中国2005-2016年地质灾害的时空变化及影响因素分析

基于中国地质环境监测院发布的《全国地质灾害通报》,本文从时空分布及影响因素2个方面,对2005-2016年的地质灾害发生类型变化、空间分布、成因、损失和避让情况进行了统计分析。分析结果表明：① 滑坡与崩塌是主要的地质灾害类型,分别占地质灾害总数的70%与10%左右,地质灾害总数、滑坡与崩塌均呈明显减少趋势;② 在空间分布上,地质灾害主要分布在湖南省和四川省,它们也是直接经济损失最大省份,四川省同时为死亡失踪人数最多的省份;③ 自然因素造成的地质灾害从96.6%降低到92.0%,人为因素造成的地质灾害则呈整体增加趋势,通过回归方程,每年平均增加量约为0.5%;④ 地质灾害造成的死亡、失踪和受伤的总人数逐渐递减,每年约减少75人左右;特大型地质灾害占总数的0.5%,却造成人员伤亡总数的25.7%和直接经济损失总量的47.7%;⑤ 避免的地质灾害与经济损失占地质灾害总数与直接经济损失总量的百分比,分别从2005年的2.8%与9.3%提高到2016年的6.9%与22.4%。通过回归方程,避免地质灾害数目与避免经济损失的百分比每年增长为0.7%与1.5%左右。通过对中国地质灾害的长时间动态监测结果进行分析,说明中国的防灾减灾工作取得了明显进展。     

枣庄市国土资源局山亭分局扎实开展民主评议政风行风工作

民主评议政风行风是促进单位部门转变职能、提高效率、优化服务的重要举措。山亭国土资源分局以民主评议政风行风为契机,通过"五个结合",实现了服务质量和工作效率的"三个转变",得到了社会各界的好评。     

经验模态分解法在地下水资料处理中的应用

利用经验模态分解法（EMD）对地震地下流体观测资料中典型干扰信号的处理及趋势性变化的提取,结果表明,经验模态分解方法能有效地对信号进行分解,是一种无需预设带宽的自适应高通滤波方法,适用于地下流体观测资料的分析处理     

利用空间测地技术结果估计地球平均下地幔粘性(英)

基于IEC－4G冰期后地壳反弹模型,和地球上Laurentia,Fennoscandia,Antarctica,andGreenland四大冰盖最近21000年以来的冰融参数,计算了对地球最大主转动惯量的影响△I33,并进而由现代空间测地技术观测资料分析得到的地球自转非潮汐加速项为约束,估计了地球平均下地幔（670km以下）粘性vLM为（0．9～2．5）·1022Pas,这个结果表明了vLM应具有1022Pas量级．     

可用于带耗散力卫星轨道长间隔积分的数值积分方法

本文分析了对称方法不适合带耗散力的卫星轨道长间隔积分的缺陷和本质原因,并针对这个问题,采用文所介绍的方法,构造并推荐了一组积分公式。     

Climate changes detected through the world's longest sea level series

The sea level series of Stockholm in the Baltic Sea, commencing already in 1774, is analysed in various ways together with contemporary climate data, in order to investigate long-term sea level changes and their relations to climate changes.First, a study of the eustatic rise of sea level, based on annual mean sea levels, is peformed, and compared with other sea level and climate studies. It is concluded that the general climatic rise of sea level has increased significantly (99.9%) from about 0.0 mm/year during the end of the Little Ice Age, to about 1.0 mm/year during the past century, characterized by melting of glaciers. Such sea level changes due to northern hemisphere climate variations since 800 A.D. have (hitherto) probably always kept within −1.5 and +1.5 mm/year, with an average fairly close to zero.Second, an investigation of the sea level variability, also based on annual mean sea levels, is performed together with temperature and wind variabilities. It is found that the interannual sea level variability of the Baltic Sea has decreased significantly (98%) from the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s; after that it has increased significantly (95%) again. Precisely the same is found to apply to winter climate or, more specifically, to the interannual winter temperature variability and the interannual winter wind variability. The common origin of all these long-term changes turn out to be two consecutive winter wind processes over the North and Baltic Seas, especially the Baltic entrance. From the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s, there has been a rapidly decreasing number of dominating winter winds from northeast, and after that there has been an increasing number of dominating winter winds from southwest. This may indicate corresponding long-term changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation.Third, using monthly mean sea levels together with corresponding wind data, seasonal variations are investigated. The seasonal sea level variation in the Baltic Sea has increased significantly (99%) since the early 1800s, together with a shift of the maximum from late summer to early winter. It is found that the main origin is a secular change of the winter wind conditions over the Baltic entrance, with increasing southwesterly winds in early winter. This might also be related to a long-term change in the North Atlantic Oscillation.     

