1961-2010年辽宁省高温日数和高温热浪特征分析

利用1961-2010年辽宁省52个气象站日最高气温资料,分析辽宁地区高温日数及热浪的分布特征和变化趋势,结果表明：辽宁省区域年平均高温日数为7.72 d/ a。辽宁高温日数呈东少西多的空间分布,沿海地区较少甚至部分地区无高温情况出现。高温日出现最多的朝阳站,为26.48 d/ a。从20世纪60年代开始,高温日数呈缓慢增加趋势,其中2000年为有气象记录以来高温日最多的年份。热浪也呈东少西多的分布特征,热浪最多的朝阳站发生频次为2.90次/ a。辽宁省以持续3-5 d的轻度热浪为主,占86.27 %,中度热浪占12.58 %,超过10 d的重度热浪占1.14 %,仅有喀左、北票和羊山地区发生过持续10 d以上的重度热浪。     

江苏南部汛期降水日变化特征分析

利用江苏南部20个气象观测站2008—2012年汛期(5—10月)逐小时降水资料,应用降水频率来分析了江苏南部地区降水日变化基本特征和区域差异。研究表明:降水日变化特征地域性差异较强,西部站、东部站和东北沿海站都存在一定的特征差异。东部站降水量的最大值主要出现在下午和傍晚;西部站降水量主峰值出现在下午,并且在清晨和夜间还有两个次峰值;东北沿海站呈现出午前、午后的双峰值形式。2008—2011年降水量下午高值区有先减弱后增强并提前的趋势,而上午的高值区有总体减弱并推迟的特征。2011年后有明显减弱的趋势。江苏南部总体来说,短时强降水(大于20和25 mm/h)在16—19时出现主峰值,07—09时也有相对较小的次峰值。     

Assessment of Historical Climate Trends of Surface Air Temperature in CMIP5 Models

This study assesses the historical climate trends of surface air temperature（SAT）, their spatial distributions, and the hindcast skills for SAT during 1901– 2000 from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5） models. For the global averaged SAT, most of the models（17/24） effectively captured the increasing trends（0.64°C/century for the ensemble mean） as the observed values（- 0.6°C/century） during the period of 1901–2000, particularly during a rapid warming period of 1970–2000 with the small model spread. In addition, most of the models（22/24） showed high hindcast skills（the correlation coefficient, R 〉 0.8）. For the spatial pattern of SAT, the models better simulated the relatively larger warming at the middle-to-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere and the greater warming on the land than that in the ocean between 40°S and 40°N. The simulations underestimated the warming along some ocean boundaries but overestimated warming in the Arctic Ocean. Most of the coupled models were able to reproduce the large-scale features of SAT trends in most regions excluding Antarctica, some parts of the Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic Ocean near Greenland, the southwestern Indian Ocean, and the Arctic Ocean. The outgoing longwave radiation（OLR） and incoming shortwave radiation（ISR） at the top of the atmosphere（TOA） and the downward longwave（LW） radiation and sensible heat flux at the surface had positive contributions to the increasing trends in most of the models.     

基于TIGGE资料的北半球地面气温预报的统计降尺度研究

基于TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble,全球交互式大集合)资料中欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather,ECMWF)、日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)、美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)和英国气象局(United Kingdom Met Office,UKMO)4个中心的北半球地面2 m气温集合平均预报资料,利用插值技术与回归分析,并引入了消除偏差集合平均(bias-removed ensemble mean,BREM)和多模式超级集合(superensemble,SUP)方法进行统计降尺度预报研究。结果表明,在2007年夏季3个月中,4个单中心的降尺度预报明显地改善了预报效果。引入SUP和BREM两种集成预报方法后,预报误差得到进一步减小。对比综合表现最好的单中心ECMWF的预报,1~7 d的降尺度预报误差改进率均达20%以上。研究还发现,引入SUP方法的降尺度预报效果优于引入BREM方法的降尺度预报,利用双线性插值方法在上述两方案中的预报效果优于其他3种插值方法。     

资料均一化对沈阳站气温趋势和城市化偏差分析的影响

利用国家气象信息中心2013年发布的逐日均一化气温资料,对沈阳站资料均一化处理前后平均气温和极端气温指数序列的线性趋势及其城市化影响偏差进行了比较评价。结果表明:1)资料均一化处理对日最高气温及其衍生的极端气温指数序列趋势估计的影响较弱,但对日最低气温及其衍生的极端气温指数序列趋势估计具有显著影响。2)经资料均一化处理后,平均气温序列中的城市化影响偏差有所增大,平均最低气温序列中的城市化影响偏差增大尤其明显;与冷事件有关的极端气温指数序列的城市化影响偏差数值有所减小,与暖事件有关的极端气温指数序列的城市化影响偏差数值有所增加。3)资料均一化处理有效纠正了因迁站等原因造成的地面气温观测记录中的非均一性,但却在很大程度上还原了城市站地面气温观测记录中的城市化影响偏差。     

