APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL INTERPRETATION TECHNIQUES WITH NWP PRODUCTS FOR OBJECTIVE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

Statistical study is first performed of the efficiency of the technique of statistical interpretation using the products of NWP. The result shows that the application of the technique has improved the predictabilily of predictors in objective forecasting of tropical cyclone motion, increased the forecasting skill of models and extended the valid period of forecast. Then a discussion is made of some technical problems in the application in the motion forecasting, suggesting: a large sample of data and perfect forecast method be employed in constructing objective forecast models for tropical cyclone motion, predictors be included that are so finely built that they reflect all synoptic features and physical quantity fields and NWP products be used and corrected that are available at multiple times. It is one of the effective ways to improve the skill and stability of the forecast by composite use of outcomes from various forecasting models.     

Potential of marble dust to stabilise red tropical soils for road construction

The potential of marble dust as a stabilizing additive to red tropical soils was evaluated. The evaluation involved the determination of the geotechnical properties of three different red tropical soils in their natural state as well as when mixed with varying proportions of marble dust. The parameters tested included the particle size distribution, specific gravity, Atterberg limits, the standard compaction characteristics, the compressive strength and the California bearing ratio (CBR). The strength tests were repeated after normal 28 day curing of the treated samples and also after accelerated 24 h curing at temperatures of 40°C, 60°C and 80°C.

Results showed that the geotechnical parameters of red tropical soils are improved substantially by the addition of marble dust; plasticity was reduced by 20 to 33% and strength and CBR increased by 30 to 46% and 27 to 55% respectively. The highest strength and CBR values were achieved at 8% marble dust. Results also showed that normal 28 day curing improved the strength of the marble dust-treated soil with over 80% strength gain achieved after 7 to 10 days of normal curing. Higher strength development was realised following accelerated 24 h curing at 60°C.

Although these results imply marked improvement in the geotechnical parameters of red tropical soils, the higher strength developed is not enough for the improved soil to be used as a base material in the construction of heavily trafficked flexible pavements. The improved material may, however, be successfully used as base material for lightly trafficked roads and as a sub-base material for heavily trafficked roads.     

Urban steeplands in the tropics: an environment of accelerated erosion

The developing countries at present have a high urban growth rate that is likely to continue for at least another quarter-century. In addition, many of these urban centres are located in the Neogene plate boundary zones and are subject to multiple earthquake and volcanic hazards. Slope failures and accelerated surface and channel erosion are particularly severe in cities near active plate margins, and in areas affected also by tropical cyclones. We discuss two extreme cases: Singapore and Kingston (Jamaica). Singapore is located in a stable environment and the urbanization related problems of flood and slope instability have been reduced by proper building and drainage practices at a considerable cost. In Kingston, the external disturbances are repetitive, large-scale, and very difficult to control. The fast-growing cities in the tropics need to be carefully monitored, especially when located in an unstable physical environment. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Global temperature and monsoon activity

In this paper an attempt has been made to search a new parameter for the prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. For this purpose the relationship of the global surface-air temperature of four standard seasons viz., Winter (December-January-February), Spring (March-April-May), Summer (June-July-August), Autumn (September-October-November) with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been carried out. The same analysis is also carried out with surface-air temperature anomalies within the tropical belt (30°S to 30°N) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. For the present study data for 30 years period from 1958 to 1988 have been used. The analysis reveals that there is a strong inverse relationship between the monsoon activity and the tropical belt temperature.     

海南岛热带天然林动态变化

通过实地调查和对遥感信息、林业二类调查资料的研究,简要分析了海南岛森林的历史变迁和驱动原因,详细探讨了不同时期海南岛森林覆被动态变化过程与驱动因子。主要结论:1)海南热带天然林面积变化明显,从1950年的1200000hm²下降至1979年的415200hm²,到1998年恢复到614700hm²;2)从历史时期至现在,森林覆被变化可分为森林递减(～1987年)和森林恢复(1987～)两个时期;3)空间变化主要表现在:砍伐森林由沿海平原台地逐渐向内陆丘陵盆地扩展,最后到达中部山区;4)不同时期影响热带天然林变化的主要因素不同     

Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico

An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series.     

Continuous real‐time analysis of the isotopic composition of precipitation during tropical rain events: Insights into tropical convection

To investigate stable isotopic variability of precipitation in Singapore, we continuously analysed the δ‐value of individual rain events from November 2014 to August 2017 using an online system composed of a diffusion sampler coupled to Cavity Ring‐Down Spectrometer. Over this period, the average value (δ¹⁸O_Avg), the lowest value (δ¹⁸O_Low), and the initial value (δ¹⁸O_Init) varied significantly, ranging from ?0.45 to ?15.54‰, ?0.9 to ?17.65‰, and 0 to ?13.13‰, respectively. All 3 values share similar variability, and events with low δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg values have low δ¹⁸O_Init value. Individual events have limited intraevent variability in δ‐value (Δδ) with the majority having a Δδ below 4‰. Correlation of δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg with δ¹⁸O_Init is much higher than that with Δδ, suggesting that convective activities prior to events have more control over δ‐value than on‐site convective activities. The d‐excess of events also varies considerably in response to the seasonal variation in moisture sources. A 2‐month running mean analysis of δ¹⁸O reveals clear seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal variability is associated with the meridional movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and evolution of the Asian monsoon. El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a likely driver of interannual variability. During 2015–2016, the strongest El Niño year in recorded history, the majority of events have a δ¹⁸O value higher than the weighted average δ¹⁸O of daily precipitation. δ¹⁸O shows a positive correlation with outgoing longwave radiation in the western Pacific and the Asian monsoon region, and also with Oceanic Niño Index. During El Niño, the convection centre shifts eastward to the central/eastern Pacific, weakening convective activities in Southeast Asia. Our study shows that precipitation δ‐value contains information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which has a significant implication for the interpretation of water isotope data and understanding of hydrological processes in tropical regions.     

热带气旋气候数学模型的预报应用

使用西太平洋海温格点资料,选取若干个因子,组成多个复合因子,建立权重方程,使得单因子的相关系数信度检验0．05提高到复合因子的信度检验0．01,权重方程的信度检验提高到0．001。用权重方程产生的突变的高阶非线性预报方程,其Y与X的相关系数比1阶线性方程提高5％左右。自1999年至今,热带气旋年、月频数气候预测的模型投入到实际预报应用,其预报准确律达到75%～90％。使用非线性预报模型作了逐日气压、逐日雨量的气候预测。将沿海气压场、雨量场的气候预测结果用于分析、制作热带气旋登陆中国以及广东地区的时段、地段的气候预报,准确率达80％～90％。     

雷州半岛灯楼角热带海岸的景观生态分类

海岸景观由于其边缘效应而具有较高的生产力和生物多样性水平,尤其是本区的热带海岸景观,由于发育有我国大陆唯一的珊瑚礁而显独特。本文根据景观生态学的分类方法,将灯楼角热带海岸景观生态划分为3大类（自然景观、经营景观和人工景观）24亚类,并揭示了本区的景观生态系统的等级和景观的演变与时空分布;由陆向海方向上依次出现陆地景观、海岸景观和沿岸浅海景观,而区域自然景观的出现时间序列上,则是陆地景观、沿岸线海景观和海岸景观。     

广西沿海热带气旋大风数值预报探讨

本文采用旋衡风方程,推导热带气旋区域内风场和气压场的分布状况,把计算值与实测值进行回归统计,建立广西沿海热带气旋大风数值预报模式,效果较好,可供热带气旋预报中参考。