滑坡对降雨响应的多指标监测及综合预警探析:以赣南罗坳滑坡为例

降雨量和位移是当前降雨型滑坡监测预警最常用的指标。然而,降雨量和位移监测结果只能反映降雨作用下滑坡的变形情况,不能揭示滑坡内在物理力学性状对降雨的响应。因此,除降雨量和位移监测之外,建立包括体积含水率、基质吸力等反映滑坡动态演化过程的关键指标监测体系必将成为今后更真实地把握滑坡内在演化趋势、更准确地建立滑坡综合预警判据的最有效手段。笔者对赣南地区典型降雨型滑坡进行了多指标监测及综合预警示范研究。结果表明:(1)在降雨条件下滑坡土体内部体积含水率、基质吸力和温度等多指标均产生有规律的动态响应;(2)随着降雨的持续,滑体体积含水率与基质吸力的变化均具有显著的滞后现象;(3)体积含水率和基质吸力变化速率与滑体位移具有显著的正相关性;(4)滑体温度分布变化规律受大气温度和体积含水率的共同影响。以实测数据的滑坡稳定性分析为基准,在考虑实际降雨入渗深度与滑坡稳定性的关联度上,建立了包括日降雨量、体积含水率增加速率、基质吸力减小速率以及位移速度多元指标预警方法体系,提出了基于关键指标综合预警体系及确定方法,旨在为降雨滑坡准确预警提供新模式。     

随机森林模型预测岩溶区酸性煤矿井水锰污染

酸性煤矿井水严重威胁地下水的水质。如何更有效对受影响区域的地下水源进行动态监测是当前的一个关键问题。采用随机森林中的回归模型,利用自变量(采空区水位、岩溶水位、pH值、泉水流量、电导率)和因变量(污染离子浓度)的相关性,建立回归模型;使用测试数据进行误差分析,结果证明模型准度较高,所得预测值具有参考价值;得出各自变量对因变量影响的重要程度,分析结果与实际情况相符合。试验表明,随机森林回归模型在酸性煤矿井水污染预测方面具有适用性,可作为辅助手段监测水质污染情况,对今后工作有一定的指导意义和经济价值。     

Spatial landslide susceptibility assessment using machine learning techniques assisted by additional data created with generative adversarial networks

In recent years,landslide susceptibility mapping has substantially improved with advances in machine learning.However,there are still challenges remain in landslide mapping due to the availability of limited inventory data.In this paper,a novel method that improves the performance of machine learning techniques is presented.The proposed method creates synthetic inventory data using Generative Adversarial Networks(GANs)for improving the prediction of landslides.In this research,landslide inventory data of 156 landslide locations were identified in Cameron Highlands,Malaysia,taken from previous projects the authors worked on.Elevation,slope,aspect,plan curvature,profile curvature,total curvature,lithology,land use and land cover(LULC),distance to the road,distance to the river,stream power index(SPI),sediment transport index(STI),terrain roughness index(TRI),topographic wetness index(TWI)and vegetation density are geo-environmental factors considered in this study based on suggestions from previous works on Cameron Highlands.To show the capability of GANs in improving landslide prediction models,this study tests the proposed GAN model with benchmark models namely Artificial Neural Network(ANN),Support Vector Machine(SVM),Decision Trees(DT),Random Forest(RF)and Bagging ensemble models with ANN and SVM models.These models were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC).The DT,RF,SVM,ANN and Bagging ensemble could achieve the AUROC values of(0.90,0.94,0.86,0.69 and 0.82)for the training;and the AUROC of(0.76,0.81,0.85,0.72 and 0.75)for the test,subsequently.When using additional samples,the same models achieved the AUROC values of(0.92,0.94,0.88,0.75 and 0.84)for the training and(0.78,0.82,0.82,0.78 and 0.80)for the test,respectively.Using the additional samples improved the test accuracy of all the models except SVM.As a result,in data-scarce environments,this research showed that utilizing GANs to generate supplementary samples is promising because it can improve the predictive capability of common landslide prediction models.     

Geochronological and geochemical evidence for a Late Ordovician to Silurian arc-back-arc system in the northern Great Xing'an Range,NE China

