Change of Gas Hydrate Reservoir and Its Effect on the Environment in Xisha Trough since the Last Glacial Maximum

In this article, Milkov and Sassen’s model is selected to calculate the thickness of the gas hydrate stable zone (GHSZ) and the amount of gas hydrate in the Xisha (西沙) Trough at present and at the last glacial maximum (LGM), respectively, and the effects of the changes in the bottom water temperature and the sea level on these were also discussed. The average thickness of the GHSZ in Xisha Trough is estimated to be 287 m and 299 m based on the relationship between the GHSZ thickness and the water depth established in this study at present and at LGM, respectively. Then, by assuming that the distributed area of gas hydrates is 8 000 km2 and that the gas hydrate saturation is 1.2% of the sediment volume, the amounts of gas hydrate are estimated to be ~2.76×1010 m3 and ~2.87×1010 m3, and the volumes of hydrate-bound gases are ~4.52×1012 m3 and ~4.71×1012 m3 at present and at LGM, re- spectively. The above results show that the thickness of GHSZ decreases with the bottom water tem- perature increase and increases with the sea level increase, wherein the effect of the former is larger than that of the latter, that the average thickness of GHSZ in Xisha Trough had been reduced by ~12 m, and that 1.9×1011 m3 of methane is released from approximately 1.1×109 m3 of gas hydrate since LGM. The released methane should have greatly affected the environment.     

High Precision Time Domain Forward Modeling for Crosshole Electromagnetic Tomography

To improve the resolution of crosshole electromagnetic tomography, high precision of forward modeling is necessary. A pseudo-spectral time domain (PSTD) forward modeling was used to simulate electromagnetic wave propagation between two boreholes. The PSTD algorithm is based on the finite difference time domain (FDTD) method and uses the fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithm for spatial derivatives in Maxwell's equations. Besides having the strongpoint of the FDTD method, the calculation precision of the PSTD algorithm is higher than that of the FDTD method under the same calculation condition. The forward modeling using the PSTD method will play an important role in enhancing the resolution of crosshole electromagnetic tomography.     

Numerical analysis for random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions

The stochastic finite element equations for random temperature are obtained using the first-order per-turbation technique taking into account the random thermal properties and boundary condition, based on heat transfer variational principle. The local average method for 2-D is used to discretize random fields. Then, the random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions are investigated on condi-tion that the thermal properties and boundary condition are taken as random fields, respectively, by using the program, which is written by the methods. The expected value of temperature field and the standard deviation of the temperature field of embankment in cold regions are obtained and analyzed.     

2005年10月8日巴基斯坦7.8级地震热红外异常

收集了2005年巴基斯坦7.8级地震区Noaa17/AVHRR的2004-2005年的热红外遥感资料,并进行地表温度反演,得到了以震中为中心7°×7°范围的地表温度值。经热红外图像解译与构造关系对比分析,表明热红外解译图像与构造分布具有一致性。震源区地表温度时间序列显示:震前大约3个月内震源区存在明显的热红外异常。     

Analysis and modeling of the seasonal South China Sea temperature cycle using remote sensing

