A Regional Scale Investigation of Climatological Tropical Convection and Precipitation in the Amazon Basin

This study constructs a regional scale climatology of tropical convection and precipitation from more than 15 years of monthly outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and precipitation data on 2.5°× 2.5° latitude-longitude grid to examine the spatial and temporal patterns and variability of convection and precipitation in the Amazon Basin. A linear regression analysis also detects if any trends exist in the two datasets. The region of study extends from 15°N to 25°S and 30° to 80°W that encompass the Amazon Basin and surrounding fringe areas for the period from January 1979 through December 1995 for the OLR data and up to 1996 for the precipitation dataset. The basin-average mean monthly and seasonal climatology serve as a ‘baseline’ reference for comparison with the full time series of basin-average monthly OLR and precipitation to illustrate the interannual variability and identify anomalous periods of wet and dry conditions. A linear trend analysis of OLR data found small negative values across the Amazon Basin indicating a slight increase in convective activity over the period of study. The analysis of the precipitation time series, however, shows no coincidental increase in precipitation as would be expected with an increase in convective activity. Portions of Rondônia and Mato Grosso, areas that have undergone extensive deforestation, illustrate no trend in precipitation as suggested by GCM simulation results. The only area featuring any large change in precipitation occurs in a small area in the northwestern region of South America where a large positive trend in precipitation exists.     

Simulating hourly rainfall occurrence within an equatorial rainforest,Borneo Island / Simulation de l'occurrence de pluie horaire au sein de la forêt équatoriale,Ile de Bornéo

Abstract

The ability to simulate characteristics of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence, and its evolution over the seasons is important to the forecasting of hydrological impacts resulting from land-use and climate changes within the humid tropics. This stochastic modelling study uses a generalized linear model (GLM) solution to second-order Markov chain models, as these discrete models are better at describing binary occurrence processes on an hourly time-scale than continuous-time approaches such as stochastic state-space models. We show that transition probabilities derived by the Markov chain method need to be time-varying rather than stationary to simulate the evolution of the diurnal cycle of rainfall occurrence over a Southeast Asian monsoon sequence. The conceptual and pragmatic links between discrete diurnal processes and continuous processes occurring over seasonal periods are thereby simulated within the same model.     

Variability of extreme precipitation in coastal river basins of the southern mexican Pacific region

Extreme wet and dry years (± 1 standard deviation, respectively), as well as the top 95 percentile (P95) of daily precipitation events, derived from tropical cyclone (TC) and nontropical cyclone (NTC) rainfall, were analyzed in coastal river basins in Southern Oaxaca, Mexico (Río Verde, Río Tehuantepec, and the Southern Coast). The study is based on daily precipitation records from 47 quality-controlled stations for the 1961 to 1990 period and TC data for the Eastern Tropical Pacific (EPAC). The aim of this study was to evaluate extreme (dry and wet) trends in the annual contribution of daily P95 precipitation events and to determine the relationship of summer precipitation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacifical Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A regionalization based on a rotated principal component analysis (PCA) was used to produce four precipitation regions in the coastal river basins. A significant negative correlation (significance at the 95% level) was only found with ONI in rainfall Region 3, nearest to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wet years, mainly linked to TC-derived P95 precipitation events, were associated with SST anomalies (≥?0.6°C) similar to weak La Niña and Neutral cool conditions, while dry years were associated with SST positive anomalies similar to Neutral warm conditions (≤?0.5°C). The largest contribution of extreme P95 precipitation derived from TCs to the annual precipitation was observed in Region 3. A significant upward trend in the contribution of TC-derived precipitation to the annual precipitation was found only in Region 1, low Río Verde.     

