云南强震地下流体源兆特征研究

区分"源兆"与"场兆",系地震预测探索中的重要课题。根据云南4组6级以上地震的地下流体前兆异常资料,系统分析了强震源兆的流体前兆异常特征。结果表明,在6级多强震的源兆区,即震中距100 km范围内,异常项目计有水位、水温、水氡、水汞及气汞;以中期、短期异常为主,临震异常很少;源兆异常台站和台项的比例均高于场兆。这些流体源兆特征的认识,可为利用流体异常判断地震危险区提供一定依据。     

南黄海中古生代残留沉积地层的地震成像

文中展示了南黄海中古生代沉积地层的成像结果,显示南黄海隆起区存在较稳定的中古生代沉积地层残留区.南黄海中古生代残留沉积地层的成像问题一直是地震资料处理的难点,主要原因是以海底鸣震为主的层间多次波和与中古生界顶界面相关的长程多次波非常发育,致使有效反射波无法准确识别.本文利用平面波域层间多次波的可预测性,对地震数据平面波分解之后进行预测反褶积,较好地消除了层间多次波.利用速度差异分离长程多次波,在有效波速度无法确定的条件下,先从低速的、可以确认的多次波开始进行分离,逐步确认并分离多次波,同时逐步进行有效波的确认和成像速度的尝试,最终得到合适的成像速度场和多次波被充分分离的数据.成像结果对南黄海残留盆地研究有一定借鉴意义.     

新疆伊犁喀什河断裂带分段性研究

据两种关系,即1812年尼勒克8级地震产生的地表破裂与断裂破裂的对应关系和地震最高烈度与破裂延伸烈度区间的关系,同时考虑古地震研究成果和现代地震活动特征,对喀什河断裂带进行了破裂分段性研究,将喀什河断裂带以博尔博松为界分为东、西两段,东段长220 km以上,西段长290 km。研究表明,东段目前处于1812年尼勒克8级地震以后的地震活动相对平静期,在未来的时间里喀什河断裂带西段可能是大震活动的主要区段。     

三峡水库蓄水前后长江中下游流量频率分布特征及其对洪水造床作用的影响

三峡水库蓄水前后长江中下游流量特征变化及其对造床作用的影响一直受到学者的关注.采用枝城等6个水文站日均流量资料,分别统计了各站流量的经验频率分布,检验了8种概率密度函数的适用性,并讨论了三峡水库蓄水前后流量频率分布特征与造床流量的关系.研究表明:长江中下游干流洪中枯各级流量的频率分布具有分段特性,无法用皮尔逊Ⅲ型或对数...     

Heavy mineral composition and texture of the recently formed fluvial delta sediment of Lake Nasser/Nubia,Egypt and Sudan

Surficial sediment samples collected from the recently formed fluvial delta in Lake Nasser/Nubia (Egypt and Sudan) in conjunction with data on bottom current and depth soundings are examined to interpret hydraulic-sorting processes and transport/depositional patterns.The～500 km long northeastwardtrending lake,lies within Egypt and Sudan,is created as a result of the construction of the Aswan High Dam in 1964.The original grain-size distribution and heavy mineral compositions of these samples hel...     

Invisible face of COVID-19 pandemic on the freshwater environment: An impact assessment on the sediment quality of a cross boundary river basin in Turkey

In the current research,the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown period on sediment quality of the MericErgene River Basin was evaluated by determining the potentially toxic elements（PTEs） in sediment samples collected from 25 sampling points in the basin.Also some important ecological indicators including potential ecological risk index（PERI）,contamination factor（CF）,pollution load index（PLI）,biological risk index（BRI）,and geo-accumulation index(I_geo) and some important statistical indica...     

Copula models for frequency analysis what can be learned from a Bayesian perspective?

Large spring floods in the Québec region exhibit correlated peakflow, duration and volume. Consequently, traditional univariate hydrological frequency analyses must be complemented by multivariate probabilistic assessment to provide a meaningful design flood level as requested in hydrological engineering (based on return period evaluation of a single quantity of interest). In this paper we study 47 years of a peak/volume dataset for the Romaine River with a parametric copula model. The margins are modeled with a normal or gamma distribution and the dependence is depicted through a parametric family of copulas (Arch 12 or Arch 14). Parameter joint inference and model selection are performed under the Bayesian paradigm. This approach enlightens specific features of interest for hydrological engineering: (i) cross correlation between margin parameters are stronger than expected , (ii) marginal distributions cannot be forgotten in the model selection process and (iii) special attention must be addressed to model validation as far as extreme values are of concern.     

How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource systems?

The Canadian Rocky Mountain headwaters support the water resource systems of the Canadian Prairies. Significant variations in natural headwater contributions have been observed due to warming climate. Projecting future natural headwater flows under climate change effects, however, has large uncertainty. First, there are difficulties in climate modeling and downscaling in alpine regions. Second, streamflow modeling in mountainous areas is extremely challenging. There is therefore a need to understand the effects of uncertainty in the natural inflow regime, and in particular how this translates into uncertainty in representing the state and the outflow of water resource systems. Considering the Oldman River basin in Alberta, Canada, we synthesized different inflow regimes based on site/inter-site properties of the historical inflow regime. The water resources system was then conditioned on the synthesized inflow regimes to identify the mechanisms of error propagation from the headwater streamflows to the water allocations. The results show that the response of the water resource system to the uncertainty in the generated inflow regime depends on the system state, flow condition and the component of interest. Generally, the response of the reservoirs to the uncertainty in the estimated inflow regime is more significant in dry years, in particular during low flow conditions. The response at the system outlet is rather different, as the propagation of the headwater uncertainty is more significant during high flow conditions. Also, similar inflow estimates in terms of error and uncertainty may result in different error and uncertainty estimates in the simulated outflows; therefore, lower bias and uncertainty in estimating the regional inflow regime does not necessarily mean lower bias and uncertainty in simulating the streamflow at the outlet of the system. Our results provide improved understanding of uncertainty propagation through complex water resource systems, but also portray the need for better climate and hydrological modeling in the Rocky Mountains for improved water management in the Canadian Prairies, particularly in the face of uncertain climate futures. This will be crucial if the natural headwater inflows decline and/or the system faces drought conditions.     

Relocation of the Yellow River as revealed by sedimentary isotopic and elemental signals in the East China Sea

The Yellow River (YR) supplies a large amount of nutrients and fresh water to the northern Chinese marginal seas, and greatly influences the ecosystem and current patterns. The relocation of the YR outlet from the southern Yellow Sea (YS) to the Bohai Sea in 1855 was demonstrated using northern East China Sea (ECS) sediment characteristics. Both isotopic (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) signals and C/N ratios in the organic matter (OM) indicate that prior to 1750, the predominant source of OM to the sediments was terrestrial. The terrestrial influences continuously weakened until 1855, when the YR estuary moved; after 1855, the OM was characterized by oceanic sources. Major elements (Al, Ti, Fe, Mn) and trace elements (Ni, Cr, Cu, Pb) had a much closer association with Malan loess prior to 1855, as >90% of the YR sediment was loess-derived. These results reveal that the relocation of the YR induced significant changes in the current patterns of the northern China Seas in the last 250 years; however, more studies are needed to further examine these linkages.