12号热带风暴“北冕“造成江西暴雨的成因分析

对2002年12号热带风暴的北上路径及造成江西暴雨的成因进行了分析,发现北上路径与副高演变密切相关,江西境内暴雨与热带低压切变、弱冷空气、高层辐散等密切相关.     

ON THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL AND INFLUENCE ON SOUTHERN CHINA USING MONTHLY OLR ANOMALIES FOR PRIME SUMMER

With the OLR data,the landfall and activity of tropical cyclones(TC) in southern China over a 20-year period(1975～1994) are studied.The result shows that the variation of the monthly anomalous OLR is somewhat teleconnected with the TC activity in southern China.The former is used to predict short-term climate for the latter over months with frequent or no TC influence.To some externt,the relationship between the TC activity in southern China and the monthly mean OLR anomalies is dependent on the climatological location of the subtropical high in northwestern Pacific region.     

THE DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE ANOMALOUS ENSO DEVELOPMENTS IN 1990S

By using the wavelet transform method,the ENSO(2—7 a)signal and the decadal variability(8—20 a)are filtered out from the long-term SST data sets in order to investigate characteristicsof the decadal variability and its impact on the ENSO.It is found that there are two different kindsof decadal SSTA modes-horseshoe and horse saddle patterns in the tropical Pacific.Thehorseshoe pattern represents that the decadal SSTA variability in the central Pacific is in phasewith that in the eastern Pacific.The horse saddle pattern is named that they are out of phase.Theformer constituted the decadal variability before 1990s and the latter mainly prevailed during1990s.As the response of atmosphere to the ocean,two decadal wind patterns appear inassociation with the SST decadal modes.One is characterized by anomalous development of thezonal wind,the other by anomalous development of the meridional wind.These two kinds ofmodes can also be regarded as different phases of the decadal oscillation.Further studies haveshown that the influences of the two kinds of modes on the ENSO are different.The horse saddlemode has a stronger impact on the ENSO than the horseshoe mode.A possible mechanism for the influence of the decadal variability on the ENSO signal ispresented.The central part of the thermocline along the equatorial Pacific moves up or downsimultaneously with its eastern part while the decadal variability bears the horseshoe pattern.Butthe two segments of the thermocline in the central and eastern Pacific act oppositely while thedecadal variability shows the horse saddle pattern.In this case it has an-influence on the individualENSO'events by the superposition of the decadal variability.     

THE DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE ANOMALOUS ENSO DEVELOPMENTS IN 1990S*

By using the wavelet transform method,the ENSO (2-7 a) signal and the decadal variability (8-20 a) are filtered out from the long-term SST data sets in order to investigate characteristics of the decadal variability and its impact on the ENSO.It is found that there are two different kinds of decadal SSTA modes-horseshoe and horse saddle patterns in the tropical Pacific.The horseshoe pattern represents that the decadal SSTA variability in the central Pacific is in phase with that in the eastern Pacific.The horse saddle pattern is named that they are out of phase.The former constituted the decadal variability before 1990s and the latter mainly prevailed during 1990s.As the response of atmosphere to the ocean,two decadal wind patterns appear in association with the SST decadal modes.One is characterized by anomalous development of the zonal wind,the other by anomalous development of the meridional wind.These two kinds of modes can also be regarded as different phases of the decadal oscillation.Further studies have shown that the influences of the two kinds of modes on the ENSO are different.The horse saddle mode has a stronger impact on the ENSO than the horseshoe mode.A possible mechanism for the influence of the decadal variability on the ENSO signal is presented.The central part of the thermocline along the equatorial Pacific moves up or down simultaneously with its eastern part while the decadal variability bears the horseshoe pattern.But the two segments of the thermocline in the central and eastern Pacific act oppositely while the decadal variability shows the horse saddle pattern.In this case it has an-influence on the individual ENSO'events by the superposition of the decadal variability.     

