西北太平洋热带气旋活动异常与广西严重夏秋连旱关系分析

通过对 2 0世纪 90年代发生的 4次严重夏秋连旱与西北太平洋热带气旋活动异常的关系的分析 ,表明西北太平洋热带气旋活动异常将导致环流的局部运行异常 ,这种异常天气事件的持续或多次重复出现可造成广西地区严重夏、秋连旱     

An Assessment of HOx Chemistry in the Tropical Pacific Boundary Layer: Comparison of Model Simulations with Observations Recorded during PEM Tropics A

Reported are the results from a comparison of OH,H₂O₂CH₃OOH, and O₃ observationswithmodel predictions based on current HO_x–CH₄reaction mechanisms. The field observations are thoserecorded during the NASA GTE field program, PEM-Tropics A. The major focus ofthis paper is on thosedata generated on the NASA P-3B aircraft during a mission flown in the marineboundary layer (MBL) nearChristmas Island, a site located in the central equatorial Pacific (i.e.,2° N, 157° W). Taking advantage of thestability of the southeastern trade-winds, an air parcel was sampled in aLagrangian mode over a significantfraction of a solar day. Analyses of these data revealed excellent agreementbetween model simulated andobserved OH. In addition, the model simulations reproduced the major featuresin the observed diurnalprofiles of H₂O₂ and CH₃OOH. In the case ofO₃, the model captured the key observational feature whichinvolved an early morning maximum. An examination of the MBL HO_xbudget indicated that the O(¹D) + H₂Oreaction is the major source of HO_x while the major sinks involveboth physical and chemical processes involving the peroxide species,H₂O₂ and CH₃OOH. Overall, the generally goodagreement between modeland observations suggests that our current understanding ofHO_x–CH₄ chemistry in the tropical MBL isquite good; however, there remains a need to critically examine this chemistrywhen both CH₂O and HO₂are added to the species measured.     

Isoprene and Its Oxidation Products Methyl Vinyl Ketone, Methacrolein, and Isoprene Related Peroxides Measured Online over the Tropical Rain Forest of Surinam in March 1998

Airborne measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOC) were performed overthe tropical rainforest in Surinam (0–12 km altitude,2°–7° N, 54°–58° W) using the proton transferreaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS) technique, which allows online monitoringof compounds like isoprene, its oxidation products methyl vinyl ketone,methacrolein, tentatively identified hydroxy-isoprene-hydroperoxides, andseveral other organic compounds. Isoprene volume mixing ratios (VMR) variedfrom below the detection limit at the highest altitudes to about 7 nmol/molin the planetary boundary layer shortly before sunset. Correlations betweenisoprene and its product compounds were made for different times of day andaltitudes, with the isoprene-hydroperoxides showing the highest correlation.Model calculated mixing ratios of the isoprene oxidation products using adetailed hydrocarbon oxidation mechanism, as well as the intercomparisonmeasurement with air samples collected during the flights in canisters andlater analysed with a GC-FID, showed good agreement with the PTR-MSmeasurements, in particular at the higher mixing ratios.Low OH concentrations in the range of 1–3 × 10⁵molecules cm^-3 averaged over 24 hours were calculated due to lossof OH and HO₂ in the isoprene oxidation chain, thereby stronglyenhancing the lifetime of gases in the forest boundary layer.     

ON THE PROCESS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER EAST ASIA

Using daily observational rainfall data covered 194 stations of China from 1961 to 1995 andNCEP model analyzed pentad precipitation data of global grid point from 1979 to 1997,thedistribution of onset date of rainy season over Asian area from spring to summer is studied in thispaper.The analyzed results show that there exist two stages of rainy season onset over East Asianregion from spring to summer rainy season onset accompanying subtropical monsoon and tropicalmonsoon respectively.The former rain belt is mainly formed by the convergence of cold air and therecurred southwesterly flow from western part of subtropical high and westerly flow from the so-called western trough of subtropical region occurring during winter to spring over South Asia.Thelatter is formed in the process of subtropical monsoon rain belt over inshore regions of South ChinaSea originally coming from south of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basin advancing with northwardshift of subtropical high after the onset of tropical monsoon over South China Sea.The pre-floodrainy season over South China region then came into mature period and the second peak of rainfallappeared.Meiyu,the rainy season over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin and North China thenformed consequently.The process of summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea in 1998is also discussed in this paper.It indicated that the monsoon during summer tropical monsoononset over South China Sea is the result of the westerly flow over middle part of South China Sea,which is from the new generated cyclone formed in north subtropical high entering into SouthChina Sea,converged with the tropical southwesterly flow recurred by the intensified cross-equatorial flow.     

