Water level variations in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries,North Carolina due to local and remote forcing

Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R² = 0.92) and PE (R² = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers.     

Distribution of phytoplankton community in relation to environmental parameters in cage culture area of Sepanggar Bay,Sabah, Malaysia

This paper covers spatial and temporal variation in phytoplankton communities and physico-chemical water properties in the cage culture area of Sepanggar Bay, Sabah, Malaysia based on field measurement conducted during July 2005 to January 2006 to study the spatial and temporal variation in phytoplankton communities and physico-chemical water properties of the bay. Phytoplankton samples and water parameters data were collected from five different stations located inside the bay during Southwest, Interseasonal and Northeast monsoons. Forty phytoplankton genera, representatives of 23 families, were found in the study area with a mean abundance of 1.55 ± 1.19 × 10⁶ cells L⁻¹. Most of these genera belong to diatoms (82.17%), Dinoflagellates (17.55%) and cyanobacteria (0.29%). Three genera were found to be dominant (>10%) in phytoplankton abundance and these were Coscinodiscus spp. (36.38%), Chaetoceros spp (17.65%) and Bacteriastrum spp. (10.98%). The most dominant genus was Coscinodiscus spp. which showed high abundance during all monsoons and stations (except Station 3). Among the seven environmental parameters tested in this study, water temperature, pH and suspended sediment concentration were found to be significantly different between monsoons. On the other hand, no significant differences were found between stations for the studied physico-chemical parameters. A clear differences in phytoplankton densities were observed between monsoons and stations with higher mean abundances during interseasonal monsoon (2.40 ± 1.37 × 10⁶ cells L⁻¹) and at station five (2.05 ± 0.74 × 10⁶ cells L⁻¹), respectively. Conversely, the diversity indices, both Shannon–Wiener (H^′)$\left(H^{\prime }\right)$ and Pielou (J^′)$\left(J^{\prime }\right)$, showed no significant difference throughout stations and monsoons (except (H^′)$\left(H^{\prime }\right)$ for monsoons). Analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) results demonstrated temporal differences in phytoplankton community structure with highly diverse phytoplankton assemblage. Through cluster analysis five groups of phytoplankton were attained (at 40% similarity level) though no marked separation of the taxonomic classes pointed towards the constant pattern of the phytoplankton assemblage in the studied area.     

Isotopic,trace element and nutrient characterization of coastal waters from Ubatuba inner shelf area,south-eastern Brazil

Stable isotopes, tritium, radium isotopes, radon, trace elements and nutrients data were collected during two sampling campaigns in the Ubatuba coastal area (south-eastern Brazil) with the aim of investigating submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in the region. The isotopic composition (δD, δ¹⁸O, ³H) of submarine waters was characterised by significant variability and heavy isotope enrichment. The stable isotopes and tritium data showed good separation of groundwater and seawater groups. The contribution of groundwater in submarine waters varied from a few % to 17%. Spatial distribution of ²²²Rn activity concentration in surface seawater revealed changes between 50 and 200 Bq m⁻³ which were in opposite relationship with observed salinities. Time series measurements of ²²²Rn activity concentration in Flamengo Bay (from 1 to 5 kBq m⁻³), obtained by in situ underwater gamma-spectrometry showed a negative correlation between the ²²²Rn activity concentration and tide/salinity. This may be caused by sea level changes as tide effects induce variations of hydraulic gradients, which increase ²²²Rn concentration during lower sea level, and opposite, during high tides where the ²²²Rn activity concentration is smaller. The estimated SGD fluxes varied during 22–26 November between 8 and 40 cm d⁻¹, with an average value of 21 cm d⁻¹ (the unit is cm³/cm² per day). The radium isotopes and nutrient data showed scattered distributions with offshore distance and salinity, which implies that in a complex coast with many small bays and islands, the area has been influenced by local currents and groundwater–seawater mixing. SGD in the Ubatuba area is fed by coastal contaminated groundwater and re-circulated seawater (with small admixtures of groundwater), which claims for potential environmental concern with implications on the management of freshwater resources in the region.     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

44 years hindcast of sea level in the Atlantic Coast of Europe

The sea level of Northeast Atlantic Ocean is calculated for the period between 1958 and 2001 using a state-of-the-art barotropic model with a grid size of 10′ × 15′ (long × lat). The model includes astronomic effects, considering seven components of the tide, and the meteorological effects of wind and atmospheric pressure, allowing obtaining the astronomic tide, the atmospheric residuals and the non-linear addition of both components of sea level.     