Long term variations in solar flare activity

A statistical analysis of the contemporary (1954-1975) solar flare particle events has been made for the parametersF (integrated, proton fluence in cm^-2 in an event with kinetic energy above 10 MeV) andR ₀ (the characteristic rigidity). These data are compared with the long-term averaged values determined from stable- and radio-nuclide measurements of lunar samples. The analysis shows that the ancient solar flare proton spectrum was harder (higher R₀ values) compared to that observed in contemporary flares. A similar analysis can not be made for the mean long-term averaged flux (ˉJ, cm^-2 S^-1), since the contemporary averages suffer from an uncertainty due to the statistics of a single event. However, the average flux estimates for time durations 〈T〉 exceeding 10³ yr, are free from such uncertainties. The long-term averaged ˉJ values obtained over different time scales (10⁴ - 10⁶ yr) suggest a possible periodic variation in solar flare activity, with enhanced flux level during the last 10⁵ yr. The available data rule out the occurrence of giant flares, with proton fluence exceeding 10¹⁵ cm^-2 during the last million years.     

用前期海温预报四川夏季气温的EOF迭代方案

应用ＥＯＦ（经验正交函数）迭代方案，考虑多时次历史资料，在全球海区海温与四川盆地气温非同步联系的基础上，以海温为预报因子进行了夏季气温的长期预报。结果表明：西太平洋高温区等关键海区海温的异常对未来四川盆地夏季气温变化有重要影响，由此建立的引入多时次海温的ＥＯＦ迭代长期温度预报方法，具有较强的预报能力     

球体位错理论计算程序的总体设计与具体实现

本文详细介绍了球体位错理论计算程序的总体设计思想、 各类配套文件的具体内涵以及各类输出文件的物理含义, 同时介绍了程序的使用方法和注意事项, 为读者独立使用该程序提供参考。 球体位错理论计算程序主要由三部分组成: ① 位错格林函数计算程序, 基于具体的球对称地球模型提供离散的二维格林函数数值框架; ② 积分计算程序, 对离散的格林函数数值框架进行双二次样条插值运算, 并对四类独立位错源对应的格林函数进行适当组合, 从而计算出任意位置任意类型震源在地表产生的同震变形(含位移、 应变、 重力变化和大地水准面变化); ③ 辅助文件, 用于提供发震断层模型和计算点位信息。 一般情况下, 读者不需要理解位错格林函数计算程序和积分计算程序, 只需要对辅助文件提供的信息进行针对性改动, 就可以计算目标地震在目标观测站引起的同震变形。     

The Sunda Shelf—A Submerged Amazon Basin?

A crucial and debatable issue in paleoclimatology is the change of terrestrial vegetation and the role of its carbon storage in glacial cycles. In the modern world, the Amazon Basin hosts the largest tropical rainforest and plays a major role of carbon sink, but during the glacial times another large tropical rainforest must have formed in the then emerged Sunda Shelf, SE Asia, and significantly changed the global carbon cycling. Accordingly, ocean drilling expeditions to the Sunda Shelf are being proposed in order to investigate the sea level changes, evolution of river network, vegetation and carbon storage, as well as biogeography of the tropical region over the last millions of years.