Flooding in Fiji: findings from a 100-year historical series

Abstract

Correspondence from a long-established sugar mill provided the opportunity to construct the longest flood series for a river in Fiji—the Ba River in northwest Viti Levu—from 1892 to 2002. Flood waters reached the mill floor every four years on average. Contrary to common lore, this study could detect no increase in the frequency of major floods over the course of the 20th century, despite intensification of land use and siltation of the river channel over that time. Large, slow-moving tropical cyclones situated northwest of the valley have generated large floods, but so too have tropical rainstorms. Major floods have occurred in months when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was both negative and positive, suggesting that the SOI is a poor indicator of flood potential for the Ba River.     

Evidence of groundwater flow on Antizana ice-covered volcano,Ecuador / Mise en évidence d'écoulements souterrains sur le volcan englacé Antizana,Equateur

Abstract

Hydrological and glaciological data were gathered in the watershed (1.37 km²) of the Antizana Glacier 15 (0.7 km²) in the periods 1997–2002 and 1995–2005, respectively. In addition, tracer experiments were carried out to analyse the flow through permeable morainic deposits located between the glacier snout and the runoff gauging station. Over 11 years, the mean specific net balance of the glacier was negative (–627 mm w.e.), despite the occurrence of positive values in the La Niña years (1999–2000). From the glacier net mass balance between 1997 and 2002, it was found that the mean flow originating from ice melt was significantly higher than the mean discharge measured at the hydrological station. Analyses of tracer experiments and of the different components of the hydrological balance suggest groundwater flow that originates below the glacier accounts for the remaining water. This result is important for regional analyses of available water resources and for the relationship between hydro-cryospheric processes and volcanic activity.     

Locating Convection in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: A Gis-Based Analysis of Radar Reflectivities and Comparison to Lightning-Based Observations

Researchers have utilized radar reflectivity returns and lightning flashes separately and together to locate convection with tropical cyclones (TCs). Most studies utilizing both datasets have examined TCs over the ocean, while landfall observations have been limited to a few TCs. This study employs a GIS to delineate regions of high radar reflectivity values within 45 landfalling TCs. The percentage of convective regions contained within each quadrant placed relative to storm motion and deep-layer vertical wind shear is calculated. These percentages are then compared to those from previous studies of quadrant-based lightning flash locations. Results indicate that the GIS-based radar analysis may be identifying TC regions that are electrically active. Both the radar- and lightning-based analyses show that convection shifts from the right to the front of the storm as forward velocity increases. Convection is located left of the shear vector when storm motion is 45-135° counterclockwise from the shear vector, and downshear when shear-minus-motion angles are 315-45°. Additionally, storms that became extratropical within 72 hours of landfall had more convection forward of the circulation center and left of the shear vector, and may produce less lightning than the remaining TCs.     

Deforestation and fragmentation of seasonal tropical forests in the southern Yucatán,Mexico (1990–2006)

The southern Yucatán (SY) has been recognized as a hotspot of biodiversity with great risk of deforestation. Land change analysis, based on classified Landsat TM and ETM?+?satellite imagery (1990, 2000 and 2006), was used to estimate the annual deforestation rates of 141 land management units of the SY, and spatial patterns of forest fragmentation around and within the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve (CBR), which comprises approximately one-third of the region. Results indicate a decrease in annual deforestation rates over 1990–2006, from 0.15% year^?1 to 0.06% year^?1, but with significant sub-regional variations in the quantity and rate of forest loss. Despite a decline in deforestation during this period, there was considerable fragmentation both inside and outside the CBR. While population pressures and the expansion of pasture have caused deforestation across the region, agricultural intensification, diversified income strategies and reserve conservation may have contributed to reduced forest loss during the study period.     

