CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。     

温度、盐度和光照对浒苔生长和光合作用的影响

Intensive Pyropia aquaculture in the coast of southwestern Yellow Sea and its subsequent waste, including disposed Ulva prolifera, was speculated to be one of the major sources for the large-scale green tide proceeding in the Yellow Sea since 2007. It was, however, unclear how the detached U. prolifera responded and resumed growing after they detached from its original habitat. In this study, we investigated the growth and photosynthetic response of the detached U. prolifera to various temperature, salinity and irradiance in the laboratory. The photosynthetic rate of the detached U. prolifera was significantly higher at moderate temperature levels(14–27°C)and high salinity(26–32), with optimum at 23°C and 32. Both low(14°C) and highest temperature(40°C), as well as low salinity(8) had adverse effects on the photosynthesis. Compared with the other Ulva species, U. prolifera showed higher saturated irradiance and no significant photoinhibition at high irradiance, indicating the great tolerance of U. prolifera to the high irradiance. The dense branch and complex structure of floating mats could help protect the thalli and reduce photoinhibition in field. Furthermore, temperature exerted a stronger influence on the growth rate of the detached U. prolifera compared to salinity. Overall, the high growth rate of this detached U. prolifera(10.6%–16.7% d~(–1)) at a wide range of temperature(5–32°C) and salinity(14–32) implied its blooming tendency with fluctuated salinity and temperature during floating. The environmental parameters in the southwestern Yellow Sea at the beginning of green tide were coincident with the optimal conditions for the detached U. prolifera.     

Three dimensional seismic studies of deep-water hazard-related features on the northern slope of South China Sea

Mass transport deposits and geological features related to fluid flow such as gas chimneys, mud diapirs and volcanos, pockmarks and gas hydrates are pervasive on the canyon dominated northern slope of the Pearl River Mouth basin of the South China Sea. These deposits and structures are linked to serious geohazards and are considered risk factors for seabed installations. Based on high resolution three dimensional seismic surveys, seismic characteristics, distributions and origins of these features are analyzed. A distribution map is presented and geometrical parameters and spatial distribution patterns are summarized. Results show that various groups of the mapped features are closely tied to local or regional tectonism and sedimentary processes. Mass transport complexes are classified as slides near the shelf break, initially deformed slumps on the flanks of canyons and highly deformed slumps on the lower slope downslope of the mouth of canyons. We propose them to be preconditioned by pore pressure changes related to sea level fluctuations, steep topography, and fluid and fault activities. Gas chimneys are mainly located in the vicinity of gas reservoirs, while bottom-simulating reflectors are observed within the gas chimney regions, suggesting gas chimneys serve as conduits for thermogenic gas. Mud diapirs/volcanos and pockmarks are observed in small numbers and the formation of pockmarks is related to underlying gas chimneys and faults. This study aims at reducing risks for deep-water engineering on the northern slope of South China Sea.     

Fracture characteristics in Cretaceous platform and overlying ramp carbonates: An outcrop study from Maiella Mountain (central Italy)

This article focuses on field- and laboratory-based characterization of vertically persistent fractures that are part of oblique-slip normal fault zones and crosscut the Cretaceous platform and overlaying ramp carbonates outcropping at Maiella Mountain (central Italy). The achieved results show that: (i) fault damage zones are wider and more densely fractured in the platform carbonates than in the ramp ones; (ii) joints and sheared joints composing the fault damage zones are taller, better connected and less spaced within the former rocks than in the ramp carbonates. The aforementioned structural differences are interpreted to be a consequence of the different mechanical properties of the platform and ramp carbonates during failure. At Maiella Mountain, platform carbonates are, indeed, made up of overall stiffer (higher Uniaxial Compressive Strength values) and less porous rocks, due to more abundant intergranular void-filling cement and presence of matrix.In terms of hydrocarbon flow and recovery, geometric and dimensional attributes of fractures suggest that the well-connected network of closely spaced fractures cutting across the platform carbonates may form efficient pathways for both vertical and horizontal hydrocarbon flow. In contrast, the relatively poorly connected and low-density fracture network affecting the ramp carbonates is likely less efficient in providing fairways for flowing hydrocarbons.     

Marine science and technology transfer: Can the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission advance governance of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction?

Marine scientific research is crucial to forge solutions in the development of a new international legally binding instrument for the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea . The transfer of marine technology, capacity development and marine genetic resources are key issues. This paper examines how the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), as a competent international organisation for marine scientific research and technology transfer, can inform the development of the instrument. Synergies between marine technology transfer and non-monetary benefit sharing of genetic resources are illustrated. Four key lessons from the IOC are examined: 1. Coordinating international cooperation in marine scientific research; 2. Enabling open access to data and knowledge; 3. Facilitating capacity development through scientific training and education; and 4. Governance of marine scientific research. Realising the potential of the IOC to advance governance solutions for ABNJ will depend on increased political will from Member States and strengthened partnerships to reduce resource constraints and enhance the IOC's capacity at global and regional scales.     