A DIAGNOSIS OF THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SURFACE WIND FIELD IN THE TROPICAL OCEANS AND ITS CORRELATIVE CHARACTERS WITH ENSO CYCLE*

Utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly datasets,and based on the filter and standard deviation calculation,the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and 1000 hPa wind field for the tropical Pacific,Indian and Atlantic Oceans is investigated for the past 20 years (1979-1998).The characters of space-time evolution in SST anomalies (SSTA) for each ocean and corresponding wind anomaly field are acquired by using rotated principal component (RPC) and linear regression analysis methods.Using the method of correlation analysis.the characters of three tropical oceans correlated with ENSO are investigated.The contemporary correlation between the SSTA in the Indian Ocean and in the equatorial eastern Pacific is positive,and there is a weak negative correlation between the SSTA in the equatorial east Atlantic Ocean and in the equatorial eastern Pacific.The lead-lag correlation analysis indicates that the SSTA in the equatorial Indian Ocean lags the dominant Pacific ENSO mode by 3 months,and the SSTA in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean leads ENSO mode by 6 months.The ENSO-correlated components in tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Atlantic Ocean display much the same amount of total variance in each ocean,i.e..14% in the Indian Ocean and 12% in the Atlantic Ocean and the maximums are all above 40%.     

DYNAMICAL STUDY OF DIABATIC HEATING INFLUENCE ON RADIAL INHOMOGENEOUS STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE*

Based on the tropical cyclone (TC) asymmetric disturbance as the superposition of the symmetric environmental circulation,the analytical solution of travelling wave is given by using the barotropical nondivergent model with diabatic heating forcing and non-friction in a plane polar coordinate.Then,the TC radial inhomogeneous structure is analyzed on radial/tangential velocity and geopotential height.It is found that the different kinds of structures are influenced by the Coriolis parameter (f),TC intensity (Ω),disturbance circular frequency (ω),and TC angular wavenumber (m).And,the diabatic heating (Q₁) has significant impacts on the radial/tangential velocity distribution shaped like the inner-tight and outer-relaxed.     

中国热带红树林的发展及其地理背景

参照约３０个红树林孢粉分析实例，探讨中国南方晚第三纪以来红树林的发展。红树林开始出现于晚始新世；晚第三纪其分布比今偏北；第四纪冰期使红树林向南退缩至雷州半岛北部。末次间冰期４２ ０００～２５ ０００ ａ ＢＰ红树林扩展，以海桑属为代表的典型红树林的北界从现今的 １９°３０′扩展到２３°４０′Ｎ。末次冰期红树林衰落。早全新世９ ６００～７ ９００ ａ ＢＰ红树林复兴，中全新世达到繁盛，向北分布到闽江口（２６°Ｎ），与现今的北界一致，但是中全新世以来海桑属在１９°３０′Ｎ以北不再出现，奠定了现今红树林地带性分布的格局。     

黄渤海登陆热带气旋活动的统计分析

利用中国气象局整编的1949-2000年的热带气旋资料,分析了52年间在黄渤海沿岸登陆的热带气旋的年际和季节分布、强度、移向和移速、源地及变性等气候特征,揭示了此类气旋大部分强度较强并易发生陆上变性,变性后增强的气旋的雏持时间较长等事实,并发现了其变性的高频地区位于黄海北部至中朝边境。     

广州市37℃以上酷热天气形势及相关要素分析

对1951年以来广州市出现的37℃以上的酷热天气的形势特征和广州气象要素进行分析,发现这类天气多发生在地面气压场西北高东南低的形势之下,与副热带高压和热带气旋活动关系密切,二者的共同作用使广州附近多数情况下出现下沉气流。结果还表明,广州地面和低空吹偏北气流更易出现酷热天气,酷热天气还与前期的气温和降水等要素关系密切。     

影响海南的热带气旋气候特征及其与ENSO的关系

利用1949～2003年资料,统计了影响和登陆海南热带气旋频数的时空分布特征、初、终期分布,并探讨了ENSO事件对海南省热带气旋的影响和2004年无热带气旋影响海南的原因.指出ENSO事件与海南省热带气旋活动具有显著的相关性,暖事件年有利于影响和登陆热带气旋偏少、初旋偏晚,冷事件年则相反.但ENSO事件与终旋日期相关不显著.