SOME ASPECTS OF OBJECTIVE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

As shown in a statistical analysis of the relationship between environmental fields at varied timeand tropical cyclone motion, the forecasting ability of the initisl environmental field predictors for tropical cyclone motion decreases with the increase of valid time period of forecast;it is higher with these predictors at a fUture time than at an initial time. The work also indicates that for the tropical cyclone motion over a given period of valid forecast, better predictors appear at times mostly differing from thevalid periods; for periods at 48-120 h the environmental predictors at 48-72 h are more capable of forecasting. With statistical interpretation of NWP products, a predictive model for tropical cyclone motionis superior in performance over a statistical forecasting model that employes predictors of the initial field in the basic framework. The concluding remarks can be used as reference in the construction of an objective prediction model for tropical cyclone motion.     

全球构造运动与地球自转相关性的新证据

近20年来,国际地学界不同领域的学者应用多种先进的手段与方法,对现今地球各圈层的水平运动分别进行了长期观测与研究,揭示出地球不同圈层水平运动的基本规律,为全球构造运动与地球自转的相关性提供了新的重要证据。
对地球不同圈层水平速度矢量场的对比分析发现,现今地球各个圈层均存在速率量级不同的总体西向运动的特征,不同圈层的水平运动速度矢量场具有高度的相似性,且与地球自转密切相关;在中低纬度地区,各圈层西向速度矢量居主导地位;在中高纬度地区形成一些东向回流;速率大小与纬度存在统计相关关系,纬度愈小,速率愈大;岩石圈稳态水平运动速率在纬度φ=0°与φ=35°呈极大值。      

时变地震谱估计的非参数方法评价及应用

针对工程中常见的非平稳地震动激励,进一步建立了时变功率谱估计的理论框架。首先,在多个样本情形下,采用信号处理中的时频分析方法对非平稳激励的时变谱估计理论进行了讨论。当激励样本数量有限时,对Priestley提出的估计方法进行了介绍。其次,以地震工程中常用的Kanai-Tajimi谱模型为目标,分别对均匀调制与一般调制谱的估计结果以及不同估计方法的精度与收敛性进行评价后,提出了能够方便工程应用的建议。最后,针对SMART-Ⅰ(Strong Motion Array in Taiwan,Phase Ⅰ)密集台阵第45次地震记录的多组三维样本,揭示了EW、NS、UD三个方向时变谱的典型特征以及各方向间的时变相干性。结果表明:与短时Fourier变换相比,复Morlet小波与广义谐和小波估计谱具有较好的精度与收敛性,Priestley方法估计单个样本具有优势;SMART-Ⅰ台阵地震动具有强度和频率的双重非平稳性,三个方向具有弱相干性。研究结论可为拓展谱估计理论的工程应用以及后续大跨结构多维多点非平稳地震响应的分析提供参考。     

陕南村镇房屋抗震性能调查研究

村镇房屋是历次震害中最薄弱的建筑,提高其抗震性能刻不容缓。本文依据《中国地震动参数区划图》（GB18306-2015）的地震动峰值加速度、反应谱特征周期和地震烈度的取值,以陕南6县18镇54个自然村的1161栋村镇房屋为抽样样本,完成样本的结构类型、结构类型的破坏比及破坏损失比、场地条件、抗震概念设计、村民的抗震知识和抗震防灾意识等现状的统计分析。结果表明:陕南村镇房屋的结构类型有生土结构、木结构、砖木结构、砖混结构和框架结构,其中砖混结构是其主要的抗震结构类型;砖木结构、砖混结构和框架结构在不同地震烈度影响下的破坏比有差异,而破坏损失比相同;陕南村镇房屋的场地条件变化复杂,抗震概念设计存在缺陷且村民的抗震知识和抗震防灾意识淡薄,亟待提高。     

利用唐山地震台资料研究唐山断裂活动特征

本文研究了唐山地震台内的唐山断裂形变、断层活动协调比、断层土壤气CO₂的变化特征。结果显示,唐山地震台内的唐山断裂近35年来整体上在水平方向呈微弱的右旋张性活动,垂直方向呈正断活动,但不同时段的运动状态有所不同;综合分析认为,唐山地震台形变和流体前兆观测对附近及华北因区域地壳应力场调整引起的中小地震有一定的显示,说明该台具有一定的前兆异常显示能力;随着观测资料和经验的持续积累,在该区域发生更大地震前,有望捕捉到更显著的前兆异常。     

