New patterns of urban development in China

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中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。     

黄河下游沿岸农业景观中蜘蛛对非农生境的响应（英文）

Non-crop habitats have been suggested to impact local biodiversity significantly in agricultural landscapes. However, there have been few studies of the effects of less-focused non-crop habitats(orchard, wetland, pit and ditch) on variation of spider abundance. In this study, spiders in 30 woodlands were captured using pitfall traps in Fengqiu County, China, and the effects of local and landscape variations at different scales(50 m, 100 m, 200 m, 350 m and 500 m) on spider abundance were analysed. The most important variation that influenced spider abundance at the 500 m scale was the less-focused non-crop habitat(LNH) cover, and 10% was an appropriate proportion of LNH cover to sustain high level of spider diversity in the investigated landscape. Non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses revealed that there were significant differences in the spider composition among the high, medium and low LNH coverage. Based on indicator species analysis, different spider species were associated with landscapes with different levels of LNH cover. Lycosidae, which accounted for 48% of the total specimens, preferred woodland habitats neighbouring areas with high LNH cover. Compared with woodland habitats, LNH provided more diverse food sources and habitat to sustain more spider species in the study area. Furthermore, linear elements composed of vegetation, such as pits and ditches, may prevent agricultural intensification by enhancing landscape connectivity and providing habitats for different spiders. Our findings may provide a theoretical basis for biodiversity conservation in agro-ecosystems and top-down control of pests.     

京津冀城市群虚拟水贸易的近远程分析

虚拟水贸易能重新分配区域间的水资源。在京津冀协同发展的背景下,厘清京津冀城市群与外部的虚拟水贸易及城市群内部的虚拟水流动,有助于深入理解该地区的水资源供需现状及问题,为制定虚拟水贸易相关策略、实现区域水资源优化配置、保障区域水资源安全提供决策支持。本文基于2010年全国区域间投入产出表,测算了京津冀城市群各省（市）水足迹及与全国各省域单元的虚拟水贸易量。从近远程视角定量评估城市群地区对内、外部水资源的依赖程度,并分析虚拟水贸易的距离特征。研究发现：① 京津冀城市群各省（市）各部门用水系数显现出差异性,农业部门用水强度最高,直接用水与完全用水系数分别超过300 m ³/万元和400 m ³/万元;② 京津冀城市群内部各省（市）人均消费水足迹差异大,北京、天津、河北的人均水足迹分别为405 m ³、565 m ³、191 m ³;③ 京津冀城市群的消费水足迹遍布全国各省域单元,近程水足迹与远程水足迹分别为91.4亿m ³、198.5亿m ³,其中,近程水足迹主要来源于本省（市）,西部地区对远程水足迹的贡献最大;④ 京津冀城市群的虚拟水输入总体偏向来源于距离较近的省域单元,北京、天津、河北水足迹距离来源地的平均距离分别为1049 km、1297 km、688 km;⑤ 北京和天津为虚拟水贸易的净流入区,对外部水资源的依赖性强;河北为虚拟水贸易的净流出区,为京津冀城市群及其他地区供给水资源,虚拟水净流出进一步加剧了河北的水资源短缺。未来,受人口增长、经济发展等因素影响,京津冀城市群的水资源压力将进一步加剧,提高用水效率、升级产业结构、提倡低水足迹消费模式、实行虚拟水战略是实现京津冀城市群可持续发展的有效途径。     

Faith and Doubt in an American Working Landscape: The Importance of Scale,Work, and Place in Rural Development Planning

The term “working landscape” (WL) is increasingly used by American planners and policy makers to describe the rural places and livelihoods they aim to shape. This paper draws from a mixed-methods study of WL language as a collective action frame in the state of Vermont, where WL has been formalized into policy. Natural resource leaders and professionals share a common definition of WL that is supported by four key beliefs. However, interviews conducted in two representative farming communities suggest that landuse practitioners have not adopted WL language, and in some cases are skeptical of its meaning. The analysis explores potential explanations for the failure of the WL collective action frame to resonate across scales. The paper argues for a bottom-up planning approach that produces working landscapes policies that allow for diverse forms of work and accommodate the specificities of place.     

