Risk tolerance measure for decision-making in fuzzy analysis: a health risk assessment perspective

In risk assessment studies it is important to determine how uncertain and imprecise knowledge should be included into the simulation and assessment models. Thus, proper evaluation of uncertainties has become a major concern in environmental and health risk assessment studies. Previously, researchers have used probability theory, more commonly Monte Carlo analysis, to incorporate uncertainty analysis in health risk assessment studies. However, in conducting probabilistic health risk assessment, risk analyst often suffers from lack of data or the presence of imperfect or incomplete knowledge about the process modeled and also the process parameters. Fuzzy set theory is a tool that has been used in propagating imperfect and incomplete information in health risk assessment studies. Such analysis result in fuzzy risks which are associated with membership functions. Since possibilistic health risk assessment studies are relatively new, standard procedures for decision-making about the acceptability of the resulting fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp standard set by the regulatory agency are not fully established. In this paper, we are providing a review of several available approaches which may be used in decision-making. These approaches involve defuzzification techniques, the possibility and the necessity measures. In this study, we also propose a new measure, the risk tolerance measure, which can be used in decision making. The risk tolerance measure provides an effective metric for evaluating the acceptability of a fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp compliance criterion. Fuzzy risks with different membership functions are evaluated with respect to a crisp compliance criterion by using the possibility, the necessity, and the risk tolerance measures and the results are discussed comparatively.     

Summer and winter drought in a cold desert ecosystem (Colorado Plateau) part I: effects on soil water and plant water uptake

We investigated the effects of winter and summer drought on plants of the Colorado Plateau in western North America. This winter-cold, summer-hot desert region receives both winter and summer precipitation. Droughts were imposed for two consecutive years using rainout shelters. Here, we examine drought effects on the hydrologic interactions between plants and soil. We chose three perennial species for this study, representing different rooting patterns and responsiveness to precipitation pulses: Oryzopsis hymenoides, a perennial bunch grass with shallow roots; Gutierrezia sarothrae, a subshrub with dimorphic roots; and Ceratoides lanata, a predominantly deep-rooted woody shrub. Drought effects on plant water status were qualitatively similar among species, despite morphological differences. Summer drought affected the water status of all species more negatively than winter drought. Isotopic analysis of stem water revealed that all three species took up deeper soil water under drought conditions and shallow soil water after a large rainfall event in summer. Thus all three species appeared to use the same water sources most of the time. However, after a particularly dry summer, only the deepest-rooted species continued to take up soil water, while the more shallow-rooted species were either dead or dormant. Our study suggests therefore that increased occurrence of summer drought could favor the most deep-rooted species in ecosystem.     

Production of bioplastics and hydrogen gas by photosynthetic microorganisms

Experiments on salimity tolerance of embryos and larvae of the southern bay scallopArgopecten irradians concentricus Say under controlled temperature of 28°C showed that although the eggs were fertilized and cleaved at salinity 18.1–37.4, they could further develop into normal D-shaped larvae only at salinity 23.4–36.1, while the trochophore larvae could develop into normal D—shaped larvae at salinity 22.1–39.9. For 72 hours, the larvae could tolerate salinity of 18.4–43.9, the salinity favoring growth was 19.8–42.4; the suitable range was 21–36, and the optimum at about 28. They metamorphosed at salinity 18.9–43.5, optimally at 24–32. Contribution No. 3301 from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The research was supported by the National Climbing Project B(PDB6-3-2).     

Die Auswirkungen der Wasserstände am Bodensee auf das Deschampsietum rhenanae zwischen 1989 und 2003

The Deschampsietum rhenanae is an endemic and endangered lakeshore community growing in the upper littoral of Lake Constance, the occurrence of which has been reduced dramatically during the last 100 years. The existence of this community depends on the seasonal water level changes of the unregulated, prealpine Lake Constance. Long-term monitoring indicates that the typical species of the Deschampsietum rhenanae and their competitors may be strongly affected by extreme water levels. An earlier onset of the water level increase in spring could potentially pose a threat to the Deschampsietum rhenanae, especially if the water level rises before seed ripening in the Deschampsietum rhenanae.     

Sensitivity of tropical-African aquatic invertebrates to short-term trends in lake level and salinity: a paleolimnological test at Lake Oloidien,Kenya

