灾害天气对若尔盖旅游安全影响的时间特征分析

利用若尔盖1971-2000年的大风、雷暴、冰雹、积雪、雾及飑的逐年各月气象资料,用现代统计方法,分别逐类、逐月、逐年代统计若尔盖地区旅游气象灾害出现频次、时间变化特征,并对其变化特征及主要旅游气象灾害发生规律进行气候综合分析,结合旅游安全社会经验,统计出若尔盖气象灾害发生月份集中在4-8月,主要是春、夏两个季节。而较少月份集中在8-2月,为秋、冬两季。若尔盖地区适宜旅游期月份为5、6、7、8、9月,非常适宜旅游区月份为6、7、8月,疗养期月份为7月。而该时段为灾害频发期,因此应特别注意对灾害天气的预防和应对。为当地旅游管理部门提供参考,为旅游投资与实施建设提供气象依据,为旅游者选择旅游季节及评估旅游安全提供帮助。     

2000年汛期河南持续暴雨的天气形势和水汽分析

通过对2000年6月23日－7月15日河南省出现的3次连续3天以上的暴雨，大暴雨过程的降水特征－背景形势，影响系统和水汽条件等方面的分析，揭示了有利于连续性暴雨产生的水汽条件和两种环流背景场。     

粤北一次降雹过程的成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、以及雷达观测资料对发生在粤北地区的一次降雹过程进行分析,结果发现:该次降雹过程是在高低空急流、切变线、地面辐合线、弱冷空气的共同作用下产生的;雷达基本反射率产品、VIL产品以及VWP产品对降雹云具有较好的识别作用。     

Vertical characteristics revealed by biweekly and synoptic variability of upper sea temperature in the northern South China Sea

On the basis of the analysis of the sea temperature data that are observed from the three automatic temperature line acquisition sysem mooring buoys deployed in the central South China Sea (SCS) during South China Sea monsoon experiment, vertical features of biweekly and synoptic variability are discussed. There are five vertical modes, that is, subsurface temperature variability is in phase with,out of phase with, leads to, lags the surface temperature variability, and at depths within the subsurface layer the upper and lower temperature variations are out of phase. The formation of these vertical modes is related to the property of low-level atmospheric forcing and to the background in atmosphere and ocean. Wind stress curl is the main driving factor in forming Modes 1 and 3, and wind stresses in forming Modes 2 and 4.     

春季天气变率对华北沙尘暴频次的影响

利用欧洲中期数值天气预报中心再分析资料及地面台站观测资料,分析华北春季沙尘暴日数与500 hPa月平均环流及与近地面环流天气变率长期变化的关系,分析时段为1962~2000年。研究发现华北地区春季沙尘暴频次与东亚地区中高纬度500 hPa高度场有显著的负相关,相关中心区在蒙古国及西伯利亚一带,这可能说明高空环流场在这种形势下易于造成高纬度冷空气南下,因此使得华北沙尘暴频次增加。天气过程是形成沙尘暴的直接原因,东亚地区天气变率存在明显的年际和长期变化,研究发现天气变率与沙尘暴频次之间有非常显著的关系：当天气尺度变率增大 (减少) 时,沙尘暴频次也增加 (减少)。其中具体分析了850 hPa低压和地面冷高压活动与沙尘暴的关系,发现东北低压及自蒙古和西伯利亚南下的冷空气活动都对华北沙尘暴频次有明显的影响。近40年来东亚天气变率有显著的减弱趋势,这也在很大程度上解释了沙尘暴频数的显著减少。另外,北极涛动对东亚天气变率和华北沙尘暴频次的年际变化也有一定的影响,北极涛动强的年份华北沙尘暴次数偏少。     

蛇类人工养殖与气象条件关系的初步研究

根据蛇场养殖经验和实验 ,得到人工养蛇的不同生育阶段的温、湿度指标 ,为进一步提高养蛇的经济效益 ,提供一些技术参数     

The Kwinana Coastal Fumigation Study: III – Meteorological and Turbulence Modelling on Selected Days

