2008年黄海绿潮路径的数值模拟

利用FVCOM模式拉格朗日粒子跟踪模块模拟了2008年5月到7月黄海绿潮漂移路径,根据遥感图像选取粒子跟踪的初始位置和初始时刻,模式中加入M2,S2,K1,01四个主要分潮和Quickscat每日风场资料作为驱动,模拟的粒子运动的主要路径和到达青岛近岸的时间与遥感图像对比都比较吻合。该结论进一步验证了前人关于青岛绿潮来...     

Reconstruction and analysis of sub-plinian tephra dispersal during the 1530 A.D. Soufrière (Guadeloupe) eruption: Implications for scenario definition and hazards assessment

The last magmatic eruption of Soufrière of Guadeloupe dated at 1530 A.D. (Soufrière eruption) is characterized by an onset with a partial flank-collapse and emplacement of a debris-avalanche that was followed by a sub-plinian VEI 2–3 explosive short-lived eruption (Phase-1) with a column that reached a height between 9 and 12 km producing about 3.9 × 10⁶ m³ DRE (16.3 × 10⁶ m³ bulk) of juvenile products. The column recurrently collapsed generating scoriaceous pyroclastic flows in radiating valleys up to a distance of 5–6 km with a maximum interpolated bulk deposit volume of 11.7 × 10⁶ m³ (5 × 10⁶ m³ DRE). We have used HAZMAP, a numerical simple first-order model of tephra dispersal [Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837–845] to reconstruct to a first approximation the potential dispersal of tephra and associated tephra mass loadings generated by the sub-plinian Phase 1 of the 1530 A.D. eruption. We have tested our model on a deterministic average dry season wind profile that best-fits the available data as well as on a set of randomly selected wind profiles over a 5 year interval that allows the elaboration of probabilistic maps for the exceedance of specific tephra mass load thresholds. Results show that in the hypothesis of a future 1530 A.D. scenario, populated areas to a distance of 3–4 km west–southwest of the vent could be subjected to a static load pressure between 2 and 10 kPa in case of wet tephra, susceptible to cause variable degrees of roof damage. Our results provide volcanological input parameters for scenario and event-tree definition, for assessing volcanic risks and evaluating their impact in case of a future sub-plinian eruption which could affect up to 70 000 people in southern Basse-Terre island and the region. They also provide a framework to aid decision-making concerning land management and development. A sub-plinian eruption is the most likely magmatic scenario in case of a future eruption of this volcano which has shown, since 1992, increasing signs of low-energy seismic, thermal, and acid degassing unrest without significant deformation.     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震地表破裂参数相互关系的新认识

地震地表破裂带调查表明,昆仑山口西 8. 1级地震的破裂长度为 426km,最大水平位移6m左右,地震破裂位移的分布明显地受断层活动段控制。该次地震的破裂长度远大于统计值,文中应用地壳极限线应变的概念,通过比较中国大陆内部几次走滑型强震的地震破裂最大位移与破裂长度的关系,论述了昆仑山口西 8. 1级地震中各次级段破裂的相对独立特征,认为该次强震不是一次整体性破裂事件,而是由连续触发的几次地震组成     

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF INHERENT CAUSES FOR DEVIATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS

To have a clearer picture of mechanisms responsible for the deviation of tropical cyclone (to be simplified as TC hereafter) tracks, the current work assumes the TC as a circular vortex with a radius of R. A general motion equation of TC is then determined by averaging its horizontal motion equation over the sentire region of TC. In the meantime, with the moving track of TC assumed as a characteristic arc, the curvature equation is derived for the track of movement and patterns of its deviation due to TC structure and variation are discussed. The result shows that the scale, size, maximum wind speed and radius are factors causing the deviation of TC tracks. In addition, asymmetric structure of TC is also important for the deviation of tracks. The results, achieved with hypothesis, agree with facts in some cases but disagree with them in others, which are to be verified with more observations or numerical simulations.     

