多种模式降水预报的稳定性特征研究

预报的稳定性是指对同一时段在不同时间发布的多时效预报结论的一致性,是模式预报质量的一个重要方面,较大的不稳定性会给使用者造成困扰。为深入了解业务常用模式的稳定性,使用相对标准偏差指标计算不同时效预报的降水量波动大小,并改进了Flip-Flop指数（改进后简称FFnorm）,计算多时效降水量预报变化趋势的翻转程度,衡量预报变化趋势的稳定性,对2种全球模式（ECMWF、NCEP-GFS）、3种区域模式（CMA-MESO、CMA-SH9、HHUPS-ST）,在中国6个气候分区中降水预报的稳定性进行对比分析,分为实况有降水和暴雨及以上降水2种情况进行了讨论。结果表明：实况有降水时,相对区域模式来说,全球模式的多时效降水预报的相对标准偏差较小,即模式降水量预报的波动较小;各模式对西南区的西部、东北区的东部以及华南区的南部预报的波动性相对较小,西北区的西部波动性较大。就多时效降水量预报变化趋势而言,2种情况下均为CMA-MESO、NCEP-GFS和 ECMWF的稳定性较好,其FFnorm指数小于HHUPS-ST和CMA-SH9模式,其中CMA-MESO对西南区、华南部分地区降水量预报变化趋势的稳定性较为突出;CMA-SH9的指数最大,多时效降水量预报变化趋势稳定性较差;各模式对长江中下游地区的FFnorm指数相对较大,多时效预报趋势的稳定性较差。有降水时,CMA-MESO随时效临近的降水量预报变化趋势稳定（单调递增、单调递减或不变）的频次最多,其次是NCEP-GFS,2种降水情况下,该2种模式的降水量预报均为随时效临近单调递增次数大于递减次数,且CMA-MESO单调递增特征尤其显著。以上特征能够为模式调试和预报决策提供参考。     

福建省数字化钻孔体应变观测资料质量初步分析

对整个福建省的钻孔体应变仪器运行状况进行了综合评价,并对4个台站的观测资料质量进行了分析,用M2波潮汐因子及其相对中误差等来衡量其总体精度和稳定性,还分析了钻孔应变观测的干扰机理和特征,希望能够正确地认识以及排除观测资料中的非异常信息,提高观测精度,为地震分析预报提供可靠的前兆资料。     

制造业活动地理转移视角下的中国产业集群问题

在简要回顾产业集群理论的基础上,在制造业活动地理转移的视角下,结合案例重新审视了我国劳动密集型产业集群的形成及发展.作者认为,一些锁定在低成本竞争的集群正在或已经老化,甚至衰亡.另一些集群中的企业有过度集聚的问题,还有一些中小企业集聚的区域根据产业特征需要增加产业集中度.因为集群的这些问题,随成本上升,出现了集群中企业的加工制造环节外移的现象.这种现象挑战了新产业区理论中集群是"在流动的全球空间中的粘结的区位"的观点.根据集群中企业外移现象,就产业承接地的规划和发展,以及转出地那些正在升级的集群的地理稳定性和生产者服务业的发展问题,提出了几点看法.     

某高速公路古滑坡稳定性评价及治理研究

某高速公路路线通过古滑坡前缘,工程建设需要对滑坡前缘进行开挖可能导致滑坡复活.在现场调查分析的基础上,采用极限平衡理论和变形理论对滑坡在各工况条件下的稳定性状况、应力环境和变形特征进行研究,认为滑坡在前缘开挖和运行期暴雨状态下可能产生复活.在此基础上提出了双排抗滑桩的治理设计方案,并基于变形理论的稳定性评价方法对该方案的治理效果进行了研究,结果表明该方案能有效地改善坡体应力条件并控制坡体整体变形.     

The effect of pore water pressure on tunnel face stability

The kinematic approach in combination with numerical simulation is used to examine the effect of pore water pressure on tunnel face stability. Pore water pressure distribution obtained by numerical calculations using FLAC^3D is used to interpolate the pore water pressure on a 3D rotational collapse mechanism. Comparisons are made to check the present approach against other solutions, showing that the present approach improves the existing upper bound solutions. Results obtained indicate that critical effective face pressure increases with water table elevation. Several normalized charts are also presented for quick evaluation of tunnel face stability. At the end of the paper, the influence of anisotropic permeability on tunnel face stability is also discussed, showing that the isotropic model leads to an overestimation of the necessary tunnel face pressure for anisotropic soils. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Book review of TURBULENCE – AN INTRODUCTION FOR SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS by P.A. Davidson,Oxford University Press, 2004, XIX + 657 pp., £90.00, $174.50 hardback (ISBN 0-19-852948-1), £35.00, $69.50 paperback (ISBN 0-19-852949-X).

Abstract

By T. G. Cowling. Adam Hilger Ltd, x + 136 pp. £10.00 (ISBN O 85274 300 9) July 1976.     

Assessment of slope stability in cohesive soils due to a rainfall

The primary focus in this work is on proposing a methodology for the assessment of stability of natural/engineered slopes in clayey soils subjected to water infiltration. In natural deposits of fine‐grained soils, the presence of water in the vicinity of minerals results in an interparticle bonding. This effect cannot be easily quantified as it involves complex chemical interactions at the micromechanical level. Here, the evolution of strength properties, including the apparent cohesion resulting from initial suction at the irreducible fluid saturation, is described by employing the framework of chemoplasticity. The paper provides first the formulation of the problem; this involves specification of the constitutive relation, development of an implicit return mapping scheme, and the outline of a coupled transient formulation. The framework is then applied to examine the stability of a slope subjected to a prolonged period of intensive rainfall. It is shown that the water infiltration may trigger the loss of stability resulting from the degradation of material properties. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shear wave propagation along infinite slopes: A theoretically based numerical study

In this paper, the seismic response of ‘infinitely’ long slopes is numerically analysed via the formulation of a 1D analytical/numerical model, in which the soil mechanical behaviour is assumed to be elasto‐perfectly viscoplastic and simple shear (SS) kinematical constraints are imposed. In order to simplify the problem, a theoretically based procedure to set up a fully 1D shear constitutive model is defined, within which the mechanical response of a multiaxial relationship is condensed. The use of a 1D shear constitutive model is aimed at reducing the number of unknowns and, therefore, the computational costs. In particular, the case of the Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion is considered, while an enhanced Taylor–Galerkin finite element algorithm is employed to simulate the seismic wave propagation within the soil stratum. The proposed ‘condensation’/calibration procedure captures both the ‘pseudo’‐hardening pre‐failure behaviour and the influence of dilation on the occurrence of strain‐localization, which characterize, under SS conditions, the static response of virgin perfectly plastic soils. The effectiveness of the conceived method is shown with reference to freshly deposited deposits, while, in the case of highly overconsolidated strata, some difficulties arise because of the brittle behaviour induced both by unloading and non‐associativeness. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A nonlinear stability analysis of convection in a generalized incompressible fluid

Abstract

We establish a nonlinear stability result for convection in a generalized incompressible fluid. Both numerical calculations and an asymptotic analysis are carried out. The linear and nonlinear results are shown to be very close in both cases, implying that the region of possible subcritical instabilities is very small.

During this work I was supported by a research studentship awarded by the Science and Engineering Council of the United Kingdom.     

A temporal model for landslide risk based on historical precipitation

Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.