Flood forecasting with a watershed model: a new method of parameter updating

Abstract

Flood forecasting is of prime importance when it comes to reducing the possible number of lives lost to storm-induced floods. Because rainfall-runoff models are far from being perfect, hydrologists need to continuously update outputs from the rainfall-runoff model they use, in order to adapt to the actual emergency situation. This paper introduces a new updating procedure that can be combined with conceptual rainfall-runoff models for flood forecasting purposes. Conceptual models are highly nonlinear and cannot easily accommodate theoretically optimal methods such as Kalman filtering. Most methods developed so far mainly update the states of the system, i.e. the contents of the reservoirs involved in the rainfall-runoff model. The new parameter updating method proves to be superior to a standard error correction method on four watersheds whose floods can cause damage to the greater Paris area. Moreover, further developments of the approach are possible, especially along the idea of combining parameter updating with assimilation of additional data such as soil moisture data from field measurements and/or from remote sensing.     

Tectonic evolution of the West Kunlun Orogenic Belt along the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau:Implications for the assembly of the Tarim terrane to Gondwana

The West Kunlun orogenic belt(WKOB) along the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is important for understanding the evolution of the Proto-and Paleo-Tethys oceans. Previous investigations have focused on the igneous rocks and ophiolites distributed mostly along the Xinjiang-Tibet road and the China-Pakistan road, and have constructed a preliminary tectonic model for this orogenic belt. However, few studies have focused on the so-called Precambrian basement in this area. As a result, the tectonic affinity of the individual terranes of the WKOB and their detailed evolution process are uncertain. Here we report new field observations, zircon and monazite U-Pb ages of the "Precambrian basement" of the South Kunlun terrane(SKT) and the Tianshuihai terrane(TSHT), two major terranes in the WKOB. Based on new zircon U-Pb age data, the amphibolite-facies metamorphosed volcanosedimentary sequence within SKT was deposited during the late Neoproterozoic to Cambrian(600-500 Ma), and the flysch-affinity Tianshuihai Group, as the basement of the TSHT, was deposited during the late Neoproterozoic rather than Mesoproterozoic. The rock association of the volcano-sedimentary sequence within SKT suggests a large early Paleozoic accretionary wedge formed by the long-term lowangle southward subduction of the Proto-Tethys Ocean between Tarim and TSHT. The amphibolitefacies metamorphism in SKT occurred at ca. 440 Ma. This ca. 440 Ma metamorphism is genetically related to the closure of the Proto-Tethys Ocean between Tarim and the Tianshuihai terrane, which led to the assembly of Tarim to Eastern Gondwana and the final formation of the Gondwana. Since the late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic, the northward subduction of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean along the HongshihuQiaoertianshan belt produced the voluminous early Mesozoic arc-signature granites along the southern part of NKT-TSHT. The Paleo-Tethys ocean between TSHT and Karakorum closed at ca. 200 Ma, as demonstrated by the monazite age of the paragneiss in the Kangxiwa Group. Our study does not favor the existence of a Precambrian basement in SKT.     

一种基于数据机制的DBM模型及其应用

将DBM(Data Based Mechanistic)模型应用到辽东森林小流域——大湖沟,分别以其2006年6月和2007年7月数据构建研究区丰水期和枯水期的DBM模型,拟合效率系数分别为0.952 8和0.837 8,模型拟合效果在验证期的不同时段表现出明显的差异性。对丰水期模型参数用固定时间间隔法(FIS)进行时变性分析,发现参数b的取值随时间产生变化。对枯水期的二阶DBM模型进行快、慢流分解,得出了连续时间当量的快、慢流的平均滞后时间分别为5.3h和243.3h。     

Eco-environmental spatial characteristics of Fildes Peninsula based on TuPu models