西北太平洋迅速加强热带气旋的统计特征和识别预报试验

利用2000—2014年热带气旋(TC)最佳路径、最终分析资料和静止卫星红外云顶亮温(TBB)资料,对比分析了西北太平洋(WNP),以及南海(SCS)的迅速加强(RI),与非迅速加强(non-RI)TC样本的环境背景和TBB统计特征,其中non-RI样本细分为不同的强度变化率即:缓慢加强(SI),强度稳定、缓慢减弱和迅速减弱等。结果表明,相对于SI,WNP海域的RI样本处于海表温度较高、海洋上层热容量较大、最大可能强度较大、高层辐散较强、风垂直切变(VWS)较弱和高层纬向风(U200)偏东分量较大等环境背景条件下;SCS海域的RI样本较易发生在VWS较弱的环境背景条件下。此外,相对于non-RI,支持RI发展的有利条件还包括中低层相对湿度较大、高层环境温度较低等。RI样本通常具备的TBB特征为TC内核的对流云覆盖率较大、TBB平均值相对较小。采用K最近邻分类算法进行RI预报试验,交叉检验结果表明,该方法对RI样本有一定的识别预报能力,RI样本概括率达到74.2%,技巧评分达到0.717。     

GRAPES_TYM模式对TC路径及环境引导气流预报检验分析

对2012—2013年GRAPES_TYM模式热带气旋路径预报结果进行检验,结果表明:模式对所有类型路径预报在24h、48h和72h预报时效的平均距离误差分别为94.3km,143.7km和260.8km,并且存在偏北的系统性偏差;对于南海TC,模式对TC移向预报较实况偏右,移速误差较小,移向偏差是路径偏差的主要原因;另外统计得到模式对TC移向的预报偏差与对其环境引导气流预报偏差有密切的关系,以1213号台风"启德"为例进一步通过移向误差诊断方程探讨了环境引导气流预报偏差(包括环境风场预报偏差、环境引导气流半径偏差及环境引导气流厚度偏差)对TC移向偏差的影响,而环境引导气流预报误差来源与模式对大尺度天气系统、TC大小及强度的预报偏差有关。     

2013年影响海南热带气旋异常偏多成因分析

利用1983-2013年热带气旋年鉴、NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格点资料及国家气候中心74项环流指数资料等,统计分析了近30a西太平洋以及影响海南的热带气旋特征,并对2013年西太平洋热带气旋偏多、秋台集中以及影响海南热带气旋偏多的异常特征从天气学等方面进行了分析。结果表明,副热带高压、夏季风、越赤道气流、海表温度及北半球极涡等环流系统异常,是形成2013年西太平洋热带气旋偏多的主要原因。南半球冷高压发展激发越赤道气流增强,引发赤道西风加强;副热带高压偏北偏弱,夏季风增强,副高南侧热带辐合带对流活跃;南海-西太平洋海表温度偏高;极涡偏弱偏西,经向环流偏弱,中纬度冷空气活动不频繁等。多条件共同作用,有利于西太平洋热带气旋的生成。另外,副高呈东西向分布,南海海表温度偏高使得南海及菲律宾以东生成的热带气旋易于向西移动影响海南。     

西北太平洋热带云团发展与两类El Nio事件的联系

利用1982—2009年全球热带云团数据集、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和英国Hadley中心海温资料,并引入热带云团生成率(Genesis Productivity,GP)来分析EP(Eastern Pacific)El Nio和CP(Central Pacific)El Nio事件与西北太平洋热带云团发展的相关性。研究表明,1)夏秋两季GP与Nio3指数在东南区(SE)均为显著正相关,在西南区(SW)仅秋季呈显著正相关;GP与EMI(El Nio Modoki Index)指数在夏季SE区域为显著正相关,在秋季南中国海(South China Sea,SCS)区呈负相关。2)在EP El Nio年,夏季SE区域的GP增大与低层涡度、高层散度以及低层相对湿度的相对增大一致。夏季SW区域与秋季SE区域的GP增大与有利的高低空配置相关,La Nia年则与之相反。3)在CP El Nio年,夏季SE区域的GP增大伴随着低层涡度和高层散度的增加,同时与充足的水汽及弱风切变相吻合;而秋季SCS区域的GP下降源于正涡度带、正散度带以及水汽带的东移。     

基于多致灾因子相似的热带气旋检索方法研究:以风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估为例

热带气旋引起的风暴潮-海浪灾害成灾频率高、致灾强度大,对我国沿海地区造成的人员和经济损失惨重。预评估阶段需要在灾前对研究区可能造成的损失等进行快速的综合判定。从历史热带气旋中检索出与目标热带气旋位置及各种致灾因子强度相似的热带气旋是快速、准确地预评估风暴潮-海浪灾害的重要方法。面向风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估,提出了一种基于多致灾因子的相似热带气旋检索方法。用于相似检索的致灾因子数据包括:从中国气象局西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集中提取并经处理得到的1949~2013年影响湛江市的112场热带气旋的路径中心点位置、中心气压、最大风速、最大风速半径及移动速度数据,112场热带气旋的模拟风场、风暴潮及海浪数据。首先,利用相似离度方法对热带气旋进行路径相似性检索;其次,利用最优相似系数方法计算中心气压、最大风速半径、最大风速、移动速度、风场、风暴潮及海浪强度指标的相似系数进行一次检索;然后,根据风场、风暴潮及海浪模拟数据的获取情况,分别基于路径-强度及风场-风暴潮-海浪综合相似性指标进行二次检索;最终给出历史热带气旋的综合相似排序。以2013年尤特热带气旋为例,利用上述方法检索了与其最为相似的5场历史热带气旋。该方法综合考虑了热带气旋路径及多种致灾因子的相似,兼顾了检索的速度及质量,是进行快速、准确的风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估的重要基础。