基于阈值区间的海洋锋面提取模型

A model （Bayesian oceanic front detection, BOFD） of sea surface temperature （SST） front detection in satel- lite-derived SST images based on a threshold interval is presented, to be used in different applications such as climatic and environmental studies or fisheries. The model first computes the SST gradient by using a Sobel algorithm template. On the basis of the gradient value, the threshold interval is determined by a gradi- ent cumulative histogram. According to this threshold interval, front candidates can be acquired and prior probability and likelihood can be calculated. Whether or not the candidates are front points can be deter- mined by using the Bayesian decision theory. The model is evaluated on the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer images of part of the Kuroshio front region. Results are compared with those obtained by using several SST front detection methods proposed in the literature. This comparison shows that the BOFD not only suppresses noise and small-scale fronts, but also retains continuous fronts.     

温度和光径对微绿球藻生长及营养成分含量的影响

研究了温度和光生物反应器的光径对微绿球藻(Nannochloropsis oculata Hibberd)生长及细胞内几种营养成分含量的影响。结果表明,温度对微绿球藻的生长有显著影响(P0.05),对几种营养成分的含量有极显著影响(P0.01),在28℃的培养条件下,细胞生长速度最快,此时蛋白质含量最高,为5.66%,多糖含量最低,仅为1.47%,但最大生物产量却是在30℃的条件下获得,总脂与叶绿素a的含量随温度的升高而降低,类胡萝卜素含量随温度升高而增大。光生物反应器的光径对微绿球藻的生长和总脂、可溶性蛋白、色素的含量有极显著影响(P0.01),对多糖含量有显著影响(P0.05),比生长速率、最高细胞密度和单位体积产量均随光径的增大而减小,单位面积产量随光径的增大而增大;总脂、可溶性蛋白和多糖的含量随光径的增大而降低,叶绿素和类胡萝卜素含量随光径增大而增大,类胡萝卜素含量的增大趋势比叶绿素更明显。     

黄海冷水团海域微型异养鞭毛虫与细菌的弱耦合关系

A study was carried out to investigate the grazing pressure of heterotrophic nanoflagellates(HNF) on bacteria assemblages in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(YSCWM) area in October, 2006. The results show that the HNF abundance ranges from 303 to 1 388 mL-1, with a mean of 884 mL-1. The HNF biomass is equivalent to 10.6%–115.6% of that of the bacteria. The maximum abundance of the HNF generally occurred in the upper 30 m water layer, with a vertical distribution pattern of surface layer abundance greater than middle layer abundance, then bottom layer abundance. The hydrological data show that the YSCWM is located in the northeastern part of the study area, typically 40 m beneath the surface. A weak correlation is found between the abundances of HNF and bacteria in both the YSCWM and its above water layer. One-way ANOVA analysis reveals that the abundance of HNF and bacteria differs between inside the YSCWM and in the above water mass. The ingestion rates of the HNF on bacteria was 8.02±3.43 h-1 in average. The grazing rate only represented 22.75%±6.91% of bacterial biomass or 6.55%+4.24% of bacterial production, implying that the HNF grazing was not the major factor contributing to the bacterial loss in the YSCWM areas.     

2013年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响

本文对2013年海洋和大气环流异常特征进行分析,讨论这些异常特征对中国气温和降水的主要影响。结果表明：2012/2013年冬季,北极涛动持续维持负位相,500 hPa位势高度场上,欧亚大陆中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”的环流形势,乌拉尔山的高压脊持续偏强,而东亚槽也异常偏强,导致全国平均气温较常年同期偏低。季内,西伯利亚高压强度变化显著,与之相对应,我国气温季内阶段性变化大,前冬冷、后冬暖。进一步研究表明,前秋北极海冰的大幅偏少是造成东亚冬季风偏强的重要原因。2013年冬季至夏季,赤道中东太平洋海温异常偏低而海洋性大陆至西太平洋海温异常偏高,受此影响,夏季西太平洋副热带高压位置明显偏北,导致我国北方夏季多雨。与此同时,受西太平洋副热带高压下沉气流的控制,我国南方大部高温持续。2013年南海夏季风爆发偏早两候,结束偏晚4候,强度偏弱。