A New Scheme for Predicting Leaf Onset in Summer-Green Vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere

A modified thermal time model(MTM) was developed to reproduce the leaf onset for summer-green vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. The model adopts the basic concept of a thermal time model(TM) in that leaf onset is primarily triggered by growing degree days(GDD). Based on global phenology data derived from satellite observations, a new parameterization for the critical model parameter Tb(i.e., baseline temperature for GDD calculation) has been introduced, and the spatial distribution of Tb was calculated. Simulations of leaf onset during 1982–2000 in the range 30–90°N showed a significant improvement of MTM over the standard TM model with constant Tb. The mean error and mean absolute error of the climatological simulation were 1.11 and 6.8 days, respectively, and 90% of the model error(5th and 95 th percentiles) was between-12.4 and 13.7 days.     

2011年4月17日广东强对流天气过程分析

利用地面和高空观测、卫星、雷达和闪电及自动站资料对2011年4月1 7日出现在广东省的强对流天气的背景和演变进行了分析和总结,本次强对流过程出现了短时强降水、雷雨大风和冰雹等强对流天气,具有风力强、中尺度强风暴系统明显、局地性强和灾情严重等特点。分析表明,地面锋面抬升是本次强对流天气发生的主要触发机制,珠三角地区的地形平坦、广东中层的干急流以及较大的垂直风切变可能是强风暴系统发展和维持的主要因素。最后,本文也分析了当时的主观预报思路并提出了一些思考和总结。     

西北区东部寒潮天气短期预报

分析了西北区东部寒潮短期预报的气候概况和环流特征，对不同类型寒潮个例进行归纳总结，组合成预报规则，建立了短期寒潮预报模式，输入计算机得出有无寒潮天气预报     

特殊天气城市复杂环境温度观测疑误数据的合理性分析

对温度观测资料进行质量控制时,僵值和突变是常见的疑误类型,针对城市复杂环境中僵值和突变疑误数据进行研究,对降低城市自动站温度资料质量控制的误检率有重要价值。文章针对城市复杂环境（以上海世博园为例）中18个自动气象站一年（2010年5月至2011年4月）逐时温度资料进行质量控制,着重探讨僵值及突变疑误数据的分布特征和可能原因。结果表明：（1）僵值疑误数据集中出现在冬季夜间,局地性强。阴天或多云天气,通风不佳的测站感热项较小,易出现僵值过程,最长持续11 h。（2）温度突变疑误数据可分“突升”和“突降”两类,“突升”集中出现在秋冬季,而“突降”集中在春夏季;“突升”集中出现在日出前后,而“突降”主要出现在午后至夜晚,“突升”局地性强而“突降”各站间趋同性较强。分析发现,城市复杂环境下,日照突然增加或减少以及午后短时强降水是导致温度突变疑误数据的主要原因。因此,这些“疑误”数据是城市复杂环境影响或特定天气条件导致的,为真实有效的观测资料。针对城市复杂环境下的温度观测资料开展质量控制时,需结合观测环境等元数据进一步甄别。     

汛期短历时强降水过程的闪电特征

对2011年3次短历时强降水天气过程的闪电特征分析结果表明:①3次短时强降水都以负闪为主,负闪占总闪电的比例都在92﹪以上;②小时闪电频数峰值超前降雨峰值1h或同相;③5min闪电频数超前雨量峰值5~60min;④负闪电密集区主要发生在40dBZ以上的回波区,偶尔发生的正闪一般在较弱回波处;闪电大部分发生在回波顶高大于5km以上的区域;多分布在速度不均匀场附近;闪电密集区与VIL大值区对应关系不太好;⑤不同云体,闪电特征不尽相同,闪电频数高峰有的发生在强回波阶段,有的并不是回波最强阶段,而是减弱阶段。强回波前沿出现闪电密集区或前方无回波处发生闪电,预示未来强回波移动的方向;有的云体发展、成熟阶段闪电分布密集,负闪电主要集中在强回波中心附近,云体减弱阶段闪电分散,集中在单体的不同部位。     

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.