基于多源遥感数据的区域生态系统服务价值年际动态监测 ——以中原城市群为例

通过对多源遥感数据在生态系统服务价值（ESV）遥感模型中的尺度效应分析,选择满足最佳空间分辨率和长时间序列的遥感数据,对中原城市群区域2001~2013年的ESV实现了逐年逐像元水平的动态监测。结果表明：该区应用于遥感模型输入数据的最适空间分辨率为30~1 000 m,相对于30 m尺度,其他尺度估算结果的相对偏差均小于0.4%;结合年际动态监测的需求,选择了MODIS数据产品（空间分辨率500 m,时间尺度1 a）作为遥感模型的最佳数据源;研究区ESV总值在研究期内整体上呈显著增长趋势,增速约为8.6亿元/a,但在持续增长过程中经历了3次波动,且表现得越来越剧烈;在空间上,研究区ESV多年均值呈现出明显的不均衡性,表现为从西南向东部递减的趋势。研究表明此方法简单易行,初步实现了区域ESV年际动态监测遥感模型的准业务化运行。     

Water Cooperation Priorities in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin Based on Cooperative Events Since the Mekong River Commission Establishment

The Lancang-Mekong River has attracted much attention from researchers, but the cooperation on water issues in this river basin has been limited, even after the establishment of the Mekong River Commission(MRC). Cooperation on water resources has been determined as one of the key priority areas in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, but there are no details of targets. In order to establish the priorities of water cooperation under the mechanism, we adopted nine categories to classify the objectives of 87 water cooperation events based on the ‘Lancang-Mekong Water Cooperative Events Database' from 1995 to 2015. Based on the occurrence of cooperative events, cooperative objectives, cooperative scales, and approaches to cooperation, we conducted statistical, correlation, and text analyses. Our analyses indicated the following results: under the impact of economic conditions inside and outside the river basin, full cooperation appeared more difficult than bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Each of the partners adopted different preferences for cooperation targets. Cooperation with more definite objectives was easier to establish than cooperation with broader and more complex objectives. The potential objectives for water cooperation were navigation, hydropower, joint management, data sharing, flood control and water use. Because hydropower development is controversial, and because water cooperation is avoided by most existing regional cooperation mechanisms due to its complexity, we suggest the following priority areas for water cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin. 1) Navigation and flood control/drought relief are attractive objectives for all the riparian countries across the whole watershed. 2) Data sharing should be a priority for cooperation in the watershed due to its laying the foundation for the equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary waters. 3) Hydropower is an objective best implemented mainly through bilateral cooperation, and on tributaries.     

Examining the sensitivity of spatial scale in cellular automata Markov chain simulation of land use change

Understanding the spatial scale sensitivity of cellular automata is crucial for improving the accuracy of land use change simulation. We propose a framework based on a response surface method to comprehensively explore spatial scale sensitivity of the cellular automata Markov chain (CA-Markov) model, and present a hybrid evaluation model for expressing simulation accuracy that merges the strengths of the Kappa coefficient and of Contagion index. Three Landsat-Thematic Mapper remote sensing images of Wuhan in 1987, 1996, and 2005 were used to extract land use information. The results demonstrate that the spatial scale sensitivity of the CA-Markov model resulting from individual components and their combinations are both worthy of attention. The utility of our proposed hybrid evaluation model and response surface method to investigate the sensitivity has proven to be more accurate than the single Kappa coefficient method and more efficient than traditional methods. The findings also show that the CA-Markov model is more sensitive to neighborhood size than to cell size or neighborhood type considering individual component effects. Particularly, the bilateral and trilateral interactions between neighborhood and cell size result in a more remarkable scale effect than that of a single cell size.     

Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the “Belt and Road” Initiative Countries based on Virtual Water Theory

Most countries along the route of the “Belt and Road” initiative are faced with a shortage of water resources. However, successful implementation of the initiative depends on water availability to support economic and social development. We designed a water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system, assigned grades and weights to each evaluation index and calculated a water resources carrying index for the 65 countries along the route. We used virtual water theory to analyze China’s net virtual water import from key bulk agricultural products through international trade. For more than half of the countries along the route, their water resources will be unable to support the economic development that will be necessary for fulfilling the goals of the Initiative. As a country with insufficient water resources carrying capacity, China is a net virtual water importer in the virtual water trade. This virtual water trade can improve China’s water resources support capacity, and ensure China’s water and food security for the future.     

无人机机载LiDAR在沿海滩涂大比例尺地形测绘中的应用

以南京市以下长江12.5 m深水航道建设工程中的白茆沙整治建筑物工程的年度监测为例,介绍了利用无人机航摄和机载LiDAR技术进行大比例尺高精度的滩涂地理信息数据采集的关键技术。研究案例表明,采用无人机搭载数码相机和LiDAR联合进行数据采集,在小区域、通行困难地区的高分辨率影像和地面高程数据快速获取方面具有明显优势,为沿海滩涂开发中的工程用图测绘工作提供了一种新的有效快捷的技术手段。