再论广西桂西、桂西北高峰丛热带岩溶发育历史

本文借助桂西、桂西北岩溶高峰丛洼地区内一些不同时代堆积物,对该区热带岩溶发育历史作了一些研究,其结论基本与笔者以前的推论相一致.即桂西、桂西北高峰丛洼地热带岩溶可能由侏罗纪就开始,早白垩纪基本奠定了本区岩溶地貌雏形,以后的岩溶发育是在此地貌雏形基础上的继承发育,一直至今.从中、上新世以来由于两个地壳活动期,使该区更为强烈上升,岩溶垂向发育得到了加强,形成了现在广西最年轻的高峰丛洼地地区.     

地形和边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋路径和强度影响的研究

采用准地转的正压模式, 研究了无非绝热加热时地形和边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋路径和强度的影响.结果表明: 地形作用对登陆热带气旋西北移动路径的影响比较明显, 而对登陆热带气旋强度的影响不明显; 边界层摩擦可以通过改变热带气旋X方向上和Y方向上的移动速度以及改变热带气旋水平环流结构对登陆热带气旋西北移动路径产生一定的影响, 边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋强度的影响非常明显, 其中摩擦是造成登陆热带气旋强度迅速减弱的一个重要因素.     

ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON DIFFERENT REGIONS OF CHINESE MAINLAND

The locations(longitudes and latitudes)of the tropical cyclones(TCs)making landfall on the Chinese mainland from 1949 to 2008 are investigated in detail by using ArcGis and FORTRAN routine.The southeast coastline[110 to 122°E)with most landfall TCs was selected as the key region,which was divided into 12 subsections with 1°intervals of longitude.The study period was from July to September in each year.The result showed that the average sustaining time of TCs making landfall on the subsections east of 118°E is longer than those west of 118°E.Before landfall,the averaged TC intensity in the subsections east of118°E is stronger than that west of it.After landfall,however,the difference between the west and east is not significant.The index of destructive potential for the period before/after landfall was defined as TDP1/TDP2.The maximum of TDP1/TDP2 occurred in the subsection of[119,120°E)/[110,111°E).The ENSO impact on the frequency and average location of landfall TC over the whole region at 110 to 122°E is not obvious,but the effect varies with specific subsections.There is little differences of averaged TDP1 in the subsections between different phases of ENSO events,but the averaged TDP2 is larger in the warm events than that in the cold events.The rainstorm days of each station caused by TCs in different subsections were counted respectively.The results suggested that the rainstorm days of the subsections east of 118°E are much more than those west of 118°E.The larger values are primarily distributed at the subsections of[119,120°E)and[110,111°E).     

西双版纳地区公路两侧土地利用变化格局特征

根据西双版纳地区1976、1988和2003年三期LandsatMSS/TM/ETM影像解译的土地利用数据,运用Arc-G IS软件的缓冲区分析方法,分析该区内主干公路两侧土地利用变化的时空格局。结果如下:27 a间,与整个西双版纳州相比,主干公路两侧的土地利用强度更大、增长速度更快。公路两侧的土地利用转化主要表现为由林地向橡胶园和茶园转变,林地锐减,橡胶园迅速增加,林地是橡胶园的最主要来源。主要地类的面积在一定范围表现出与距公路距离的相关关系,距公路越近,林地面积百分比越小,橡胶园、建筑用地和水田面积百分比越大。土地利用变化也表现出明显的公路效应,距离公路越近,林地减少的速度、橡胶园增加的速度越快;随着距离的增加,林地向橡胶园的转化面积逐渐减小。土地利用变化的公路效应深度表现出不断扩展的趋势:1976年为公路两侧5 km,1988年为7 km,2003年达11 km。     

Environmental Influences on the Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are examined during different stages of the lifecycle of western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs), with the intention to understand how the environment affects the intensity change of TCs in this area. It is found that the intensification usually occurs when the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) is higher than 26℃. TCs usually experience a rapid intensification when the SST is higher than 27.5℃ while lower than 29.5℃. However, TCs decay or only maintain its intensity when the SST is lower than 26℃. The intensifying TCs usually experience a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear (2-10 ms-1 ). The larger the vertical wind shear, the slower the TCs strengthen. In addition, the convective available potential energy (CAPE) is much smaller in the developing stage than in the formation stage of TCs. For the rapidly intensifying TCs, the changes of SST, CAPE, and vertical wind shear are usually small, indicating that the rapid intensification of TCs occurs when the evolution of the environment is relatively slow.     

