Numerical results to the Sitnikov-problem

We present numerical results of the so-called Sitnikov-problem, a special case of the three-dimensional elliptic restricted three-body problem. Here the two primaries have equal masses and the third body moves perpendicular to the plane of the primaries' orbit through their barycenter. The circular problem is integrable through elliptic integrals; the elliptic case offers a surprisingly great variety of motions which are until now not very well known. Very interesting work was done by J. Moser in connection with the original Sitnikov-paper itself, but the results are only valid for special types of orbits. As the perturbation approach needs to have small parameters in the system we took in our experiments as initial conditions for the work moderate eccentricities for the primaries' orbit (0.33e _primaries 0.66) and also a range of initial conditions for the distance of the 3 ^rd body (= the planet) from very close to the primaries orbital plane of motion up to distance 2 times the semi-major axes of their orbit. To visualize the complexity of motions we present some special orbits and show also the development of Poincaré surfaces of section with the eccentricity as a parameter. Finally a table shows the structure of phase space for these moderately chosen eccentricities.     

Near-fault strong motion complexity of the 2000 Tottori earthquake (Japan) from a broadband source asperity model

The October 6/2000 Tottori earthquake that occurred in central Japan was an intermediate size strike-slip event that produced a very large number of near field strong motion recordings. The large amount of recorded data provides a unique opportunity for investigating a source asperity model of the Tottori earthquake that, combined with a hybrid strong motion simulation technique, is able to reproduce the observed broadband frequency near-fault ground motion.

We investigated the optimum source asperity parameters of the Tottori earthquake, by applying a Genetic Algorithm (GA) inversion scheme to optimise the fitting between simulated and observed response spectra and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values. We constrained the initial model of our inversion by using the heterogeneous slip distribution obtained from a kinematic inversion of the source of previous studies. We used all the observed near-fault ground motions (−100 m) from the borehole strong motion network of Japan (KiK-Net), which are little affected by surficial geology (site effects).

The calculation of broadband frequency strong ground motion (0.1–10 Hz) is achieved by applying a hybrid technique that combines a deterministic simulation of the wave propagation for the low frequencies and a semi-stochastic modelling approach for the high frequencies. For the simulation of the high frequencies, we introduce a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model that efficiently removes the dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The good agreement between the observed and simulated broadband ground motions shows that our inversion procedure is successful in estimating the optimum asperity parameters of the Tottori earthquake and provides a good test for the strong ground motion simulation technique.

The ratio of background stress drop to average asperity stress drop from our inversion is nearly 50%, in agreement with the theoretical asperity model of Das and Kostrov [Das, S., Kostrov, B.V., 1986. Fracture of a single asperity on a finite fault: a model for weak earthquakes? Earthquake Source Mechanics, AGU, pp. 91–96.], and an empirical ratio of asperities to rupture area [Seismol. Res. Lett. 70 (1999) 59–80.].

The simulated radiation pattern is very complex for epicentral distances within half the fault length, but it approaches the radiation of a double-couple point source for larger distances.

The rupture velocity and rise time have a significant influence on the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) distribution around the fault. An increase in rupture velocity produces a similar effect on the ground motion as a reduction in rise time.     

Seismic hazard maps of Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America

The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard and/or economic constraints. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. We have produced a suite of seismic hazard estimates for Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. One of the preliminary maps in this suite served as the basis for the Caribbean and Central and South America portion of the Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHM) published in 1999, which depicted peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. Herein we present maps depicting pga and 0.2 and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) with 50%, 10%, and 2% chances of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. The seismicity catalog used in the generation of these maps adds 3 more years of data to those used to calculate the GSH Map. Different attenuation functions (consistent with those used to calculate the U.S. and Canadian maps) were used as well. These nine maps are designed to assist in global risk mitigation by providing a general seismic hazard framework and serving as a resource for any national or regional agency to help focus further detailed studies required for regional/local needs. The largest seismic hazard values in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. High hazard values occur in areas where shallow-to-intermediate seismicity occurs frequently.     

Accounting for site effect in probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard for Romania and Bucharest: a case of deep seismicity in Vrancea zone

The paper presents recent achievements in evaluations of site-dependent seismic hazard in Romania and the capital city of Bucharest caused by the Vrancea focal zone (SE-Carpathians). The zone is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depths 60–170 km. The database that was used for the hazard evaluation includes parameters of seismicity, ground-motion source scaling and attenuation models (Fourier amplitude spectra), and site-dependent spectral amplification functions. Ground-motion characteristics were evaluated on the basis of several hundred records from more than 120 small magnitude (M 3.5–5) earthquakes occurred in 1996–2001 and a few tens of acceleration records obtained during four large (M 7.4, 7.2, 6.9 and 6.3) earthquakes. The data provide a basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and MSK intensity using Fourier amplitude spectra for various exceedance probabilities or average return periods. It has been shown that the influence of geological factors plays very important role in distribution of earthquake ground-motion parameters along the territory of Romania.     

Realistic Modeling of Seismic Wave Ground Motion in Beijing City

— Algorithms for the calculation of synthetic seismograms in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media have been applied to model the ground motion in Beijing City. The synthetic signals are compared with the few available seismic recordings (1998, Zhangbei earthquake) and with the distribution of observed macroseismic intensity (1976, Tangshan earthquake). The synthetic three-component seismograms have been computed for the Xiji area and Beijing City. The numerical results show that the thick Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are responsible for the severe amplification of the seismic ground motion. Such a result is well correlated with the abnormally high macroseismic intensity zone in the Xiji area associated with the 1976 Tangshan earthquake as well as with the ground motion recorded in Beijing city in the wake of the 1998 Zhangbei earthquake.     

