Reduced Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size to Sea Surface Temperature in a Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Environment

It has been challenging to project the tropical cyclone(TC) intensity,structure and destructive potential changes in a warming climate.Here,we compare the sensitivities of TC intensity,size and destructive potential to sea surface warming with and without a pre-storm atmospheric adjustment to an idealized state of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium(RCE).Without RCE,we find large responses of TC intensity,size and destructive potential to sea surface temperature(SST) changes,which is in line with some previous studies.However,in an environment under RCE,the TC size is almost insensitive to SST changes,and the sensitivity of intensity is also much reduced to 3%?C-1–4%?C-1.Without the pre-storm RCE adjustment,the mean destructive potential measured by the integrated power dissipation increases by about 25%?C-1 during the mature stage.However,in an environment under RCE,the sensitivity of destructive potential to sea surface warming does not change significantly.Further analyses show that the reduced response of TC intensity and size to sea surface warming under RCE can be explained by the reduced thermodynamic disequilibrium between the air boundary layer and the sea surface due to the RCE adjustment.When conducting regional-scale sea surface warming experiments for TC case studies,without any RCE adjustment the TC response is likely to be unrealistically exaggerated.The TC intensity–temperature sensitivity under RCE is very similar to those found in coupled climate model simulations.This suggests global mean intensity projections under climate change can be understood in terms of a thermodynamic response to temperature with only a minor contribution from any changes in large-scale dynamics.     

CLASSIFYING WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES BY PHYSICAL INDEX SYSTEM

The classification of tropical cyclones (TCs) is significant to obtain their temporal and spatial variation characteristics in the context of dramatic-changing global climate. A new TCs clustering method by using K-means clustering algorithm with nine physical indexes is proposed in the paper. Each TC is quantified into an 11-dimensional vector concerning trajectory attributes, time attributes and power attributes. Two recurving clusters (cluster A and E) and three straight-moving clusters (cluster B, C and D) are categorized from the TC best-track dataset of the western North Pacific (WNP) over the period of 1949-2013, and TCs’ properties have been analyzed and compared in different aspects. The calculation results of coefficient variation (CV) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) reveal a high level of intra-cluster cohesiveness and inter-cluster divergence, which means that the physical index system could serve as a feasible method of TCs classification. The clusters are then analyzed in terms of trajectory, lifespan, seasonality, trend, intensity and Power Dissipation Index (PDI). The five classified clusters show distinct features in TCs’ temporal and spatial development discipline. Moreover, each cluster has its individual motion pattern, variation trend, influence region and impact degree.     

Glacier mapping in the Cordillera Blanca,Peru, tropical Andes,using Sentinel‐2 and Landsat data

Sentinel‐2 images were used for mapping debris‐free glaciers for the first time in Cordillera Blanca. Landsat‐8 and Sentinel‐2 data were compared for glacier area estimation in 2016, obtaining comparable results. It was observed that normalized difference snow index method for glacier mapping using MSI data is less sensitive to cast shadows and steep terrain compared with Landsat data. Estimated total glacier areas in 1975, 1994, and 2016 were 726 ± 20.3 km², 576.9 ± 15.1 km² and 482.8 ± 7.4 km², respectively. Glacier area in 2016 using Landsat was slightly lower (475.7 ± 16.8 km²) compared to the area estimated using MSI data. Observed glacier shrinkage between 1975 and 2016 was 33.5 per cent, which is lower compared to observed glacier area loss in the eastern cordilleras of Peru. Glacier shrinkage was higher at northern and northeastern slopes (47.9 per cent and 48.1 per cent, respectively) compared to the south‐western slopes (11.1 per cent).     

Sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone size to microphysics schemes

The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone(TC) size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF). Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes–Ferrier(FER), WRF Single-Moment 5-class(WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment6-class(WSM6)–are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size(the inner-core size, especially). In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes(as in WSM6) may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.     

Impact of atmospheric and oceanic conditions on the frequency and genesis location of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in 2004 and 2010

This study examines the impact of atmospheric and oceanic conditions during May–August of 2004 and 2010 on the frequency and genesis location of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Using the WRF model, four numerical experiments were carried out based on different atmospheric conditions and SST forcing. The numerical experiments indicated that changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions greatly affect tropical cyclone activity, and the roles of atmospheric conditions are slightly greater than oceanic conditions. Specifically, the total number of tropical cyclones was found to be mostly affected by atmospheric conditions, while the distribution of tropical cyclone genesis locations was mainly related to oceanic conditions, especially the distribution of SST. In 2010, a warmer SST occurred west of 140°E, with a colder SST east of 140°E. On the one hand, the easterly flow was enhanced through the effect of the increase in the zonal SST gradient.The strengthened easterly flow led to an anomalous boundary layer divergence over the region to the east of 140°E, which suppressed the formation of tropical cyclones over this region. On the other hand, the colder SST over the region to the east of 140°E led to a colder low-level air temperature, which resulted in decreased CAPE and static instability energy. The decrease in thermodynamic energy restricted the generation of tropical cyclones over the same region.     