Information theory measures for the engineering validation of ground‐motion simulations

This short communication introduces a quantitative approach for the engineering validation of ground‐motion simulations based on information theory concepts and statistical hypothesis testing. Specifically, we use the Kullback‐Leibler divergence to measure the similarity of the probability distributions of recorded and simulated ground‐motion intensity measures (IMs). We demonstrate the application of the proposed validation approach to ground‐motion simulations computed by using a variety of methods, including Graves and Pitarka hybrid broadband, the deterministic composite source model, and a stochastic white noise finite‐fault model. Ground‐motion IMs, acting as proxies for the (nonlinear) seismic response of more complex engineered systems, are considered herein to validate the considered ground‐motion simulation methods. The list of considered IMs includes both spectral‐shape and duration‐related proxies, shown to be the optimal IMs in several probabilistic seismic demand models of different structural types, within the framework of performance‐based earthquake engineering. The proposed validation exercise (1) can highlight the similarities and differences between simulated and recorded ground motions for a given simulation method and/or (2) allow the ranking of the performance of alternative simulation methods. The similarities between records and simulations should provide confidence in using the simulation method for engineering applications, while the discrepancies should help in improving the tested method for the generation of synthetic records.     

Rocking amplification and strong‐motion duration

This paper characterizes the ability of natural ground motions to induce rocking demands on rigid structures. In particular, focusing on rocking blocks of different size and slenderness subjected to a large number of historic earthquake records, the study unveils the predominant importance of the strong‐motion duration to rocking amplification (ie, peak rocking response without overturning). It proposes original dimensionless intensity measures (IMs), which capture the total duration (or total impulse accordingly) of the time intervals during which the ground motion is capable of triggering rocking motion. The results show that the proposed duration‐based IMs outperform all other examined (intensity, frequency, duration, and/or energy‐based) scalar IMs in terms of both “efficiency” and “sufficiency.” Further, the pertinent probabilistic seismic demand models offer a prediction of the peak rocking demand, which is adequately “universal” and of satisfactory accuracy. Lastly, the analysis shows that an IM that “efficiently” captures rocking amplification is not necessarily an “efficient” IM for predicting rocking overturning, which is dominated by the velocity characteristics (eg, peak velocity) of the ground motion.     

球状星团M3天区534颗恒星的绝对自行测定

以《Hipparcos星表》体现的国际天球参考架为基础 ,对球状星团M3(NGC 5 2 72 )中心附近 10 0′×10 0′天区内 5 34颗恒星 ,使用上海天文台佘山 4 0cm折射望远镜拍摄的底片资料 ,以 8颗《Hipparcos星表》中恒星和 4 9颗《Tycho - 2星表》中恒星的位置和绝对自行为参考 ,归算得到了位置和绝对自行 ,并估计了成员概率     

深水圆筒型钻井平台张紧式系泊系统设计

基于我国南海海域环境条件,对一座深水圆筒型钻井平台设计一套张紧式系泊定位系统,利用SESAM软件对平台运动响应和缆索张力进行分析计算,得到主要运动响应为纵荡、纵摇和垂荡。分别考虑0°和180°的环境载荷方向,对比得到0°方向的缆索张力更大,且6号和7号缆承受了主要的环境力。分析了平台运动的影响因素,认为缆索夹角设定为35°时较优,适度增大系泊缆初始长度和减小两端锚链长度可较为有效地降低系泊缆受力,系泊缆总根数保持12时（4根×3组）为最优方案。根据分析结果对初始系泊方案进行了优化,在风暴工况下系泊缆最大受力减小了约14.8%。钻井作业工况和一根系泊缆破断工况下,系泊缆受力和平台位移均能满足规范要求。     

基于谱比法的江苏强震动台站场地特征分析

选取江苏省强震动台网近年来获得的强震动记录,基于水平竖向谱比法(HVSR),计算了22个强震动台站的速度反应谱平均谱比曲线,采用谱比形状一致法进行场地分类,并结合典型台站场地的工程地质资料进行对比分析。研究结果表明,平均谱比曲线的卓越周期、场地放大等特征与台站场地地质资料相吻合,与传统场地分类方法相比,基于谱比法的场地特征分类方法能够突出不同场地的地震动反应特征,较好地体现了台站的场地反应特征。