     

南疆短时强降水概念模型及环境参数分析

利用南疆2010-2016年自动气象站及区域自动气象站逐小时降水量资料,NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料以及探空资料,分析不同强度的短时强降水的时空分布,得出南疆短时强降水事件的天气型有明显的季节性特点和区域性特征。总结了典型短时强降水过程的环境背景场特征,建立了短时强降水的三种概念模型:中亚低槽(涡)型、西伯利亚低槽(涡)型和西风短波型。通过7个探空站的温湿廓线形态、地面露点温度、T_(850)-T_(500)、T_(700)-T_(500)、对流有效位能(CAPE)、对流抑制能量(CIN)、抬升凝结高度、0～6 km垂直风切变等分析了南疆短时强降水的环境背景:短时强降水Ⅰ型(整层湿)、短时强降水Ⅱ型(上湿下干)和短时强降水Ⅲ型(上干下湿)发生前大气水汽含量充沛、存在一定的CAPE和较明显的垂直风切变以及0℃层高度偏低、暖云层厚度偏厚等特征,而合适的CIN,有利于对流不稳定能量的积聚和爆发,促进短时强降水的发生;短时强降水Ⅳ型(干绝热型)存在大气层结较干和较大的T_(850)-T_(500)、T_(700)-T_(500);Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型是南疆短时强降水的主要类型,常出现在南疆中部、西部地区的盛夏和夏末,多为西伯利亚低值系统(低涡、低槽)型和中亚低值系统(低涡、低槽)型影响。     

基于耦合线的高隔离度三频分支线耦合器

本文提出了一种应用于无线功率传输系统中的新型三频分支线耦合器.通过在传统分支线耦合器的基础上加载1/4波长短路耦合线来实现3个频段的通带.每个通带之间均保持高的隔离度,且通过改变加载耦合线的奇偶模阻抗值,耦合器通带的中心频率可以在较宽频带范围内调节.对一个工作在0.69/1.0/1.4 GHz的平面三频耦合器模型进行了设计与加工,测试结果与理论期望值吻合较好.     

黄山地区短时强降雨的地形增幅机制

应用黄山地区191个地面自动观测站资料,统计分析了201 5年发生在黄山地区短时强降雨时空分布。统计发现:发生短时强降雨过程次数在午后及傍晚(14和18时)时段中明显增多;黄山山脉及其附近是短时强降雨多发生的中心地带,发生短时强降雨次数分布与山脉形态一致、和地形高度相关,短时强降雨与地形关系密切。分别利用三个典型个例分析了山脉地形动力阻拦和热力对短时强降雨的增幅作用,结果表明:(1)山脉地形迎风坡处因地形抬升速度与地面辐合线相配合降雨增强,水汽收支方法诊断计算降雨增量可达6成;(2)锋面过境山脉时垂直扰动增强水平位温梯度增大锋生,在背风坡处地面涡度、上升运动增强,导致降水增幅;(3)山脉西南区域因地面感热通量差异形成热低压,在该区域增暖增湿,大气不稳定增强,受冷平流影响形成强对流天气,导致山区降水增幅。     

概略坐标对GPS PWV解算的影响

利用GAMIT 10.6和2016年第101天至第160天南昌站的GPS观测资料,开展了13组概略坐标变化对GPS PWV解算的影响研究试验(南昌站概略坐标设置以10 m等间距从0~120 m逐渐向西偏移真实坐标)。其结果发现:当概略坐标与实际坐标偏离在60 m以内时,概略坐标的变化对GPSPWV的解算影响不大(长基线的相对误差和均方根残差NRMS分别维持在5.7×10~(-9)和0.24附近);但当概略坐标与真实坐标偏离超过60 m后,概略坐标的变化对GPS PWV的解算有着显著的影响,其中基线相对误差和GPS PWV与探空PWV的标准偏差随概略坐标偏离的增加而快速增大,NRMS和GPS PWV与探空PWV的相关系数也有明显的增加和减小,GPSPWV的成功解算日数则随概略坐标偏离的增加而快速减小(当偏离≥120 m时南昌无GPS PWV生成);概略坐标变化对基线相对误差、GPS PWV精度以及GPS PWV能否被成功解算的影响仅限于本站,某站概略坐标的偏离不会对其他站GPS PWV解算造成明显的影响。