Theoretical Model and Dynamic Analysis of Soft Yoke Mooring System

As a popular solution for mooring an FPSO （Floating Production, Storage and Offloading） permanently in shallow water, the soft yoke mooring system has been widely used in ocean oil production activities in the Bohai Bay of China. In order to simulate the interaction mechanism and conduct dynamic analysis of the soft yoke mooring system, a theoretical model with basic dynamic equations is established. A numerical iteration algorithm based on error estimation is developed to solve the equations and calculate the dynanfic response of the mooring system due to FPSO motions. Validation is conducted by wave basin experimentation. It is shown that the numerical simulation takes only a few iteration times and the final errors are small. Furthermore, the calculated results of both the static and dynamic responses agree well with those ones obtained by the model test. It indicates that the efficiency, the precision, the reliability and the validity of the developed numerical algorithm and program are rather good. It is proposed to develop a real-time monitoring system to further monitor the dynamic performance of the FPSO with a soft yoke mooring system under various real sea environments.     

Review of recent findings on the water masses and circulation in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Recent findings on water masses, biogeochemical tracers, deep currents and basin-scale circulation in the East/Japan Sea, and numerical modeling of its circulation are reviewed. Warming continues up to 2007 despite an episode of bottom water formation in the winter of 2000–2001. Water masses have definitely changed since the 1970s and further changes are expected due to the continuation of warming. Accumulation of current data in deep waters of the East/Japan Sea reveals that the circulation in the East/Japan Sea is primarily cyclonic with sub-basin scale cyclonic and anticyclonic cells in the Ulleung Basin (Tsushima Basin). Our understanding of the circulation of intermediate water masses has been deepened through high-resolution numerical studies, and the implementation of data assimilation has had initial success. However, the East/Japan Sea is unique in terms of the fine vertical structures of physical and biogeochemical properties of cold water mass measured at the highest precision and their rapid change with the global warming, so that full understanding of the structures and their change requires in-depth process studies with continuous monitoring programs.     

Direct determination of tidal levels for engineering applications based on biological observations

The scarcity of tide gauges in a global scale and the variability of the tidal levels along contiguous coasts mainly due to changing hydrographic conditions make the determination of tidal levels, especially of the Mean Sea Level, not an easy task. Determination of such levels with a precision of about 10 cm, necessary for most coastal engineering works, is usually based on records of temporary tide gauges or on geomorphological techniques. In this paper we present an alternative approach permitting to accurately identify tidal levels with a precision suitable for civil engineering applications based on biological observations on rocky shores, including breakwaters and quays. More specifically, we present evidence that the biological zonation, i.e. the distribution of coastal species in well-defined sub-horizontal belts, is practically insensitive to seasonal and other small-scale fluctuations of the sea level and is clearly related to certain levels, mostly the Mean Low Water (MLW). This approach, somewhat similar to what has been used in the past (for instance for the determination of the geodetic vertical datum in the Republic of Venice, Italy, till approximately AD 1800), permits direct determination of the Mean Sea Level or of other tidal levels on the basis of biological observations without statistical analyses of tide-gauge records with an accuracy of 5–10 cm, especially in microtidal, low-energy coasts.     

Structure, biomass distribution and trophodynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the Oyashio region, western subarctic Pacific

Biomass distribution and trophodynamics in the oceanic ecosystem in the Oyashio region are presented and analyzed, combining the seasonal data for plankton and micronekton collected at Site H since 1996 with data for nekton and other animals at higher trophic levels from various sources. The total biomass of biological components including bacteria, phytoplankton, microzooplankton, mesozooplankton, micronekton, fishes/squids and marine birds/mammals was 23 g C m⁻², among which the most dominant component was mesozooplankton (34% of the total), followed by phytoplankton (28%), bacteria (15%) and microzooplankton (protozoans) (14%). The remainder (9%) was largely composed of micronekton and fish/squid. Marine mammals/birds are only a small fraction (0.14%) of the total biomass. Large/medium grazing copepods (Neocalaus spp., Eucalanus bungii and Metridia spp.) accounted for 77% of the mesozooplankton biomass. Based on information about diet composition, predators were assigned broadly into mean trophic level 3–4, and carbon flow through the grazing food chain was established based on the estimated annual production/food consumption balance of each trophic level. From the food chain scheme, ecological efficiencies as high as 24% were calculated for the primary/secondary production and 21% for the secondary/tertiary production. Biomass and production of bacteria were estimated as 1/10 of the respective values for phytoplankton at Site H, but the role of the microbial food chain remains unresolved in the present analysis. As keystone species in the oceanic Oyashio region, Neocalanus spp. are suggested as a vital link between primary production and production of pelagic fishes, mammals and birds.