Asymmetric distribution of convection in tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean

Forecasts of the intensity and quantitative precipitation of tropical cyclones(TCs) are generally inaccurate, because the strength and structure of a TC show a complicated spatiotemporal pattern and are affected by various factors. Among these, asymmetric convection plays an important role. This study investigates the asymmetric distribution of convection in TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2005–2012, based on data obtained from the Feng Yun 2(FY2)geostationary satellite. The asymmetric distributions of the incidence, intensity and morphology of convections are analyzed.Results show that the PDFs of the convection occurrence curve to the azimuth are sinusoidal. The rear-left quadrant relative to TC motion shows the highest occurrence rate of convection, while the front-right quadrant has the lowest. In terms of intensity, weak convections are favored in the front-left of a TC at large distances, whereas strong convections are more likely to appear to the rear-right of a TC within a 300 km range. More than 70% of all MCSs examined here are elongated systems, and meso-β enlongated convective systems(MβECSs) are the most dominant type observed in the outer region of a TC. Smaller MCSs tend to be more concentrated near the center of a TC. While semi-circular MCSs [MβCCSs, MCCs(mesoscale convective complexes)] show a high incidence rate to the rear of a TC, elongated MCSs [MβECSs, PECSs(persistent elongated convective systems)] are more likely to appear in the rear-right quadrant of a TC within a range of 400 km.     

Heterozoan carbonates from the equatorial rocky reefs of the Galápagos Archipelago

Strongly influenced by seasonal and interannual (i.e. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation) upwelling, the equatorial setting of the Galápagos Archipelago is divided into well‐defined temperature, nutrient and calcium carbonate saturation (Ω_aragonite) regions. To understand the relationship between oceanographic properties and sediment grain associations, grain size, carbonate content and components from sea floor surface samples were analysed, representing the main geographical regions of the Galápagos Archipelago. The shallow‐water rocky reefs of the Galápagos Archipelago are characterized by mixed carbonate–siliciclastic slightly gravelly sands. Despite minor differences in carbonate content, major differences exist in the distribution and composition of key carbonate producing biota. Halimeda is absent and benthic foraminifera occur in extremely low abundance. The western side of the Galápagos Archipelago is strongly influenced by nutrient‐rich, low‐Ω_aragonite, subtropical water, which generates a heterozoan carbonate biofacies in a tropical realm resembling cold‐water counterparts (i.e. serpulid, echinoderm, gastropod, barnacle and bryozoan‐rich facies). The Central East region is composed of a transitional‐heterozoan biofacies. Biofacies observed in the northern region have an increased occurrence of tropical corals, albeit with a minor overall contribution to the carbonate components. Although the temperature gradient would allow for a broader distribution of photozoan biofacies, the increased nutrient concentration and related reduced light penetration from the upwelled waters favour heterozoan carbonate factories, mimicking cool‐water, deeper or higher latitude environments. The recent sedimentary record of the Galápagos Archipelago presents a range of tropical heterozoan carbonate communities, responding to more than simply latitude or temperature but a much more complex mixture of physical, evolutionary and geological processes.     

ENSO与影响福建省热带气旋数量和强度关系研究

利用1949~2013年的热带气旋最佳路径和Nino3.4指数资料,探讨了影响福建省的热带气旋数量和强度与ENSO之间的关系.结果表明,影响福建省的热带气旋数目在拉尼娜年要比厄尔尼诺年略偏多.但对于强台风和超强台风级别的热带气旋而言,反而是在厄尔尼诺年偏多,其频数是拉尼娜年的1.5倍.另外,热带气旋发生的高峰期,在拉尼娜年为7~9月,在厄尔尼诺年则为7~10月,即厄尔尼诺年中的高峰期相对较长;同时,在拉尼娜年中,强台风和超强台风的发生时间较厄尔尼诺年的6~9月要迟延1个月左右,为7~10月.     

Tropical cyclones,global climate change and the role of Quaternary studies

The number and types of late Quaternary records of tropical cyclones (TCs) and temperate storms have been increasing globally over the past 10 years. There are now numerous such records for the Atlantic Ocean (USA) and Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, South Pacific Ocean, and a fewer number from the northwest Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The most obvious characteristic of these records is that many reveal extended alternating periods of greater and lesser TC activity over the past 6000 years. The length of these phases of relative inactivity and greater activity depends on the chronological resolution of the record, with the coarser‐resolution ones displaying multi‐century to millennial‐scale episodes and the high‐resolution records displaying decadal to centennial‐scale oscillations. In several instances the likely causes of these alternating periods of TC behaviour have been attributed to different phases of climate when El Niños and La Niñas dominated or to longer‐term variations in sea surface temperatures and possibly solar forcing. The picture emerging from these records is that TC behaviour is not entirely stochastic over the long term and that any simulations of long‐term TC behaviour need to account for these climatic influences. Incorporation of these observations, and the many more needed, is important for understanding the future behaviour of TCs. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil pore characteristics of evergreen and deciduous forests of the tropical monsoon region in Cambodia

Both evergreen and deciduous forests (Efs and Dfs) are widely distributed under similar climatic conditions in tropical monsoon regions. To clarify the hydraulic properties of the soil matrix in different forest types and their effects on soil water storage capacity, the soil pore characteristics (SPC) were investigated in Ef and Df stands in three provinces in Cambodia. Soils in the Ef group were characterized in common by large amounts of coarse pores with moderate pore size distribution and the absence of an extremely low K_s at shallow depths, compared to Df group soils. The mean available water capacity of the soil matrix (AWC_sm) for all horizons of the Ef and Df group soils was 0·107 and 0·146 m³ m^?3, respectively. The mean coarse pore volume of the soil matrix (CPV_sm) in the Ef and Df groups was 0·231 and 0·115 m³ m^?3, respectively. A water flow simulation using a lognormal distribution model for rain events in the early dry season indicated that variation in SPC resulted in a larger increase in available soil water in Ef soils than in Df soils. Further study on deeper soil layers in Ef and each soil type in Df is necessary for the deeper understanding of the environmental conditions and the hydrological modelling of each forest ecosystem. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.