Peak runoff contributing area as hydrological signature of the probability distribution of floods

For the analysis of hydrological extremes and particularly in flood prediction, deeper investigation is needed on the relative effects of different hydrological processes acting at the basin scale in different hydroclimatic areas of the world. In this framework, the theoretical derivation of flood distribution shows a great potential for development and knowledge advancement. In addition, another promising path of investigation is represented by the use of distributed hydrological models via simulation modelling (including Monte Carlo, discrete event and continuous simulation). In this paper results of a theoretically derived flood frequency distribution are analyzed and compared with the results of a simulation scheme that uses a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP). The numerical simulation allows the reproduction of a large number of extreme events and provides insight into the main control for flood generation mechanisms with particular emphasis to the peak runoff contributing areas, highlighting the relevance of soil texture and morphology in different climatic environments. The proposed methodology is applied here to the Agri and the Bradano basin, in Southern Italy.     

Petrologic constraints on the decompression history of magma prior to Vulcanian explosions at the Soufrière Hills volcano,Montserrat

A series of 88 Vulcanian explosions occurred at the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, between August and October, 1997. Conduit conditions conducive to creating these and other Vulcanian explosions were explored via analysis of eruptive products and one-dimensional numerical modeling of magma ascent through a cylindrical conduit. The number densities and textures of plagioclase microlites were documented for twenty-three samples from the events. The natural samples all show very high number densities of microlites, and > 50% by number of microlites have areas < 20 μm². Pre-explosion conduit conditions and decompression history have been inferred from these data by comparison with experimental decompressions of similar groundmass compositions. Our comparisons suggest quench pressures < 30 MPa (origin depths < 2 km) and multiple rapid decompressions of > 13.75 MPa each during ascent from chamber to surface. Values are consistent with field studies of the same events and statistical analysis of explosion time-series data. The microlite volume number density trend with depth reveals an apparent transition from growth-dominated crystallization to nucleation-dominated crystallization at pressures of ∼ 7 MPa and lower. A concurrent sharp increase in bulk density marks the onset of significant open-system degassing, apparently due to a large increase in system permeability above ∼ 70% vesicularity. This open-system degassing results in a dense plug which eventually seals the conduit and forms conditions favorable to Vulcanian explosions. The corresponding inferred depth of overpressure at 250–700 m, near the base of the dense plug, is consistent with depth to center of pressure estimated from deformation measurements. Here we also illustrate that one-dimensional models representing ascent of a degassing, crystal-rich magma are broadly consistent with conduit profiles constructed via our petrologic analysis. The comparison between models and petrologic data suggests that the dense conduit plug forms as a result of high overpressure and open-system degassing through conduit walls.     

玄武岩内非均质性对地震资料的影响:印度德干圈闭的一个研究实例(英文)

油气勘探需要重新开发玄武岩下目的层的成像技术。我们今天遇到的最重要的问题之一是玄武岩下地震成像。近年来,由于利用长炮检距这个问题部分已经得到解决。然而,由于地表以及玄武岩的内部非均质性引起的复杂波形,近炮检距的资料仍然不能充分地被利用。影响玄武岩下成像的近垂直入射资料对于了解玄武岩层内部结构是十分有用的。对比较均匀的玄武岩目标层可选用转换波。这里我们利用几个合成模型例子重点描述了更接近现实的非均质玄武岩流引起的实际困难。模拟计算了全波地震记录以有助于了解玄武岩内沉积物对地震资料的影响。本文介绍了印度德干圈闭的一个研究实例。首先探讨了夹层沉积物对整个地震成像的影响。其次利用该区声测井资料以反射系数法计算全波场响应与实际地震资料对比, 通过一系列速度-深度剖面探讨了利用模式转换波(顶底玄武岩界面上的P波转化为S波或相反)对印度库奇地区玄武岩下成像的可行性。通过与野外资料相比较证明玄武岩中多个薄层的效应严重恶化我们所要解释和利用的图象的质量。     