Recent macroids on the Kikai‐jima shelf,Central Ryukyu Islands,Japan

Sandy and gravelly carbonate sediments found off Kikai‐jima, southern Japan, a coral reef‐related island shelf, represent the northernmost sub‐tropical, carbonate deposits in the Central Ryukyu Islands (Ryukyus). On the Kikai‐jima shelf, at water depths of 61 to 105 m, these sediments are characterized by macroid pavements. Since the abundance of very small and of exceptionally large macroids may indicate specific hydrodynamic controls regarding constraints on growth and taphonomy, the detailed analysis of recent and fossil macroid pavements is meaningful ecologically and environmentally. Macroids, ranging in size from ca 25 to 130 mm in diameter, are spheroidal and sub‐spheroidal in shape and consist mainly of the encrusting foraminifer Acervulina inhaerens and subordinate thin encrusting and lumpy coralline algae. Accessory components include bryozoans, serpulids and, to a lesser extent, encrusting arborescent foraminifera (Homotrema and Miniacina). Low sedimentation rates and occasional movement due to current action are indicated by sizes, shapes and growth‐forms of the studied macroids, the Entobia–Gastrochaenolites–Trypanites–Maeandropolydora ichnocoenosis and the ‘Bioerosion Index’ for coated grains (introduced herein). The deep‐water tidally induced current energy was sufficient to maintain multi‐directional growth (spheroidal shapes) of the larger macroids and to initiate macroid growth using the diverse biogenic remnants as nuclei. The asymmetrical inner arrangement suggests possible periods of stability for the macroids. The residence time of the coated grain in its original environment determines the size and morphology of the macroid and the selection of coating organisms. The composition of the coating community is mainly a consequence of component growth rates in relation to turnover time and residence time. Long‐term studies are needed to assess the spatial and temporal resolution of present‐day encrusting communities across biogeographic provinces and shelf to slope regions.     

双TC和梅雨锋共同作用下的一次暴雨过程分析

通过NCEP再分析资料计算各种物理量和应用卫星云图、雷达资料,并用WRF中尺模式做数值模拟,从动力过程、水汽输送过程、中小尺度系统等3个方面对TC和梅雨锋共同作用在浙北产生的一次暴雨过程进行分析。结论如下:(1)动力过程特点:300 hPa急流出口区辐散,中层3支气流汇合形成变形场锋生,产生强烈上升运动。低层TC外围的东南气流输入暖平流和湿位涡,使海上台风倒槽向北传播发展,最终形成气旋。TC高层流出气流对梅雨锋南侧垂直环流的维持有利;(2)水汽主要由两个TC外围的环流输送;(3)卫星云图和雷达回波显示有不同的降水云团合并且有加强的过程。用WRF中尺模式做数值模拟显示:700 hPa中小尺度的切变线或辐合区与强降水回波相对应。过程主要特点是中低层两个TC外围的气流与西风带气流在华东地区汇合,形成变形场锋生,产生强烈的辐合上升。在不同的气流汇合后产生了强急流输送水汽,加强垂直环流和中小尺度的辐合,是强降水产生的主要原因。西南季风经过台风绕流后在合适的环境场下仍有可能到达华东地区,这时往往与中纬度西风带汇合,在这种情况下会加强梅雨降水。     

Role of Storm in Ramgarh and West Bokaro Coalfields and Its Implication in Adjacent Peninsular Gondwana Coalfields, India

The Permian Gondwana sediments in the Damodar-Koel Valley, Rajmahal and Deoghar basins were deposited on a northwest palaeoslope in broad valleys within uplands (e.g. Aravalli-Vindhyan, Chattisgarh, Chotanagpur and Santhal Parganas upland). The main winds during Permian Period were mostly the westerly winds coming from the northwest low pressure belt in the Tethys, which found no barrier between the Vindhyan and Santhal Parganas uplands and then changing its direction, moving towards east. Frequent storm activity also took place from the northwest Tethyan low pressure belt and followed the same path of wind. Possibly there was a barrier in the form of a dense rain forest or elevated land at the place of East Bokaro coalfield and its adjoining southern part, which acted as a deterrent and minimized the effect of storm towards further east of the Damodar Valley. Intense tropical hurricanes for the generation of storm generated bedforms, cannot be ruled out, which probably, in some cases, causes marine inundation/flooding deep into the landmass and also mass (?) uprooting of trees.