中国城镇化对老年人健康的影响

基于2010年第六次全国人口普查微观数据和夜间灯光数据等,运用多层级logistic回归模型估计中国城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的关联,分析城镇化健康效应在不同老年人群体间的差异,并运用倾向得分匹配方法,控制“自选择”机制对分析结果的干扰。结果表明：1）中国县区城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康呈显著正相关关系,居住于城镇化水平中等和城镇化速度较快县区的老年人更可能自评为健康;2）城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的关系在不同受教育程度和户口状态的老年人群体间存在显著差异,城镇化水平和速度对受教育程度较低、持有本地户口老年人健康水平的提升效益更大;3）控制了老年人居住“自选择”的干扰后,县区城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的正向关联依然稳健,表明“自选择偏误”对中国县区城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的关系没有显著的影响。     

基于直线间几何属性特征相似性约束的组直线匹配算法

当影像中存在多个相同或相近的直线特征时,仅利用单直线特征间的相似性进行匹配容易导致算法失效,因此本文提出基于直线间几何属性特征相似性约束的组直线匹配算法。该算法利用直线间的拓扑关系分别对2幅影像上提取的直线进行编组得到特征直线组,并将其作为匹配基元;然后利用核线约束确定候选同名直线组的搜索范围,精简了候选直线组的数量;依据直线间几何属性特征向量的仿射不变性建立直线组的匹配关系,将仿射不变量交比作为基础几何不变性测度,并延伸设计仿射相似度参数,计算出目标直线组与每个候选直线组的仿射相似度或一般相似度,确定2种相似度下总体相似度值最大的特征直线组为其同名直线组,最后将同名直线组分裂为2对同名单直线,对分裂后的结果进行整合可以显著降低冗余匹配,得到“一对一”的匹配单直线。为了验证算法的可靠性,实验选取网上公开的5组典型近景影像进行测试,通过与其他匹配算法的对比分析,结果表明该算法应对影像间存在的视角、旋转和尺度变换等复杂条件均取得了较高的匹配精度,匹配正确率最高有14.5%的提升,且阈值的选择对匹配结果影响微弱,验证了基于直线间几何属性特征相似性约束的组直线算法鲁棒性和匹配稳定性较强。     

基于粒子滤波的行车轨迹路网匹配方法

行车轨迹是一种时间序列的地理空间位置采样数据,而传统的轨迹—路网匹配方法主要以全局或局部寻优的方式建立轨迹—路网匹配关系,影响了时空场景中数据的匹配计算过程的相对独立性。针对这个问题,本文基于粒子滤波（Particle Filter,PF）原理建立行车轨迹与道路网络之间的匹配关系。首先,沿轨迹中车辆运动方向在道路网络中搜索邻近道路节点,在与道路节点拓扑邻接的道路弧段上初始化随机生成粒子,根据轨迹中车辆运动模型将粒子沿所在道路弧段移动;然后,基于PF原理计算各时刻粒子运动状态及与行车轨迹采样点之间的距离误差,根据高斯概率密度函数计算粒子权重并利用随机重采样方法进行粒子重采样,迭代更新粒子运动状态;最后,计算与搜索到的道路节点拓扑邻接的每条道路弧段中累计粒子权重,通过各道路弧段累计权重计算轨迹—路网匹配关系。以行车轨迹进行实验表明,利用本文方法可以通过粒子时空变化反映采样点的移动,行车轨迹—路网匹配结果的正确率大于85%,能够实现行车轨迹和路网的准确匹配。     

基于点序列和要素加权法的地图匹配算法

浮动车数据(Floating Car Data,FCD)已广泛应用于城市规划、智能交通系统中,其中地图匹配一直以来都是浮动车数据应用的技术难点。本文在已有地图匹配算法的基础上,提出了基于点序列和要素加权法的地图匹配模型,不仅考虑了当前GPS点的信息,同时也考虑了GPS数据的历史信息和道路网的拓扑结构,从空间关系上分析车辆行驶轨迹和道路的相似性。作者通过上海市出租车轨迹数据对算法进行验证,结果表明:该匹配模型解决了已有地图匹配算法的一些弊端,并且提高了地图匹配的精度,具有高效、实用的特点。     

一种改进的快速最小高差DEM匹配方法

利用最小高差(LZD)法进行DEM匹配时,当待匹配DEM的分辨率比参考DEM高时,确定的同名点中存在冗余,将导致计算冗余和效率降低。为解决上述问题,对LZD法确定同名点的模型进行改化,提出一种改进的基于最小高差原理的快速DEM匹配方法。该方法根据参考DEM的格网点确定同名点以避免冗余,并通过近似确定同名点及其高差,有效简化了计算过程。实验结果表明,该方法在保证较高的收敛速度和匹配精度的基础上,可有效提高计算效率,且计算效率不随待匹配DEM分辨率提高而降低,DEM间分辨率差异越大,方法的优势越明显。     