Attenuation relations of Arias intensity based on the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake data

This paper presents a derivation of attenuation relations of Arias intensity for various site conditions based on the strong-motion data recorded in the 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake. The data are from the mainshock and three large aftershocks with stations in the footwall area and in the area away from the fault. At each station, Arias intensity is computed from two horizontal acceleration time histories. The Arias intensity data are separated into four groups according to site classes assigned to recording stations. For each site class, the attenuation relation of Arias intensity is derived using a two-step regression analysis method. The attenuation relations established in this study can be used to estimate Arias intensity from a rupture of a thrust fault for sites in the footwall area or in the area away from the fault.     

大洋海岭相对运动的测定及其分析

基于现今实测全球板块运动模型ITRF2000VEL，分别建立了相对东太平洋海岭和南北大西洋海岭的绝对板块运动模型PRF-ITRF2000VEL、SRF-ITRF2000VEL和NRF-ITRF2000VEL，由此分析了大洋海岭间的相对运动，表明大西洋海岭与东太平洋海岭以平均10．9mm/a的速度在张开，反映了大洋海岭并非固定，由此得到的绝对板块运动模型均是“相对”的绝对板块运动模型。     

THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I：USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL

1INTRODUCTIONErrorsofnumericalforecastingcomprisethoseintheinitialvalue,modelandcomputationandthefirstkindoferrorbecomesmoreandmoreoutstandingwiththeon-goingdevelopmentofcomputersandnumericalmodels.Subjecttoavailableobservationmeans,therealatmosphereisanythingbutapproximatelymeasured.Meanwhile,oneshouldpayattentiontothepossibility,assuggestedbyLorenz[1],thatanyslightdifferencesduringtheinitialstatemayleadtoresultsthatturnouttobetotallydissimilarfromwhatwouldbeexpectedotherwise,asfarasdefi…     

Testing of the IERS2000 Sub-Daily Earth Rotation Parameter Model

The differences between the new International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) 2000 and the previous IERS1996 sub-daily Earth rotation parameters (ERP) models can reach 0.1 mas (0.001 arc sec) and 0.1 mas/day. The largest differences are seen for the aliasing periods of 14.2 and 360 days, which correspond to the diurnal tidal waves of O1 and (K1, P1), respectively. Precise independent polar motion (PM) rate solutions effectively doubles the sampling rate and allows for effective testing of sub-daily ERP models and other periodical effects at the diurnal and semi-diurnal frequency bands. Since November 12, 2000, when the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Analysis Center of International GPS Service (IGS) has switched to the conventional IERS1996 sub-daily ERP model, from the older model of Herring and Dog (1994), the JPL daily PM rate solutions show no, or greatly reduced 14.2 day amplitude (O1) peaks. This confirmed that the anomalistic amplitudes at 14.2 day period seen for JPL PM solutions prior November 12, 2000 was largely due to the effects of the older sub-daily ERP model on independent PM rate solutions. As indicated by the latest IGS PM rate solutions, which were corrected for the IERS1996 and 2000 model differences, the new IERS2000 sub-daily ERP model is expected to perform equally well as the conventional IERS1996 model.     

Pattern of latest tectonic motion and its dynamics for active blocks in Sichuan-Yunnan region, China

Based on the concept of "active blocks" and spatial distribution of historical earthquakes with surface ruptures as well as major and subordinate active faults. The Sichuan-Yunnan region can be divided into four first-order blocks. They are the Markam block (I), the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block (II), Baoshan-Pu'er block (III), and Mizhina-Ximeng block (IV). Cut by sub-ordinate NE-trending active faults, the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block (II) can be further divided into two sub-blocks: the northwestern Sichuan sub-block (II1) and the middle Yunnan sub-block (II2), while the Baoshan- Pu'er block (III) can be further divided into three sub-blocks: Baoshan sub-block (III1), Jinggu sub-block (III2), and Mengla sub-block (III3). A quantitative study of offset landforms is carried out and the basic types of active faults and their long-term slip rates along the major boundaries of active blocks of different orders in the Sichuan-Yunnan region are determined, through slip vector analysis, the motion states of the active blocks are clarified and the deformation coordination on the block margins is discussed. It is suggested that the tectonic motion of the blocks in this region is a complex or superimposition of three basic types of motions: southeastward sliding, rotating on vertical axis, and uplifting. The Markam block (I), the northwestern Sichuan sub-block (II1), and middle Yunnan sub-block (II2) have a southeastward horizontal sliding rate of 1-5 mm/a, clockwise rotating angular rate of 1.4-4(/Ma, and uplifting rate of about 1 mm/a. The Baoshan-Pu'er (III) and Mizhina-Ximeng (IV) blocks have also been extensively clockwise rotated. This pattern of motion is a strain response to the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates and the localized deformation and differential slip on the block margins associated with the northward motion of the Indian Plate. Because a set of transverse thrusts between the blocks absorbs and transforms some components of eastward or southeastward sliding motion, the eastward escape or extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau is limited as "imbricated thrusting transformation-limited extrusion model".