmospheric and Climate Dynamics in China （2003-2006）： A Review

Recent advances in the study of nonlinear atmospheric and climate dynamics in China （2003 2006） are briefly reviewed. Major achievements in the following eight areas are covered： nonlinear error dynamics and predictability; nonlinear analysis of observational data; eddy-forced envelope Rossby soliton theory; sensitivity and stability of the ocean＇s thermohaline circulation; nonlinear wave dynamics; nonlinear analysis on fluctuations in the atmospheric boundary layer; the basic structures of atmospheric motions; some applications of variational methods.     

Long-term Stability and Oceanic Mean State Simulated by the Coupled Model FGOALS-s2

We describe the long-term stability and mean climatology of oceanic circulations simulated by version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model(FGOALS-s2).Driven by pre-industrial forcing,the integration of FGOALS-s2 was found to have remained stable,with no obvious climate drift over 600 model years.The linear trends of sea SST and sea surface salinity(SSS) were 0.04°C(100yr)-1 and 0.01 psu(100yr)-1,respectively.The simulations of oceanic temperatures,wind-driven circulation and thermohaline circulation in FGOALS-s2 were found to be comparable with observations,and have been substantially improved over previous FGOALS-s versions(1.0 and 1.1).However,significant SST biases(exceeding 3°C) were found around strong western boundary currents,in the East China Sea,the Sea of Japan and the Barents Sea.Along the eastern coasts in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean,a warm bias(>3°C) was mainly due to overestimation of net surface shortwave radiation and weak oceanic upwelling.The difference of SST biases in the North Atlantic and Pacific was partly due to the errors of meridional heat transport.For SSS,biases exceeding 1.5 psu were located in the Arctic Ocean and around the Gulf Stream.In the tropics,freshwater biases dominated and were mainly caused by the excess of precipitation.Regarding the vertical dimension,the maximal biases of temperature and salinity were located north of 65°N at depths of greater than 600 m,and their values exceeded 4°C and 2 psu,respectively.     

高速公路中红砂岩滑坡特征及整治

高速公路中红砂岩切方边坡失稳普遍存在。通过对两条高速公路边坡的调查研究和整治设计可以看出,边坡失稳主要与砂岩层面顺坡向、风化及节理发育程度有关外,还与地表形态、地表水下渗条件等密切有关。分析这些因素,为以后类似边坡工程积累经验,减少边坡开挖造成滑坡,对从事类似工程的设计施工,监理人员有参考作用。     

临涣矿区界沟煤矿工程地质条件研究

根据主采煤层顶底板岩体岩性类型及结构面发育程度对其稳定性进行了评价：72煤层顶板以中等稳定一不稳定类型为主,82煤层顶板以中等稳定类型为主,10煤层顶板以中等稳定一稳定类型为主。在大量统计见煤点硬质岩百分含量（k值）的基础上,结合顶板岩石的单轴抗压强度,对各主采煤层顶底板工程地质类型进行了划分：72煤层以一、二类顶板为主,82、10煤层均以五类顶板为主。综合评价该矿工程地质条件为中等即Ⅲ类二型。根据研究成果,指出该矿在采掘过程中可能出现的工程地质问题,并依此提出了治理建议。