有关全球变暖对热带大气季节内振荡特征的影响及其数值模拟的研究

首先用资料诊断分析了全球变暖前后,热带大气低频振荡特征变化。研究发现,全球变暖前后,热带低频振荡的强度、分布、传播及周期等发生了一系列变化:ISO活跃区及强度范围均有不同程度的增大,气候变暖有缩小ISO强度季节差异趋势;气候变暖后,纬向东传波的大气季节内振荡能量增加,而西传波的能量相对减少;偏暖阶段,ISO振荡主周期相对分散,特别是较长周期的小波能量明显增大。然后利用动力学分析及数值模拟进一步探讨了热带低频振荡与海温的联系,对热带ISO的数值模拟进一步发现,大气模式与海洋模式耦合时,所模拟的热带季节内振荡较强;热带低频振荡的变化可能与全球变暖后海温场发生的变化有关。     

Résultats préliminaires sur la sédimentation pélagique de l'Atlantique tropical au Crétacé et au Tertiaire (plateau de Demerara,Leg ODP 207)

Five sites located on a bathymetric transect of the distal Demerara Rise were studied by ODP Leg 207. Albian sediments of essentially terrigenous nature (clay, siltstone, sandstone) are the oldest drilled stratigraphic levels and form apparently the top of the synrift sequence. They are overlain by Cenomanian to Santonian finely laminated black shales, rich in organic matter of marine origin, which accumulated on a thermally subsiding ramp. Early Campanian hiatuses are thought to be the result of final disjunction of Demerara Rise (South America) from Africa and the onset of deep water communication between the two Atlantic basins (south and central). The overlying Uppermost Cretaceous–Oligocene chalk includes rich and diversified calcareous plankton assemblages, as well as two radiolarian-rich intervals (Late Campanian and Middle Eocene). A complex erosional surface developed during the Late Oligocene–Early Miocene. Sedimentation was impeded since then on the intermediate and deep sites of Demerara Rise, possibly due to the action of deep submarine currents. To cite this article: T. Danelian et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific(WNP) are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m(MWS_(10)) from an ensemble of15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS_(10) are similar in the WNP and South China Sea(SCS); however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS(1.93 h) is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP(2.83 h). The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations,and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit(2008). The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.     

1957-2004年影响我国的强热带气旋频数和强度变化

以中国气象局西北太平洋热带气旋资料为基础,分析1957-2004年影响我国并达到台风强度以上的三类热带气旋,即生成热带气旋、影响热带气旋和登陆热带气旋的频数和强度的变化。结果表明：强热带气旋频数在1957-2004年间呈显著减少趋势,强度越强,其减少趋势越明显。近50 a台风以上强度的强热带气旋频次占总频次的比例没有明显的增加或减少趋势,强台风和超强台风比例呈减少趋势。1957-2004年热带气旋的最大强度呈线性减弱趋势,生成热带气旋和影响热带气旋的平均强度亦呈减弱趋势,登陆台风的平均强度也呈减弱趋势。     

Tropical cyclones and floods in Fiji

Abstract

Daily flow records, rainfall data and tropical cyclone maps during 1970–1998 are used to document the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on floods in the Rewa River system, Viti Levu, Fiji. Floods are large, brief, isolated events caused by TCs and non-TC tropical rainstorms. More floods are caused by tropical rainstorms than by TCs, but TC floods are larger. The log Pearson Type III distribution consistently provided the best fit to partial duration flood series and the widely-recommended generalized Pareto distribution performed very poorly, underscoring the need to test a variety of distributions for a particular geographic location. Tropical cyclones occur more often in Fiji during negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and all TCs that occurred during El Niño conditions caused floods. Peak flood discharges caused by TCs are inversely correlated with the SOI, reflecting possible links with tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation intensity.