温室气体浓度增加情景下西北太平洋热带气旋变化的模拟分析

利用德国Max-Planck气象研究所参与政府间气候变化委员会(The Intergovernmental Panelon Cli-mate Change,IPCC)第四次评估报告的气候系统模式(ECHAM5/MPI-OM)的数值模拟结果,分析研究了全球增暖背景下西北太平洋热带气旋的变化。结果表明,ECHAM5模式较好的模拟出了热带气旋的基本结构和频数的分布特征。当大气中CO2浓度增加时,热带气旋中心的最低气压升高,850hPa正涡度降低,风速减小,风场出现反气旋性环流异常,暖心强度减弱,气旋的低层径向流入和高层径向流出减少,气旋总体强度减弱。CO2浓度的增加会总体上减少西北太平洋热带气旋的生成频数,从模拟结果看年均减少10个左右。就CO2浓度增加对热带气旋频数季节变化的影响而言,CO2浓度增加所引起气旋频数减少较平均的分配到多个月份里,表明CO2浓度增加引起的大气环流异常在全年都会对西北太平洋热带气旋的发生频数产生影响。分析加拿大参加IPCC第四次评估报告的CGCM3.1(T47)模拟资料,其结果与ECHAM5资料得到的结果大致相似。     

应用泊松耿贝尔分布估算海上极端风速

采用泊松耿贝尔分布，基于中国气象局发布的《CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集》资料来估算海上极端风速，并以上川岛气象站多年实测资料通过概率评估来加以验证。结果表明，采用泊松耿贝尔分布可以得到较为保守的海上极值风速取值。对于海上的小面积区域的重现期风速估算，采用50 km半径区域进行评估，可以得到较为合理的估算结果，当评估区域较大时，则需考虑适当扩大评估半径。     

A Trophic Flow Model of the Caeté Mangrove Estuary (North Brazil) with Considerations for the Sustainable Use of its Resources

The Caeté Estuary lies within the world's second largest mangrove region, 200 km south-east of the Amazon delta. It has an extension of about 220 km²and is subjected to a considerable human impact through intensive harvest of mangrove crabs (Ucides cordatus) and logging of mangroves. In order to integrate available information on biomass, catches, food spectrum and dynamics of the main species populations of the system, a trophic steady state model of 19 compartments was constructed using the ECOPATH II software (Christensen & Pauly, 1992). Ninety-nine percent of total system biomass is made up by mangroves (Rhizophora mangle, Avicennia germinans andLaguncularia racemosa ), which are assumed to cover about 45% of the total area and contribute about 60% to the system's primary production. The remaining biomass (132 g m⁻²) is distributed between the pelagic and benthic domains in proportions of 10% and 90% respectively. Through litter fall, mangroves inject the main primary food source into the system, which is either consumed directly by herbivores (principally land crabs, Ucides cordatus) or, when already metabolized by bacteria, by detritivors (principally fiddler crabs, Uca spp.). These two groups are prominent in terms of biomass (80 g and 14·5 g m⁻²), and food intake (1120 g m⁻² yr⁻¹and 1378 g m⁻² yr⁻¹respectively). According to the model estimates, energy flow through the fish and shrimp compartments is of relatively low importance for the energy cycling within the system, a finding which is contrary to the situation in other mangrove estuaries reported in the literature. The dominance of mangrove epibenthos is attributed to the fact that a large part of the system's production remains within the mangrove forest as material export to the estuary is restricted to spring tides, when the forest is completely indundated. This is also the reason for the low abundance of suspension feeders, which are restricted to a small belt along the Caeté River and the small creeks which are watered daily. Phytoplankton, temporarily refloating benthic diatoms, neritic zooplankton and small pelagic fish dominate the (low) pelagic biomass. Total system throughput (10 559 g m⁻² yr⁻¹) and mean transfer efficiency between trophic levels (9·8%) calculated by the model fit well into the range reported for other tropical coastal ecosystems. The very high gross efficiency of the fishery (catch/net primary production) of 8·6% and its low trophic level (2·1) is explained by a high harvesting rate of mangroves and the fact that the main animal resource in the system are the mangrove crabs (Ucides cordatus), which feed at the first trophic level. The model was balanced asuming a turnover rate for the land crabs of P/B=0·25 (P/B: production per unit of biomass) which is possibly too high. If this value was replaced by a (possibly more realistic) lower value, the model would not balance, suggesting a situation in which more biomass is being harvested than produced, which hints to an overexploitation of this resource A ranking of the various system components in terms of their contribution to the system function (ascendency sensu Ulanowicz, 1997) revealed that detritus and associated bacteria contribute 34%, mangroves 19%, fiddler crabs 13%, phytoplankton and microphytobenthos 10%, mangrove crabs 10%, and the remaining 14 groups 14% to the total ascendency. Summary statistics of the model are given and compared with those of other coastal ecosystems.     

THE DYNAMICAL BASIS OF GEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT MOTIONS IN TROPICS*

Some dynamic constrains in the process of the tropical baroclinic geostrophic adjustment are discussed.The dispersion equation of three-dimensional inertia-gravitational wave and the equation of temporal conservation of potential vorticity are given,without considering the gradient of planetary potential vorticity.It indicates that the motions will be horizontal,meaning that Taylor-Proudman theorem is still right for tropics.At the same time,the semi-geostrophic balance is easier to appear in the tropical belt.Therefore the motions are generally horizontal and non-divergent,but still are stratified after the geostrophic balance establishes.     

