Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.     

方差分量估计方法在ERS—2卫星精密定轨中的应用

将方差分量估计（VCE）方法应用于ERS－2卫星的精密定轨,用SLR和PRARE资料计算了1998年前3个月的23个长度为5天的弧段（除了调整轨道的时段外,相邻弧段有两天的重叠）,从观测值残差分析和重叠弧段比较两个方面,考察VCE方法对定轨计算的影响,并给出了各组观测值的平均验后均方差,对观测值残差的分析表明,使用VCE方法明显地改善了观测值的拟合程度,但从阿卑（Abbey)标准对观测值残差的检验结果来看,使用VCE方法不能消除轨道中由力学模型和几何模型误差引入的系统差,重叠弧段比较的结果表明：（1）使用VCE方法缩小了重叠弧段的平均距离差,并改善了一部分权段明显不合理的偏离,使最后得到的轨道具有更均匀的精度,（2）相比较而言,VCE方法使相邻弧段靠拢的趋势在轨道切向体现得较为明显,由各组观测值的平均验后方差可见,说单个标准点观测值而言,部分SLR台站的观测资料在定轨计算中占有比其他观测资料更重的地位,纵观全文,使用VCE后得到的观测值的平衡验后均方差来确定资料的双重将比使用均方差更为合理。     

水稻时域散射特征分析及其应用研究

通过对肇庆试验区1996年和1997年获取的多时相、多模式雷达卫星（RADARSAT）数据分析,从图像上直接提取地物的后向散射系数,结合实地测量水稻的生长结构参数,建立了水稻生长模型,分析了不同生长周期（从80天到120－125天）4种类型水稻的时域散射特性。利用1997年4月至7月获取的7景标准模式雷达卫星数据,对试验区内三个县和两个行政区共5000km^2面积范围内的作物进行分类和水稻产量预估算,水稻类型分类及面积量算精度达91％。结果表明：利用雷达遥感数据进行水稻种植面积量算和估产需要水稻生长期间三个时相的数据,即插秧期、抽穗期、收割前期。若能够获得多参数雷达图像,可以用插秧期和收割前期的两个时相图像来代替上述的三个时相图像同样可以达到种植面积量算和估产的效果。这一结果充分说明多时相雷达卫星数据对我国南方水稻长势监测及估产具有明显优势和潜力。     

频谱成像技术在稠油热采地震监测中的应用

频谱成像技术可有效的描述地质反射层厚度的非连续性和岩性的非均质性,其在理论上主要是依据薄层反射的调谐原理,过去通常采用以离散傅里叶变换为基础的算法,但是,该方法存在着明显的局限性,因为估算的地震振幅谱的重要特征是所选时窗长度的函数.如果所选时窗过短,振幅谱会与变换窗函数褶积,失去频率的局部化特征,而且过短的时窗会使子波的旁瓣呈现为单一反射的假象.增加时窗长度,会改善频率的分辨率.但如果所选时窗过长,时窗内的多个反射会使振幅谱以槽痕为特征,很难分清单个反射的振幅谱特征.由于在实际运用中,以傅里叶变换相关的算法的时窗问题,难以选择好时窗长度,而且无法定量分析时窗长度产生的偏差,因而会使振幅谱的估算产生偏差.以小波变换为基础的时频分析技术成了非平稳性信号的重要分析工具,在很多实际应用中已取代了傅里叶变换的分析方法.以小波变换为基础的瞬时谱分析技术能得到精确的时频分析结果,同时避免了时窗问题.它反映出了储层在纵向上时间及厚度上变化情况和横向上的地质不连续性的信息,因此能使解释人员快速而有效地描述储层特征的空间变化.     

东昆仑活动断裂带东段古地震活动特征

东昆仑活动断裂托索湖——玛曲以东肯定那一带， 可据阿尼玛卿玛积峰为界再分为花石峡段和玛沁段两个在几何上不连续的段落. 两段在表征断层全新世活动特征的古地震事件方面有明显差异， 花石峡段的地震活动性明显高于玛沁段的地震活动性. 古地震研究表明， 花石峡段上3次强震活动相邻两次地震发生的时间间隔分别约为500 a和640 a， 玛沁段上最近两次古地震事件间大致有1 000 a左右的时间间隔. 根据断层平均滑动速率计算的花石峡段7.5级地震的平均复发间隔为411~608 a， 相对应的同震平均水平位错约为（5.75plusmn;0.57）m. 虽然玛沁段的地震活动性较弱， 但由于该段上最近一次地震事件离现在较为久远， 已经积累的应变能应该使我们对其未来地震危险性的分析有足够重视.      

水文时间系列周期分析方法探讨

以分析广东省降水周期变化规律为例，探讨了最大熵谱方法在提取水文时间系列的主次周期上以及小波变换方法在分析水文时间系列的多时间尺度演变规律上的应用。由计算结果分析得到广东省降水过程主要存在的周期特性和旱涝变化趋势，为广东省降水趋势预测提供了重要信息。     

Research on runoff variations based on wavelet analysis and wavelet neural network model: A case study of the Heihe River drainage basin (1944?2005)

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck, which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches, this paper analyzed characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge (1944–2005) and the Zhengyi Gorge (1954–2005), which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin, by wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that: (1) annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and its increasing rate is 1.04 m3/s·10y; (2) annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m3/s·10y; (3) prediction results show that: during 2006–2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies, and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m3/s·10y and 1.61 m3/s·10y; (4) the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.     

基于小波变换的反射光谱分析在蛇绿岩识别中的应用研究——以西准噶尔地区为例

介绍了基于小波变换的反射光谱分析技术的基本理论和方法;运用此技术手段对克拉玛依市白碱滩区西侧地区40条岩石野外光谱曲线数据进行了定量处理,总结并分析了蛇绿岩套中常见典型岩石(基性混杂岩、辉长岩、橄榄岩、蛇纹石)的光谱特征及其产生原因。最后,结合ETM 波段范围提出了适用于西准噶尔地区多波段遥感影像光谱角(Spectral Angle Mapper,SAM)提取模型,从遥感影像上识别蛇绿岩分布奠定了良好的基础。     

Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

Inverse groundwater modelling in the Willunga Basin,South Australia

A new inverse technique for modelling groundwater flow, based on a functional minimization technique, has been used to calibrate a groundwater flow model of a subregion of the Port Willunga aquifer within the Willunga Basin in South Australia. The Willunga Basin is the location of extensive viticulture, irrigated primarily by groundwater, the levels and quality of which have declined significantly over the last 40 years. The new method is able to generate estimates of transmissivity, storativity and groundwater recharge over the whole subregion as a time-varying continuous surface; previous methods estimate local discrete parameter values at specific times. The new method has also been shown to produce accurate head values for the subregion and very good estimates of groundwater recharge. Its ultimate goal will be to provide a new and invaluable tool for significantly improved groundwater resource management. Supported in part by US National Science Foundation grants, DMS-0107492 and DMS-0079478.