自适应窗口的SAR立体影像匹配方法

针对SAR立体影像间几何畸变对影像匹配的影响,该文提出一种自适应窗口的SAR立体影像匹配方法。首先引入外部粗分辨率DEM,根据影像参数和DEM高程精度约束匹配搜索范围。然后采用归一化互相关和测度进行辅影像匹配窗口自适应扩展匹配,以保证主辅影像匹配窗口内的灰度信息一致;归一化互相关和值最大时的辅影像匹配窗口为最佳匹配窗口,最佳匹配窗口的中心点为获取的匹配点。最后利用双向一致性约束剔除误匹配点。试验结果表明,本文方法在山地区域能有效地增加正确匹配点数量,提高匹配正确率。     

粗精匹配结合的矢量道路辅助惯性导航算法

针对无源环境下无法采用卫星导航定位方式对惯性导航系统的累积误差进行修正的问题,提出一种采用高精度的矢量道路数据进行粗精匹配的导航校正算法。该方法首先通过分析惯导轨迹的特征标示点以及外接矩形,剔除明显的误匹配道路和冗余道路,获取待匹配道路集合;进而,结合ICCP算法具有匹配精度较高,匹配结果较稳定的优点,完成惯导轨迹位置误差的补偿和校正;最后,根据匹配方差和历史匹配轨迹对匹配结果的准确性进行分析和判断。仿真实验结果表明,该算法能够提高惯性导航定位误差的校正精度,减少在复杂道路交叉口等情况的误匹配。     

小比例尺道路网眼约束下的多尺度道路网自动匹配

针对道路网多尺度匹配的问题,提出了一种在小比例尺数据道路网眼约束下的多尺度道路匹配方法。首先,构建两幅不同比例尺数据的道路网眼;其次,在小比例尺道路网眼的约束下,提取出大比例尺道路中由若干道路网眼构成的复合网眼,并完成与小比例尺道路网眼具有多对一和一对一关系的网眼匹配;然后,实现不同比例尺道路网眼的多对多匹配;最后,由复合网眼与小比例尺道路网眼的匹配关系转化为多比例尺道路网眼边界道路之间的匹配和内部道路之间的匹配,完成整个道路网的匹配。试验结果证明,本方法能较好地实现多尺度道路网的匹配。     

IMPACT OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING SUMMER MONSOON

The intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) of the South China Sea(SCS, 105-120°E, 5-20°N) convection and its influences on the genesis and track of the western North Pacific(WNP) tropical cyclones(TCs) were explored, based on the daily average of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the OLR data and the western North Pacific tropical cyclone best-track data from 1979 to 2008. The mechanism of the influences of ISO on TC movement and the corresponding large-scale circulation were discussed by a trajectory model. It was found as follows.(1) During the SCS summer monsoon, the SCS convection exhibits the ISO features with active phases alternating with inactive phases. The monsoon circulation patterns are significantly different during these two phases. When the SCS convection is active(inactive), the SCS-WNP monsoon trough stretches eastward(retreats westward) due to the activity(inactivity) of SCS monsoon, and the WNP subtropical high retreats eastward(stretches westward), which enhances(suppresses) the monsoon circulation.(2) The amount of TC genesis in the active phase is much more than that in the inactive phase. A majority of TCs form west of 135 °E during the active phases but east of 135 °E in the inactive phases.(3) The TCs entering the area west of 135 °E and south of 25 °N would move straight into the SCS in the active phase, or recurve northward in the inactive phase.(4) Simulation results show that the steering flow associated with the active(inactive)phases is in favor of straight-moving(recurving) TCs. Meanwhile, the impacts of the locations of TC genesis on the characteristics of TC track cannot be ignored. TCs that occurred father westward are more likely to move straight into the SCS region.     

Community forest management in Indonesia: Avoided deforestation in the context of anthropogenic and climate complexities

Community forest management has been identified as a win-win option for reducing deforestation while improving the welfare of rural communities in developing countries. Despite considerable investment in community forestry globally, systematic evaluations of the impact of these policies at appropriate scales are lacking. We assessed the extent to which deforestation has been avoided as a result of the Indonesian government’s community forestry scheme, Hutan Desa (Village Forest). We used annual data on deforestation rates between 2012 and 2016 from two rapidly developing islands: Sumatra and Kalimantan. The total area of Hutan Desa increased from 750 km² in 2012 to 2500 km² in 2016. We applied a spatial matching approach to account for biophysical variables affecting deforestation and Hutan Desa selection criteria. Performance was assessed relative to a counterfactual likelihood of deforestation in the absence of Hutan Desa tenure. We found that Hutan Desa management has successfully achieved avoided deforestation overall, but performance has been increasingly variable through time. Hutan Desa performance was influenced by anthropogenic and climatic factors, as well as land use history. Hutan Desa allocated on watershed protection forest or limited production forest typically led to a less avoided deforestation regardless of location. Conversely, Hutan Desa granted on permanent or convertible production forest had variable performance across different years and locations. The amount of rainfall during the dry season in any given year was an important climatic factor influencing performance. Extremely dry conditions during drought years pose additional challenges to Hutan Desa management, particularly on peatland, due to increased vulnerability to fire outbreaks. This study demonstrates how the performance of Hutan Desa in avoiding deforestation is fundamentally affected by biophysical and anthropogenic circumstances over time and space. Our study improves understanding on where and when the policy is most effective with respect to deforestation, and helps identify opportunities to improve policy implementation. This provides an important first step towards evaluating the overall effectiveness of this policy in achieving both social and environmental goals.