西北印度洋中脊玄武岩源区地幔特征

利用全球岩石地球化学数据库(Pet DB)中有关卡尔斯伯格洋脊(CR)、北中印度洋脊(NCIR)及南中印度洋脊(SCIR)玄武岩的微量元素及同位素组成数据,分析了玄武岩的元素地球化学特征及其沿脊轴的变化,旨在探讨玄武岩源区地幔的(不)均一性及岩浆作用过程的差异。初步研究结果表明:CR、NCIR及SCIR玄武岩组成相近,仅在个别脊段表现有微量稀土元素和同位素组成上的差异,玄武岩整体与N-MORB组成特征相近,与先前通常认为的典型印度洋中脊玄武岩不同。玄武质岩浆主要源自尖晶石二辉橄榄岩地幔的熔融,岩浆源区主要由两个地幔端元构成,即以亏损型地幔(DMM)为主(69%),其次为富集型地幔(EMⅡ,27%)。富集组分可能源自古老陆壳物质的混染。自CR经NCIR到SCIR整个印度洋中脊西北分支玄武岩的Sr、Nd及Pb同位素组成表现出均一性,表明岩浆源区地幔组成相近。在SCIR 19°S附近脊段岩浆源区地幔存在有不均一性,有EMⅡ型地幔端元混入的迹象。在CR 3.5°N附近脊段,玄武岩明显富集K、Ba、La及U等微量元素,但由于缺少同位素数据,源区地幔特征有待进一步研究。在上述研究成果的基础上,提出了该区大比例尺的调查填图及密集采样和精细室内分析是CR深入研究的基础,同时加强Sr、Nd、Pb及Re、Os、Be等同位素分析测试,可提供揭示CR地幔不均一性的可靠依据,而厘清印度洋型地幔对CR的影响程度则有助于深入认识地幔不均一性的成因及地幔动力学过程。     

基于HJ-1A/1B的2014年黄海海域浒苔灾害时空分布

自2007年以来, 黄海海域每年的5月初～8月中下旬浒苔(Ulva prolifera)会周期性地暴发与消亡,导致海洋生态环境被破坏以及经济损失。利用2014 年的HJ-1A/1B遥感影像, 利用神经网络监督分类及RULE规则影像重分类动态阈值法, 对2014年的浒苔的漂移路径、各时期影响的海域面积、分布面积以及暴发高峰期的最大面积进行了动态监测。结果表明, 2014年浒苔持续时间为101 d, 5月中旬开始在江苏省盐城市近海出现零星斑点, 分布面积为2.299 km², 影响面积为1 744.799 km²; 6月初到6月中旬浒苔广泛分布于黄海海域, 分布面积扩大至1 367.145 km², 达到当年的峰值; 从6月下旬开始, 浒苔进入衰退期, 浒苔分布面积、相对聚集密度均急剧缩小, 但影响面积的峰值出现在该时期; 8月初消亡于青岛附近海岸, 8月20日遥感影像已难以监测到浒苔的存在。2014年黄海海域浒苔经过了“出现—发展—暴发—衰退—消亡”5个发展阶段。     

南海中尺度涡强度的季节和年际变化分析

为了研究南海中尺度涡强度的季节和年际变化规律,利用Matlab提取50 a(1958~2007年)简单海洋资料同化(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation,SODA)月平均数据集中流场和海表面高度场数据,应用一个涡旋自动探测算法对南海中尺度涡初始生成位置进行分析,并分析了海表面高度异常均方根值的季节变化和年际变化。结果表明:50 a里南海中尺度涡主要分布在吕宋岛西北海域、吕宋岛西南海域和越南以东广大海域,秋、冬季中尺度涡能量较高,春季中尺度涡最弱,中尺度涡强度高值区年际变化明显。从季节变化上看,海面高度异常均方根春、夏季最小,秋冬季最大;从年际变化上看,与同时期Nino3指数有显著负相关,周期大约为3 a。     

渤海湾曹妃甸深槽海区地形地貌特征及控制因素

通过研究浅层地震剖面、侧扫声纳和水深地形等数据资料,得出,曹妃甸沙岛的岬角地貌引起深槽海域局部潮流流速增大,甸头前沿深槽区以冲刷为主,最大水深达42 m,刷新了渤海湾最大水深记录,深槽部位的侵蚀量最大,深槽南坡冲刷幅度大于北坡,工程建设后期深槽区侵蚀冲刷程度有变小变缓趋势。早期深槽的形成是由于浅部断层受深部构造影响发生阶梯状错断沉陷,海底地层形成古凹槽,但深槽海底地层沉陷速率略大于沉积速率,使得深槽海域长期保持了渤海湾最大的水深环境。初步得出在历史时期曹妃甸深槽经过2万a以上长期存在,深槽的走向经历了南北向-北东向-北西向的转化过程。认为地质构造、古滦河三角洲演变、海洋水动力作用和人类活动等内外营力作用共同控制了曹妃甸海区地貌体系的发育与演化。达到了研究渤海湾曹妃甸深槽海区地形地貌控制因素和深槽的地质演化的目的,为曹妃甸港的规划、运营期维护和未来发展提供科学依据具有重要意义。     

黄海海浪季节变化的数值模拟研究

利用第三代海浪数值模式SWAN,研究了黄海海浪有效波高的季节变化特征及相关的物理过程。结果表明,在黄海的大部分区域,混合浪有效波高的最大值出现在冬季,而最小值则基本出现在夏季。北黄海北部和山东半岛南岸的近海海域呈现稍微不同的季节变化,有效波高的最大值出现在春季。全年4个季节中混合浪有效波高的空间分布基本一致:均在济州岛西南最大,沿黄海中部区域向北和由中部区域向近岸区域逐渐减小。黄海海浪为风浪占主,涌浪有效波高远小于风浪有效波高。在黄海的大部分区域,白冠耗散和四波非线性相互作用对黄海海浪的季节变化均至关重要;对于外海区域,四波非线性相互作用更为重要,而对于近海区域,白冠耗散则影响更大。本研究旨在研究黄海海浪的季节变化特征及其物理过程,为进一步探讨该海域海浪在其他时间尺度上的变异特征和动力学过程提供研究基础。