This study applies a TuPu analysis to investigate ecological and environmental aspects of an Antarctic ice-free area, using Fildes Peninsula as an example. The TuPu unit was determined using a vector-grid mixed data model. Information from the eco-environment elements was effectively extracted, and was generalized into different classes by means of data mining technol- ogy. A series of single-factor thematic information TuPu models, such as topography, soil, animal and vegetation, and human activities for Fildes Peninsula were built in this study. The topography TuPu model contained information on elevation and slope. The soil TuPu model involved soil development stages and soil thickness information. The animal and vegetation TuPu model contained the distribution of animals, plant types, lichen cover and lichen height. The human activities TuPu model included popu- lation density and human disturbance index information. The landscape comprehensive information TuPu model of Fildes Penin- sula also was established, and contains twenty-nine landscape units and twelve types of combined environments. The study quan- titatively revealed the spatial morphology and correlation of the regional eco-environment based on the analysis of these TuPu models. From these models, we can draw the conclusion that there is a regular differentiation of eco-environment from the coastal bands to the central hills in Fildes Peninsula, and that the eco-environment condition of the eastern coasts is different from that of the western coasts. The eco-environmental spatial variation also differs greatly from north to south. Based on analysis of spatial correlation, the vegetation in Fildes Peninsula has the greatest correlation with human activity, and has a certain correlation with topography and soil. This research may provide a new technical approach and scientific basis for the in-depth study of Antarctic eco-environments.     

Two new species of Vestrogothia (Phosphatocopina, Crustacea) of Orsten-type preservation from the Upper Cambrian in western Hunan, South China

Although fossils of Orsten-type preservation represented by Skaracarida and Phosphatocopina were first reported from the Middle and Upper Cambrian in western Hunan, South China in 2005, diversified phosphatocopine species have never been appropriately described and elucidated in terms of their evolutionary relationships. Here, we described two new species of Phosphatocopina, Vestrogothia anterispinata sp. nov. and V. bispinata sp. nov. The evolutionary relationship among all the valid species of Phosphatoco...     

Synchronizing seismic networks with ambient noise

The technique of retrieving Green's functions by pairwise correlation of a random wavefield is used to estimate the stability of the timing system of a seismic network. The method is demonstrated with data from a network consisting of stations with four independent clocks and GPS-receivers. For a two years period, daily measurements of the timing error of each of the four systems are obtained. These measurements can be used to correct the timing of the data in periods without GPS reception. The accuracy of this method can exceed the precision of the internal station clocks already after a single day of uncorrected drift.     

A new method to determine the tropopause

The tropopause has a complex structure and some interference information may exist in high-resolution global positioning system （GPS）/low earth-orbiting （LEO） radio occultation （RO） data. The position of the tropopause cannot be accurately determined using traditional cold point tropopause （CPT） and lapse rate tropopause （LRT） algorithms. In this paper, an integrative algorithm is developed to determinate tropopause parameters. The algorithm is applied to GPS/COSMIC RO data to obtain a global distribution of the height and temperature of the tropopause. This algorithm improves the utilization rate of GPS/LEO RO data by 30% compared with that from the traditional CPT method. The rationality and reliability of GPS/LEO RO data in probing the Earth＇s atmosphere are verified by our study of the tropopause using COSMIC data.     

Analysis of recent climate change over the Arctic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data

This study investigates recent climate change over the Arctic and its link to the mid-latitudes using the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast （ECMWF）. Since 1979, sub- stantial surface warming, associated with the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, has occurred over the Arctic. The great- est warming in winter has taken place offshore in the Kara-Barents Sea, and is associated with the increase in turbulent heat fluxes from the marginal ice zone. In contrast to the marked warming over the Arctic Ocean in winter, substantial cooling appears over Siberia and eastern Asia, linked to the reduction of Arctic sea ice during the freezing season （September-March）. However, in summer, very little change is observed in surface air temperature over the Arctic because increased radiative heat melts the sea ice and the amount of turbulent heat gain from the ocean is relatively small. The heat stored in the upper ocean mixed layer in summer with the opening of the Arctic Ocean is released back to the atmosphere as turbulent heat fluxes during the autumn and through to the following spring. This warming of the Arctic and the reduced sea ice amplifies surface cooling over Siberia and eastern Asia in winter.