兰州盆地新石器时期遗址分布与地形的关系研究

研究遗址和地形等环境要素的关系有助于理解人地关系的作用机制。基于GIS空间分析和二元逻辑斯蒂模型分析了兰州盆地新石器时期马家窑和齐家文化遗址空间分布的特征、变化规律及影响因素,定量研究了地形等环境要素与遗址分布的关系。结果表明：新石器时期的马家窑文化、半山文化、马厂文化和齐家文化遗址均沿黄河分布,主要集中于河流阶地上坡度较小的区域。距河流的水平最近距离为318.6~17 721.7 m。新石器遗址特别是马厂遗址的空间集聚性明显。从马家窑类型、半山类型,发展到马厂类型,单一型遗址的占比逐渐由53.3%增多至92.6%。马厂类型的分布中心距离黄河最近。地形等环境要素显著影响遗址的空间分布,遗址出现概率主要受坡度、坡向和距黄河最近距离的影响,模型的解释程度可达65.0%。引入历史时期和现代聚落进行比较,历史时期聚落分布受到高程和坡度的影响,而现代聚落的分布主要受到高程、坡度和距河流距离的影响。聚落分布和影响因素的演变可能受到社会生产力发展的影响。     

毛乌素沙地东南缘全新世气候不稳定性

毛乌素沙地处于中国季风区的西北边缘,对气候变化敏感,是古气候演化和古环境变迁研究的理想场所。全新世气温回暖期,气候整体稳定但存在暖湿冷干的次级波动,不同类型沉积相组成的地层序列记录了全新世千年、百年尺度的气候不稳定性。对毛乌素沙地不同沉积序列的研究表明:(1)毛乌素沙地东南缘的沙漠/黄土边界带DLT、NB剖面粒度及Rb/Sr比值可作为气候变化的代用指标。>63 μm砂含量增加,Rb/Sr比值降低,揭示东亚冬季风增强,风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候干冷;反之,东亚夏季风增强,降水增多,风化成壤程度加大,气候暖湿。(2)毛乌素沙地东南缘沙漠/黄土边界带及低洼沟谷区年代概率密度函数的分析显示,全新世早期~8\^5 ka BP风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候表现为干冷;全新世中期8\^5 ka~3\^0 ka BP地势较高处古土壤广泛发育,地势低洼处发育湖沼相/泥炭层,但在6.0 ka BP左右存在气候转冷过程;全新世晚期3\^0 ka BP以来气候波动频繁。(3)毛乌素沙地气候变化与北大西洋冰筏冷事件、董哥洞石笋、季风边缘区湖泊、东部沙地等记录具有可对比性和相对一致性,反映出全新世千年和百年尺度上的气候变化主要受全球变化的影响,这对预测和模拟未来气候变化具有借鉴意义。     

Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

Simulating cross-sectional geometry of the main channel in response to changes in water and sediment in Lower Yellow River

Journal of Geographical Sciences - To understand the non-equilibrium morphological adjustment of a river in response to environmental changes, it is essential to (i) accurately identify how past...     

Post-earthquake economic resilience and recovery efficiency in the border areas of the Tibetan Plateau: A case study of areas affected by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan,China in 2008

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The border areas of the Tibetan Plateau and the neighboring mountainous areas have a high incidence of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than Ms 5.0, as well...     

气候变化下基于物种与植物耦联机制的小白额雁(Anser erythropus)潜在生境及适宜性研究--以长江流域中下游为例

气候变化和人类活动通过改变物种生境而影响物种多样性。小白额雁是长江流域中下游的一种具有较高生态价值的食草型濒危候鸟,受气候变化和人类活动威胁。本文以小白额雁为代表性物种,定量分析了气候变化对长江流域中下游候鸟潜在生境及适宜性空间分布格局的影响。采用Maxent模型模拟了当前情景和全球环流模型(GCMs)气候场景下小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性分布。研究结果表明,小白额雁分布特征与其栖息地周边植物分布呈显著相关关系;运用Maxent模型模拟小白额雁六种主要食源植物的分布特征,并将其结果作为环境变量,将显著改善小白额雁潜在生境及其适宜性模型的模拟性能;在两种典型浓度情景(RCP 2.6和RCP8.5)下,2070年小白额雁潜在生境适宜性面积将下降。为应对气候变化对小白额雁的影响,应采取更加合理的管理措施和保护政策,包括调整保护区的大小、形状和用途。     

Supply and Demand Levels for Livestock and Poultry Products in the Chinese Mainland and the Potential Demand for Feed Grains

The widening gap between the supply and demand levels for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland poses a significant challenge to the secure supply of feed grains. Therefore, the accurate prediction of the demand potential for feed grains represents a key scientific issue for ensuring food security in the Chinese mainland. This study is based on an analysis of several factors, such as the Chinese mainland’s output, trade volume, apparent consumption of livestock and poultry products, and two different scenarios for predicting the future demand for feed grains are assessed. The results indicate that output and consumption of livestock and poultry products, as well as the country’s trade deficit and the pressure of the supply and demand balance with respect to these products, have been increasing in recent years. The analysis predicts that the demand for feed grains in the Chinese mainland will reach 425.5 or 389.6 million tons in 2030 based on the two scenarios. This finding indicates that with the increasing demand for livestock and poultry products in the Chinese mainland, the demand for feed grains will continue to increase, and the shortfall in feed grains and raw materials will expand further, especially dependence on external sources of protein-rich feed grains will remain high.     

地表覆盖分类成果质量特征分析

自我国全面建成地理国情普查成果库之后,工作重心由全面普查变为重点监测。不论普查还是监测,准确地对地表覆盖进行分类一直是工作的重点和难点。在常态化监测阶段,把握地表覆盖分类成果的主要质量指标,归纳其诸如变化率、变化区域分布、变化类型,分析影响其成果质量的主要因素,对监测生产组织及质量控制具有非常重要的作用。     

青岛市生态环境变化遥感监测与分析

城市化进程不断加快带来一系列生态环境问题,本文利用植被指数、湿度指数、地表温度、建筑物—裸土指数定量表征绿度、湿度、热度、干度4个生态要素指标,通过主成分分析法,建立遥感生态指数模型,并从时间和空间两个维度对比分析2013、2019年两个时期遥感生态指数。结果表明,青岛市生态环境呈局部优化改进、整体下降趋势;同时,将青岛市遥感生态指数与人类活动相关的地表覆盖变化数据、路网交通数据、夜光数据进行耦合性分析,进一步分析探寻生态环境变化的影响因子。     

加权总体最小二乘的效率优化算法

加权总体最小二乘法是理论上估计EIV模型参数相对严密的方法,其迭代过程中涉及的矩阵运算较为耗时,在处理大量级数据时尤其明显。PEIV模型有助于提高加权总体最小二乘法的计算效率。本文基于PEIV模型和经典最小二乘准则给出了一种加权总体最小二乘法算法,算法的推导过程简洁,易于理解,迭代过程中无需重构矩阵,减少了矩阵运算量。最后通过仿真试验验证了算法的可靠性。试验结果表明,本文算法可以取得与现有算法相同的参数估计精度且计算效率更高。