The early Paleozoic tectonic evolution of the Xing'an-Mongolian Orogenic Belt is dominated by two oceanic basins on the northwestern and southeastern sides of the Xing'an Block,i.e.,the Xinlin-Xiguitu Ocean and the Nenjiang Ocean.However,the early development of the Nenjiang Ocean remains unclear.Here,we present zircon U-Pb geochronology and whole-rock elemental and Sr-Nd isotopic data on the gabbros in the Xinglong area together with andesitic tuffs and basalts in the Duobaoshan area.LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating of gabbros and andesitic tuffs yielded crystallization ages of 443-436 Ma and 452-451 Ma,respectively.The Early Silurian Xinglong gabbros show calc-alkaline and E-MORB affinities but they are enriched in LILEs,and depleted in HFSEs,with relatively low U/Th ratios of 0.18-0.36 andεNd(t)values of-1.6 to+0.5.These geochemical features suggest that the gabbros might originate from a mantle wedge modified by pelagic sediment-derived melts,consistent with a back-arc basin setting.By contrast,the andesitic tuffs are characterized by high MgO(>5 wt.%),Cr(138-200 ppm),and Ni(65-110 ppm)contents,and can be termed as high-Mg andesites.Their low Sr/Y ratios of 15.98-17.15 and U/Th values of 0.24-0.25 and moderate(La/Sm)_n values of 3.07-3.26 are similar to those from the Setouchi Volcanic Belt(SW Japan),and are thought to be derived from partial melting of subducted sediments,and subsequent melt-mantle interaction.The Duobaoshan basalts have high Nb(8.44-10.30 ppm)and TiO2 contents(1.17-1.60 wt.%),typical of Nb-enriched basalts.They are slightly younger than regional adakitic rocks and have positiveεNd(t)values of+5.2 to+5.7 and are interpreted to be generated by partial melting of a depleted mantle source metasomatized by earlier adakitic melts.Synthesized with coeval arc-related igneous rocks from the southeastern Xing'an Block,we propose that the Duobaoshan high-Mg andesitic tuffs and Nbenriched basalts are parts of the Late Ordovician and Silurian Sonid Zuoqi-Duobaoshan arc belt,and they were formed by the northwestern subduction of the Nenjiang Ocean.Such a subduction beneath the integrated Xing'an-Erguna Block also gave rise to the East Ujimqin-Xinglong igneous belt in a continental back-arc basin setting.Our new data support an early Paleozoic arc-back-arc model in the northern Great Xing'an Range.     

市级自然资源调查监测体系构建探索——以徐州市为例

自然资源调查是实现自然资源统一管理的重要前提和基础性工作。本文通过对自然资源分类体系、调查方案和数据库组织的研究,构建了以第三次国土调查和各类专项调查数据为基础的自然资源调查监测体系,提出了新的数据库组织和更新方法,并在江苏省徐州市进行了实践验证,形成了地市级调查成果,旨在为全国范围内地级市自然资源调查工作提供参考,构建可复制、可推广的调查体系。     

应用分布式存储技术优化省级CIMISS数据服务能力

随着气象数据量的不断增长,进一步提升CIMISS数据管理和服务能力的需求变得日益迫切。为解决存储系统动态扩展能力不足、并行计算与吞吐效率低下等限制CIMISS继续发展的问题,采用分布式文件系统和NAS技术替代GPFS建设共享文件系统,实现非结构化气象数据的存储功能;采用分布式数据库替代Oracle RAC建设关系数据库管理系统,实现结构化气象数据的存储功能和非结构化气象数据的索引功能。实践证明,该方案能够有效地改善CIMISS的数据存储能力、并发响应能力,适应未来气象业务对数据存储和应用的需求。     

广西气象数据中心机房供电系统设计与保障

针对供配电系统容易发生的安全隐患,优化设计配电系统结构、采用一体化运维监控平台和采用高质量、高可靠性的设备,消除单点故障瓶颈,确保在停电、设备故障、维修维护等各种情况下提供不中断或快速恢复供电,避免停电对业务正常运行造成影响,确保机房供电安全。     

太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋酸化影响的模拟研究

研究地球工程对海洋酸化的影响对于评估地球工程对全球气候和环境的影响有重要意义。文中使用中等复杂程度的地球系统模式,模拟了典型CO₂高排放情景RCP8.5下,实施太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋表面的pH和文石（碳酸钙的一种亚稳形态）饱和度的影响,并定量分析了各环境因子对海洋酸化影响的机理。模拟结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年,相对于工业革命前水平,全球海洋表面平均pH下降了0.43,文石饱和度下降了1.77。相对于RCP8.5情景,2100年地球工程情景下全球海洋表面平均pH增加了0.003,而文石饱和度降低了0.16。地球工程通过改变溶解无机碳、碱度、温度等环境因子影响海洋酸化。相对于RCP8.5情景,实施地球工程引起的溶解无机碳浓度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均减小,碱度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均增大,温度的降低使pH增大而使文石饱和度减小。总体而言,太阳辐射管理地球工程可以降低全球温度,但无法减缓海洋酸化。     

基于阈值可调切换系统的多翅膀混沌吸引子设计及电路仿真

本文提出了一种通过调节一类状态依赖切换系统的阈值来生成多翅膀混沌吸引子的设计方案.首先,设计了两个类Lorenz子系统;然后,基于这两个子系统构造了一个状态依赖于阈值的切换策略,从而构造了一类状态依赖于阈值的切换系统;最后,通过调整切换系统的阈值来改变鞍焦平衡点的个数与分布,使得该切换系统能够产生4-6-8翅膀的混沌吸引子.此外,根据切换系统的状态方程设计了该系统的模拟电路,电路仿真结果与数值仿真结果一致.实验结果证实：该设计方案可以在不增加系统维数或无需设计复杂非线性函数的情况下生成多翅膀混沌吸引子.     

文本特征提取的研究进展

文本理解是人工智能的一个重要分支,其技术推动了人与计算机之间在自然语言上的有效交互.为了让计算机准确地理解和感知文本数据,文本特征提取是最为基础和关键的步骤之一.基于此,本文介绍文本特征提取研究的发展历史,以及近年来主流特征提取的方法,并对未来的研究方向进行展望.首先,介绍语义最底层的词级表示;接着,总结在词级表示基础上衍生出的句级表示上的研究进展;随后,介绍比词级表示和句级表示更高层的篇分析;最后,通过文本特征提取的一个典型应用——问答系统的介绍,阐述文本特征提取的最新方法和技术在问答系统上的应用,并对未来的研究方向做了展望.