长江口邻域叶绿素a和初级生产力的分布

海水中的叶绿素a浓度是浮游植物现存量的重要指标,其分布反映出了水体中浮游植物的丰度及其变化规律.初级生产力反映了水域初级生产者通过光合作用生产有机碳的能力,是海洋生物链的第一个环节,是海洋生态系统研究的重要内容,也是海域生物资源评估的重要依据.河口及其邻近海域是人类活动较为频繁的海域,也是生物海洋学研究过程的重要区域.长江口是陆源物质输入东海的主要场所,径流把大量的悬浮泥沙和丰富的溶解营养盐带入海洋,造成了长江口邻近海域独特的生态环境特征,成为了诸多研究的焦点.     

黑河干流洪水预报模型研究

黑河干流上游区水文站点稀少,区间部分支流洪水过程无法控制,中游区河流沿程大量引水灌溉、取水口甚多用水量无法获得,使得以水量平衡原理为基础的洪水演算方法难以应用。针对上述情况,笔者应用系统水文模型理论并对其进行了改进。通过引入系统存贮变量,建立了一个新的黑河干流洪水预报模型-河道洪水演算模型。经1996年,1998年两次特大洪水试报检验,结果表明该模型的预报精度较高,对黑河干流防洪减灾、水利工程科学管理以及水资源优化配置具有重要的作用。     

1999—2003年西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报的误差分析

应用1999—2003年中国中央气象台 (CMO)、日本气象厅 (JMA) 以及美国联合台风警报中心 (JTWC) 发布的西北太平洋热带气旋综合预报资料, 从总误差、逐年误差趋势、不同海区误差、不同路径趋势误差、不同强度趋势误差等5个方面对各预报中心的路径及强度预报结果进行分析, 结果表明:5年总的平均误差以JTWC的路径预报误差最小, 而JMA的强度预报较准确; 在不同海域, 各预报中心的路径预报能力各有优势, 但在热带气旋的强度预报方面, JMA的方法在各海区都较稳定; 对不同路径趋势热带气旋的预报方面, 除了南海转向热带气旋的路径预报比JMA和CMO稍差一些之外, JTWC的路径预报在大多数情况下都是好于或相当于JMA和CMO; 在不同强度变化趋势热带气旋的预报方面, JTWC在大多数情况下都优于其他中心。上述结果帮助业务和科技人员全面了解各预报中心的预报能力优劣, 也为今后改进我国的热带气旋预报提供有益的参考。     

青海省河南M_S5.1和玛沁M_S5.0地震后库玛断裂带的地震活动趋势研究

根据地震活动特征、大武地震台尾波持续时间及长宁、湟源和西宁 3个台水氡异常变化 ,讨论了 1 999年河南MS5 .1和玛沁MS5 .0地震发生后库玛断裂带的地震活动趋势 .结果表明 ,河南—玛沁地区的中强地震活动与库玛断裂带上的强震活动有明显的对应关系 ;在库玛断裂带中东段存在一个由ML ≥ 3.0地震围成的空区 ;上述2次地震发生后大武地震台尾波持续时间异常依然存在 ,长宁、湟源和西宁台水氡趋势异常仍然持续 .据此认为库玛断裂带存在发生强震的背景     

浅析钻孔灌注桩后注浆技术在河流冲积地层高层建筑中的应用

介绍了钻孔灌注桩后注浆(桩端后注浆)在河流冲积地层高层建筑工程中的应用,并和钻孔灌注桩作了对比分析,通过现场单桩竖向抗压静载荷试验和现场低应变试验结果表明,钻孔灌注桩后注浆在此工程中是可行的,并具有较好的经济效益和社会效益。     

青藏高原多年冻土区碎石护坡降温作用及效果分析

基于青藏高原北麓河多年冻土区碎石护坡路基与普通路基温度监测资料分析,结果表明:碎石层的铺设具有减小坡面年平均温度及坡面温度年较差的作用;与普通路基相比,碎石护坡在暖季主要起到隔热作用,但在冷季主要存在不利于路基散热的弊病.从路基人为冻土上限抬升状况、温度降低程度和路基变形量的差异来看,碎石护坡路基较普通路基有利于冻土路基的热稳定性.但碎石护坡调节路基内部温度场是一个长期过程,即坡面温度对多年冻土温度的影响具有滞后性,若作为青藏铁路多年冻土区补强措施使用时应慎重.