The Kwinana Coastal Fumigation Study took place inearly 1995 at Kwinana near Perth in Western Australia.The study involved surface and elevated meteorologicaland plume fumigation measurements in sea-breeze flowsnear the coast, and has yielded a comprehensive dataset that is suitable for assessing meteorological andplume dispersion models. In this paper, wesimulate the meteorology and turbulence on four casestudy days, and compare model results with thedetailed surface and aircraft measurements takenduring the study. These days had surface synopticwinds ranging from southerly to northeasterly, witheither stable or near-neutral temperature profilesover the sea.The model used was based on that developed by Hurley(Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 83, 43–73, 1997), but extended here to allow domain nesting,optional non-hydrostatic simulations, and a vegetativecanopy at the surface. The model was forced bystandard weather service synoptic data, and thesimulations have captured the essential features ofthe strong sea-breeze circulation observed on thesedays. The boundary-layer structure over the sea waspredicted to be near-neutral or stable in agreementwith the observations on the particular day. The windspeed and direction in the sea-breeze flow weregenerally predicted well, although the predictedmaximum inflow speed over the land was a little toohigh. The potential temperature was generallyover-predicted, but temperature gradients agreed well.Predicted turbulence levels in the bottom-half of thethermal internal boundary layer compared well to theobservations, but under-estimated the observations inthe in the upper half of this layer. Near-surfacemeasurements of meteorological variables werepredicted well over the entire diurnal cycle, althoughthe predicted sea-breeze onset was generally tooearly. A quantitative model evaluation for thenear-surface sites showed the model performance to bebetter than that from other studies, with Index ofAgreement (IOA) values of 0.8 (wind speed) and 0.96(temperature), compared with values of 0.5–0.6 (windspeed) and 0.33 (temperature) obtained from otherstudies.The availability of new higher resolution synopticanalyses should obviate the lack of spatial andtemporal resolution in synoptic inputs. Theincorporation of these higher resolution synopticinputs and new parameterisation schemes should improvefuture model performance.     

Total ozone decrease in the Arctic after REP events

Eight periods of relativistic electron precipitation (REP) with electron energies of more than 300 keV are identified from VLF data (10/14 kHz) monitored along the Aldra (Norway) / Apatity (Kola peninsula) radio trace. In these cases, anomalous ionization below 55/50 km occurred without disturbing the higher layers of the ionosphere. The daily total ozone values in Murmansk for six days before and six days after the REP events are compared. In seven of eight events a decrease in the total ozone of about 20 DU is observed. In one event of 25 March, 1986, the mean total ozone value for six days before the REP is bigger han that for six days after, but this a case of an extremely high ozone increase (144 DU during the six days). However, on days 3 and 4 there was a minimum of about 47 DU with regard to REP days, so this case also confirms the concept of the ozone decrease after REP. The difference between mean ozone values for periods six days before and six days after the REPs was found also for 23 points in Arctic on TOMS data. The difference was negative only in Murmansk longitudinal sector. Along the meridian of the trace it was negative at high latitudes in both hemispheres and was near zero at low latitudes.     

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone, calculated with a Lagrangian method

A Lagrangian technique is developed and applied to calculate stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone. This exchange is computed from the potential vorticity or PV along trajectories, calculated from ECMWF circulation data. Special emphasis is put on the statistical significance of the results. The computed field of the cross-tropopause flux is dominated by elongated patterns of statistically significant large downward and small upward fluxes. The downward fluxes mainly occur in the lower part of the considered tropopause folds. The upward fluxes are found near the entrance of the folds, in the tropopause ridges. The ratio between the area averaged downward and upward cross-tropopause fluxes increases with increasing strength of the cyclone. Since the largest fluxes are shown to occur in the regions with the largest wind shear, where PV-mixing is thought to cause large cross-tropopause fluxes, the results are expected to be reliable, at least in a qualitative sense. The position of a tropopause fold along the northwest coast of Africa is confirmed by total ozone observations. The results indicate that the applied Lagrangian technique is an appropriate tool for diagnosing stratosphere-troposphere exchange.     

一次辽宁秋季暴雨天气的诊断分析

使用1.0°×1.0°NCEP再分析资料,对2006年10月21—22日深秋暴雨在天气形势分析的基础上,进行物理量诊断。结果表明:在有利的环境背景形势下,高位涡从对流层高层向低层伸展并形成湿位涡柱,引起气旋性环流与低涡环流叠加。对流层低层的湿斜压性增强,引起低层的锋区加强及垂直涡度发展,高空入侵干冷空气锲入底层,低层暖湿空气强迫抬升,使地面发展为气旋;高低空急流耦合产生上升气流,同时较强的补偿下沉运动激发上升运动加强,使次级环流加强,触发不稳定能量的释放;低空急流和超低空急流向辽宁输送暖湿空气及能量,对流层中低层形成湿柱并积聚高不稳定能量;中尺度气旋、高低空急流、湿位涡柱、次级环流上升支、地面高水汽含量湿区、高假相当位温出现的时间、强度、位置和结构决定了暴雨的时间和落区。