登陆热带气旋引发的龙卷过程之个例分析

将卫星云图与物理量场相结合，对9909号热带风暴（WENDY）登陆北上并与西风带系统相互作用，引发上海东南部地区龙卷天气的过程进行分析研究，发现中低纬度系统的相互作用使WENDY倒槽得以维持和发展，并对WENDY残存低压长时间存在并北上起重要作用，当WENDY低压北上与西风带系统相接、叠加时，高层辐散、低层辐合的良好环境使WENDY环流内的对流云团进一步加强发展，中尺度干涌的涌入促使强对流云团群合并发展，并加剧对流辐合体内水平风切变，最终导致龙卷产生。     

Delineation of boundary between tropical/subtropical in the middle section for eco-geographic system of South China

This paper discusses division on tropical/subtropical boundary of middle section in South China. This discussion results in new understanding on eco-geographic regions and their boundaries, especially on gradual changes of natural conditions between eco-geographic regions. It analyzes results of the same area by other researchers, clarifies differences and causes of the differences for the results. Boundaries of eco-geographic regions cannot be drawn as a line as changes from tropical to subtropical are gradual. Therefore, for an eco-geographic region like tropical zone, definite boundaries must be mapped while gradual changes are considered. Temperature, vegetation and soil are the indexes to divide tropical and subtropical. After indexes of tropical zone are confirmed, data of annual average index reflect general state of the tropical zone. Line from such data is called “tropical boundary”. On the other hand, affected by the monsoon climate, some years are hotter and some are cooler. In hotter years, temperature of north area of tropical boundary reaches tropical state whereas in cooler years, such area moves southward. Boundary of the hottest year is called annual tropical line and that of the coolest year true tropical line. Temperatures in areas south to annual tropical line can probably reach tropical in some years. Temperatures in areas south to real tropical line reach tropical every year. The area from true tropical to annual tropical is called tropical fluctuating zone. Therefore, new concepts of tropical, annual tropical, true tropical and tropical fluctuating zone are formed to understand tropical area from a new point of view in the paper. Based on the indexes of climate, vegetation and soil, boundaries of tropical, annual tropical, true tropical and tropical fluctuating zone of the study area are established. The tropical fluctuating zone explains different locating of different researchers. The paper also puts forward a new method to display boundary for eco-geographic regions.     

NUMERICAL STUDY OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE ON LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATION

Orographic effects on monthly-and seasonal-scale low frequency oscillation are investiged in terms of a five-level global spectral model with a triangle truncation at wavenumber 10 that contains relatively full physical parameterization, followed by analysis and comparison of the lowpass filtered data separately obtained from models with and without orography. Results show that remarkable seasonal characteristics are displayed in the orographic forcing-generated low frequency wavetrain on monthly and seasonal scales. It is found that the Northern Hemisphere summer orography-produced tropical heating acts as source of the low-frequency wavetrain for both hemispheres. Besides, the simulations indicate that the orographic wavetrain perturbation can give rise to the anomaly in the equatorial zonal flow, whose transient forcing will cause a new wavetrain in the Southern Hemisphere, thus completing the cross-equatorial propagation of the northern wave in interhemispheric action.     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON NONLINEAR INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SEA*

Given time-independent monthly mean sea temperature,numerical simulation was done of the path of the tropicalcy clone Forrest and its related physical quantity field in terms of the improved version of the σ-coordinate 10-level primitive equation model for tropical cyclones developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Marine Meteorology.Result ssuggest the similarity between the simulated and observed physical quantity fields except that the simulated path was to the right of the observed,with the deviation increasing with time.Sea and tropical cyclone,in effect,interact mutually.In an attempt to compare the results from coupling and uncoupling experiments,an oceanic mixed layer model was formulated based on experiments with sea response to cyclone and integrated in synchronous coupling with the aforementioned version of tropical cyclones,the computational domain covering the western North Pacific with the coastal configuration involved.The coupling experiment shows that the negative feedback of the interaction between sea and mature cyclone leads to weaker sea response as compared to the uncoupling case.Except for the location of the divergence core of oceanic current,the mixed layer depth and inhomogeneous distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) caused by the cyclone-core position and intensity,the values of the maximum oceanic current,departure of the mixed layer depth and SST drop were smaller in the coupling than in the uncoupling case,and so was the maximum wind near the cyclone core.The path from the coupling run is to the left of the course in the uncoupling experiment but closer to the observed one though remaining somewhat leftward.Even on a scale of less than 3 days,the effects of sea and sea-cyclone interaction on the cyclone were by no means negli-gible.     

热带气旋预报方法业务预试验的效果分析

通过对参加１９９４年夏季热带气旋预报方法业务预试验的８个方法进行实例分析，初步指出各方法的成功之处与不足，以期得到改进和提高。     

沙漠蝗群对印巴边境植被的影响及其未来可能发展趋势

2020年初非洲东北和印巴边境沙漠蝗群席卷多个国家,大面积农田及自然植被被啃食,是什么气候条件促成了此次沙漠蝗灾?距离中国最近的印巴边境蝗群成为研究以及社会关注的热点,蝗灾对当地植被的影响如何?其发展趋势如何?从气候学上分析,蝗灾历史上是否曾经或者未来是否向印度东边迁飞而进入中国呢?本研究利用长时间序列的卫星遥感数据和气象气候观测数据,对沙漠蝗群可能扩展趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)由于沙漠蝗群的啃食,2020年1月和2月,在蝗群分布区大面积植被区的归一化植被指数较常年大幅度下降,2月(2月3日数据)的啃食面积较1月明显扩大;(2)发生在2018年5月和10月两次印度洋飓风和2019年12月强热带风暴等几个罕见气旋给非洲和阿拉伯半岛带来的强降水,是本次非洲-西亚蝗灾的形成重要原因;(3)从影响沙漠蝗群起飞的气温和沙漠蝗虫适合的降水条件来看,历史上或未来沙漠蝗群迁徙到印度东边的机会很少,进入中国的可能性非常小。