用剩余信息量最小准则实现直流电测深数据的二维自动反演

自Pelton等发表第一篇直接电测深数据的二维反演文章以来，电测深数据的二维反演解释已广泛应用于资源勘探和环境监测，并取得一定效果。然而，由于该方法中加入了人为确定的平滑约束，其反演解释结果具有很大不确定性，使其在实际生产中普及应用受到限制。因此，如何在现有方法的基础上进一步改进完善成为该方法普及应用的关键。为了使反演解释结果既忠于实测数据，又合理地反映地下介质的变化，作者在本文中讨论了基于最大熵谱原理的剩余信息量最小准则实现电测深数据的二维自动反演。作者在文中还介绍了正演计算和偏导数求取中，提高精度和计算效率的技巧。用三个数值模式算例对本文的自动反演方法进行了验证。数值模拟结果表明，基于剩余信息量电小准则的二维自动反演给出的解释结果基本不受人为因素影响，能反映地下介质电阻率的详细变化。     

大气中一氧化碳浓度变化的模拟研究

应用全球二维大气化学模式,模拟了CO、CH4和OH自由基等成分自工业革命到2020年的长期变化.模拟的全球CO平均体积分数在1840年、1991年和2020年分别为27×10-6、76×10-6和105×10-6.从1840到1991年,OH自由基数浓度从7.17×105个分子/cm3下降到5.79×105个分子/cm3,降低了19%.模拟的CH4长期变化与冰芯资料相符.模拟的20世纪80年代CO体积分数年增长率为1.03%～1.06%.大气中CO在20世纪90年代前是增长的,而到90年代初观测到CO体积分数突然下降.应用二维大气化学模式对此原因进行了模拟研究,结果表明,CO排放源的减少是CO体积分数下降的主要因子,平流层臭氧减少是另一个重要因子.尽管CO排放源的减少对大气CH4增长率的变化有较大影响,而CH4排放源减少对CO体积分数变化却几乎没有影响.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF ATMOSPHERIC METHANE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 150 YEARS*

A global two-dimensional chemistry model is developed to study long-term trends of CH₄ since industrial revolution.The sources of CH₄,CO and NO_x are parameterized as functions of latitude and time.With two long-term emission scenarios,long-term trends of CH₄ are simulated.The results have a good agreement with observation from ice cores.The modeled CH₄ increased from 760 ppbv in 1840 to 1611.9 ppbv in 1991, while the modeled number concentration of tropospheric OH decreased from 7.17×10⁵ cm^-3 in 1840 to 5.79×10⁵ cm^-3 in 1991.The increase of atmospheric CH₄ can be explained by the increase of emission of CH₄ and build-up because of decrease of OH radicals that remove CH₄ from the atmosphere.The model is also used to simulate the distribution of CH₄.Comparisons between the model results and observations show that the model can simulate both latitudinal distribution and seasonal variation of CH₄ well.     

The value of a physically based model versus an empirical approach in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion for loess-derived soils

A data set on soil losses and controlling factors for 58 ephemeral gullies has been collected in the Belgian loess belt from March 1997 to March 1999. Of the observed ephemeral gullies, 32 developed at the end of winter or in early spring (winter gullies) and 26 ephemeral gullies developed during summer (summer gullies). The assessed data have been used to test the physically based Ephemeral Gully Erosion Model (EGEM) and to compare its performance with the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion.Analysis shows that EGEM is not capable of predicting ephemeral gully cross-sections well. Although conditions for input parameter assessment were ideal, some parameters such as channel erodibility, critical flow shear stress and local rainfall depth showed great uncertainty. Rather than revealing EGEM's inability of predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this analysis stresses the problematic nature of physically based models, since they often require input parameters that are not available or can hardly be obtained.With respect to the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this study shows that for winter gullies and summer gullies, respectively, over 80% and about 75% of the variation in ephemeral gully volume can be explained when ephemeral gully length is known. Moreover, when previously collected data for ephemeral gullies in two Mediterranean study areas and the data for summer gullies formed in the Belgian loess belt are pooled, it appears that one single length (L)–volume (V) relation exists (V=0.048 L^1.29; R²=0.91). These findings imply that predicting ephemeral gully length is a valuable alternative for the prediction of ephemeral gully volume. A simple procedure to predict ephemeral gully length based on topographical thresholds is presented here. Secondly, the empirical length–volume relation can also be used to convert ephemeral gully length data extracted from aerial photos into ephemeral gully volumes.