The present paper describes the analysis and modeling of the South China Sea (SCS) temperature cycle on a seasonal scale. It investigates the possibility to model this cycle in a consistent way while not taking into account tidal forcing and associated tidal mixing and exchange. This is motivated by the possibility to significantly increase the model’s computational efficiency when neglecting tides. The goal is to develop a flexible and efficient tool for seasonal scenario analysis and to generate transport boundary forcing for local models. Given the significant spatial extent of the SCS basin and the focus on seasonal time scales, synoptic remote sensing is an ideal tool in this analysis. Remote sensing is used to assess the seasonal temperature cycle to identify the relevant driving forces and is a valuable source of input data for modeling. Model simulations are performed using a three-dimensional baroclinic-reduced depth model, driven by monthly mean sea surface anomaly boundary forcing, monthly mean lateral temperature, and salinity forcing obtained from the World Ocean Atlas 2001 climatology, six hourly meteorological forcing from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 dataset, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) data. A sensitivity analysis of model forcing and coefficients is performed. The model results are quantitatively assessed against climatological temperature profiles using a goodness-of-fit norm. In the deep regions, the model results are in good agreement with this validation data. In the shallow regions, discrepancies are found. To improve the agreement there, we apply a SST nudging method at the free water surface. This considerably improves the model’s vertical temperature representation in the shallow regions. Based on the model validation against climatological in situ and SST data, we conclude that the seasonal temperature cycle for the deep SCS basin can be represented to a good degree. For shallow regions, the absence of tidal mixing and exchange has a clear impact on the model’s temperature representation. This effect on the large-scale temperature cycle can be compensated to a good degree by SST nudging for diagnostic applications.     

《翁同龢日记》中的冷暖感知记录及其对气候冷暖变化的指示意义

依据清代《翁同龢日记》（以下简称《日记》）中逐日的冷暖感知记录和同时期的器测月均温资料，采用相关分析和线性回归分析等统计方法，以月为基本统计单元，对《日记》中冷暖感知记录反演气候变化的能力进行了分析。结果说明，《日记》中的冷暖感知记录可以用于气候变化研究，但是最佳代用指标因气候变化的时间尺度和季节而异。总体而言，极热、偏热、偏凉、极冷日数对年内月到季时间尺度气候变化的代表性较好，其中尤以偏凉和极冷日数最佳。 对于年际尺度上的气候波动，从季节对比来看，冷暖感知日数反演夏季（6-8月份）月均温的能力最差；从冷暖感知类型对比来看，极冷日数是多个月份月均温的最佳代用指标，1、3、5、9和12月份的最佳代用指标均是极冷日数。并且，还可以依据极冷日数的多寡识别极端冷、极端热年。由此可见，古代私人日记中的冷暖感知记录可以用于反演历史时期气候的冷暖变化。     

尹犁盆地南缘中下侏罗统第Ⅴ、Ⅶ旋叵铀成矿差异因素分析

伊犁盆地是我国砂岩型铀矿的主要产地之一，截止目前已提交了3个可地浸砂岩型铀矿．矿体主要赋存在中下侏罗统水西沟群（J1-2sh）的第Ⅰ-Ⅱ旋回、Ⅴ旋回及Ⅶ旋回等3个旋回的砂岩中，提交了可供开采的铀资源量万余吨,就目前已探明或发现的铀矿床（点）赋矿层位来看，第Ⅰ-Ⅱ旋回铀矿体仅分布在伊犁盆地南缘西部地区，而第Ⅴ、Ⅶ两旋回的铀矿床（点）在盆地南缘中西段均有分布．从地质构造及地球化学环境等方面来看，第Ⅴ、Ⅶ两旋回铀成矿条件较为相似。但二者的铀矿床无论从规模、还是空间展布等方面都存在很大的差异性．基于此，本文从铀源、岩性岩相、地质构造、地球化学环境、水文地质条件及层间氧化带等方面对铀成矿差异因素加以对比分析和讨论。     

地震波多次散射波场的高阶谱统计分析

设计了一个特殊且相对规则的散射界面模型,并利用声波动方程高阶有限差分的方法对其进行正演。通过不断改变模型中散射体的横向尺度来控制多次散射波场的强度和特征,然后结合高阶谱统计分析的方法对所得的多次散射波进行分析,进而可以得到多次散射波频率随散射体横向尺度而变化的一些规律。     

石河子夏季高温过程的环流特征分析

应用1994—2003年NCEP逐日再分析资料,对石河子地区10a夏季出现的10次持续性高温天气过程进行了综合分析,总结了石河子地区高温天气的主要环流及相关物理量的特征,提出了石河子地区夏季高温天气的预报模型。