Aquatic invertebrates are intrinsically capable of rapid and sensitive response to changes in their lacustrine habitat. Fossil invertebrate assemblages preserved in the sediments of a climate-sensitive lake can thus produce high-resolution proxy records of past climate. In shallow lakes, however, a potential conflict exists between the sensitivity of biota to frequent habitat change in their fluctuating environment and the increased probability of disturbance of selected proxy records by bioturbation and physical mixing of sediments. I investigated this problem with tropical-African aquatic invertebrate faunas in a paleolimnological sensitivity study that incorporates both the response of biota to short-term habitat change and the taphonomic integrity of fossil assemblages in a small, shallow, and hydrologically closed lacustrine basin. Analysis of chironomid, cladoceran, and ostracode remains in a²¹⁰Pb-dated short core from Lake Oloidien (Kenya) indicates that habitat changes accompanying the late 19th- and 20th-century fluctuations in lake level (Z _max range: 3 to 18 m) and salinity (conductivity range:c. 400 toc. 2000–4000 µS cm^–1) were sufficient to drastically alter the composition of local benthic and planktonic invertebrate faunas. This response remained relatively unaffected by taphonomic phenomena during its incorporation into the sediment record. Results indicate that tropical-African aquatic invertebrate faunas in suitable climate-sensitive lakes are a valuable tool to resolve paleoclimatic fluctuations on a timescale of decades.This paper was presented at the VI Palaeolimnology Symposium, held at Canberra in April 1993. Dr. Mark Brenner guest edited this contribution.     

应用多种测量软件对地图后期处理

随着电子地图的出现和各种测量软件的开发,地形图实现了美观化和统一化。而各种测绘软件提供的开放性,也使我们可以在不同的测绘软件中对地形图加以编辑和修改,充分利用各个测绘软件的优势。本文结合实际工作经验,针对具体工作中遇到的一些问题,利用各种测绘软件的结合,使一些问题得到解决,并使图形更趋于美观化。     

丛枝菌根影响土壤-植物系统中重金属迁移转化和累积过程的机制及其生态应用

丛枝菌根真菌(AMF)是在自然和农业生态系统中广泛存在的一类专性共生土壤微生物,能够与80%左右的陆地植物建立共生关系。AMF从宿主植物获取碳水化合物以维系自身生长;作为回报,AMF能够帮助植物从土壤中吸收矿质养分和水分。很多研究表明,AM共生体系对于植物适应各种逆境胁迫(如贫瘠、干旱、环境污染等)具有重要作用。在土壤重金属污染情况下,AMF能够通过多种途径影响植物对重金属的吸收、累积和解毒过程,并对植物产生保护效应。本文围绕AM对土壤-植物系统中重金属迁移、转化和累积过程的影响机制,系统评述了金属元素种类及污染程度、宿主植物和AMF种类,以及土壤理化性质等因素对AM植物吸收累积重金属的影响,并从AMF对土壤-植物系统中重金属行为的直接作用(包括菌丝吸收和固持,以及改变根际重金属形态等),及AMF改善植物矿质营养促进植物生长从而间接增强植物重金属耐性两方面讨论了AM增强植物重金属耐性的机理,系统总结了相关研究领域的前沿动态。最后,对菌根技术在农田和矿区重金属污染土壤生物修复中的应用前景进行了展望。     

沙柳优良品系选育的研究

对鄂尔多斯不同地区沙柳的表现型进行调查,并对7个不同地区的沙柳进行选育,对表现型优良的6个品系做耐盐性研究,结果表明:鄂尔多斯市不同地区沙柳的表现型存在较大差异,以台格庙地区沙柳的表现型最好,平均丛枝数和丛高分别达162枝和4.19 m,平均冠幅为5.15 m,与其他地区相比在p=0.05水平下差异显著;图克和查干尔淖地区沙柳表现型相对较差;选育后阿门其和台格庙两个地区沙柳生长性状相对较好,无性系繁殖苗成活率均达到90%以上,丛高和地径均高于其他地区无性系繁殖苗;查干尔淖地区无性系沙柳繁殖苗长势最差;筛选的6个沙柳品系均能在中度盐碱滩上生长,利用隶属函数分析法综合评价了6个沙柳品系的抗逆性强弱,筛选出了沙柳两个抗逆性优良品系,即Ⅲ-01和Ⅷ-02。这两个品系表现型优良,抗逆性强,适于在西北干旱、盐碱地上推广栽植。     

A retrospective analysis of contamination and periphyton PICT patterns for the antifoulant irgarol 1051, around a small marina on the Swedish west coast

Irgarol is a triazine photosystem II (PSII) inhibitor that has been used in Sweden as an antifouling ingredient since the 1990s. Early microcosm studies indicated that periphyton was sensitive to irgarol at concentrations regularly found in harbours and marinas. However, field studies of irgarol effects on the Swedish west coast in 1994, using the pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) approach, failed to detect any effects of the toxicant in the field. A PICT study involves sampling of replicate communities in a gradient of contamination, and a comparison of their community tolerance levels, with an increase being an indication that sensitive species have been eliminated and replaced by more tolerant ones. Typically, short-term assays are used to quantify the community tolerance levels. Later PICT studies in the same area over a 10 year period demonstrate that irgarol tolerance levels have increased, although the contamination pattern has been stable. Our results support the hypothesis that that the PICT potential was low initially, due to a small differential sensitivity between the community members, and that a persistent selection pressure was required to favour and enrich irgarol-tolerant species or genotypes.