江淮地区一次强飑线系统结构特征的数值模拟研究

利用NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°逐6 h再分析资料、WRF中尺度预报模式,对2014年7月30 31日发生在江淮地区的一次强飑线天气过程进行天气学分析和数值模拟研究。结果表明,飑线发生前大气低层水汽条件良好,中层阶梯槽引导高层干冷空气向下入侵后叠加在低层暖湿气流之上,使飑线发生区域不稳定能量累积,低空切变线促使不稳定能量释放,是此次飑线过程的主要触发机制。在分析飑线成熟阶段宏观特征及微物理特征的基础上,归纳总结了此次飑线在成熟阶段的内部结构模型。飑线系统处于成熟阶段时,在大气低层强回波核附近存在"冷池",这主要是降水粒子在下落过程中蒸发冷却形成的。降水粒子下落过程中拖曳周围空气形成下沉气流,下沉气流到达地面后形成的辐散气流是地面大风形成的关键。     

江苏省城市专业气象服务系统

本文系统介绍了城市专业气象服务系统的设计思路、流程、功能特征和采用的Internet／Intranet（WWW）技术、Asp语言动态页面设计、自动化语音合成等技术,实现了Novell网、NT、9210网（气象卫星综合应用业务系统）、地面气象专线等联结采集实时气象信息和预报信息。系统具有应用、推广价值。     

洪水风险预测业务系统

介绍了在地图信息可化工具Ｍａｐｉｎｆｏ数据库和超文本库的支持下,通过Ｗｉｎｄｏｗｓ的ＯＬＥ自动化技术建成的洪水风险预测业务系统。它以直以形象的电子地图针气象、洪水、水文以及投保户保险信息,包括历史洪以淹实况机地结合起来;并通过与历史洪水受淹数据库、气象－洪水数据库等关联作出洪水风险预测,为有关部门业务 指导决策提供依据。     

“六淫”致病的科学性及定量标准探讨

《黄帝内经》将气象学中的风、寒、暑、湿、燥、火（热）6种气象现象的太过、不及或非时之候而影响人体病变的发生,又将人体疾病症候状况分成上述6种类似气象现象的类型统称“六淫”。前者为外感疾病病因分类,后者为症候分类。于是,“六淫”就 有了双重含义。对“六淫”的科学含义及其定量标准进行了探讨。     

Two-dimensional simulations of katabatic layers observed during the GIMEX experiment

The hydrostatic model SALSA is used to simulate a particular event observed during the Greenland Ice Margin EXperiment “GIMEX” (on July 12th, 1991). The time evolution of the large-scale flow was incorporated in the model through time dependent boundary conditions which were updated using the closest upwind sounding. A turbulent scheme for the stable boundary layer and an appropriate parametrization of the surface fluxes implemented in the same model, are used for this study. The simulation results are discussed and compared to the available observations. The computed turbulent fluxes are correctly estimated. The model predicts a mixing zone of about 1500 m high which is in good agreement with tundra site observations. Over the ice cap, the katabatic layer is correctly simulated by the model. Its height of 80–300 m is well estimated. The comparison between the simulation and observations taken at ice cap sites is reasonably valid. The ablation computed along the ice cap corresponds well to the values reconstructed of observations at sites 4 and 9. Finally, a sensibility study to a specified westward geostrophic wind (2 ms⁻¹) shows that the consideration of this latter improves the simulated tundra wind evolution.     

基于集合卡尔曼变换的区域集合预报初步研究

为了深入研究集合卡尔曼变换(Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter,ETKF)初值扰动方法,提高集合预报质量,从全球大集合预报资料中提取初始扰动场,建立区域模式的ETKF初值扰动方案,对2008年7月22日发生在中国东部的一次暴雨过程进行集合预报试验,并分析ETKF方案构造的扰动场特征和集合预报效果。结果表明,由ETKF初始扰动方案产生的扰动场大小与分布合理,能够反映观测站点的空间分布,能够保持所有正交、不相关方向的误差方差。集合预报降水落区相对控制预报有所改善,集合平均小雨和中雨TS评分和BS评分总体优于控制预报。24h集合预报的Talagrand分布优于36h预报。试验结果揭示了ETKF初值扰动方案的基本性质及利用ETKF方法进行区域集合预报的可行性。     

Attributes and uncertainty of dissolved zinc data from a mined catchment

This study evaluated the attributes and uncertainty of non‐point source pollution data derived from synoptic surveys in a catchment affected by inactive metal mines in order to help to identify and select appropriate methods for data analysis/reporting and information use. Dissolved zinc data from the Upper Animas River Basin, Colorado, USA, were the focus of the study. Zinc was evaluated because concentrations were highest relative to national water quality criteria for brown trout, and zinc had the greatest frequency of criteria exceedances compared with other metals. Data attributes evaluated included measurement and model error, sample size, non‐normality, seasonality and uncertainty. The average measurement errors for discharges, concentrations and loadings were 0·15, 0·1 and 0·18, respectively. The 90 and 95% coefficients of confidence intervals for mean concentrations based on a sample size of four were 0·48 and 0·65, respectively, and ranged between 0·15 and 0·23 for sample sizes greater than 40. Aggregation of data from multiple stations decreased the confidence intervals significantly, but additional aggregation of all data increased them as a result of increasing spatial variability. Unit area loading data were approximately log‐normal. Concentration data were right‐skewed but not log‐normal. Differences in median concentrations were appreciable between snowmelt and both storm flow and baseflow, but not between storm flow and baseflow. Differences in unit area loadings between all flow events were large. It was determined that the average concentration and unit area loading values should be estimated for each flow event because of significant seasonality. Time weighted values generally should be computed if annual information is required. The confidence in average concentrations and unit area loadings is dependent on the computation method used. Both concentrations and loadings can be significantly underestimated on an annual basis when using data from synoptic surveys if the first flush of contaminants during the initial snowmelt runoff period is not sampled. The ambient standard for dissolved zinc for all events was estimated as 1600 μg l⁻¹ using the 85th percentile of observed concentration data, with a 90% confidence interval width of 200 μg l⁻¹. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气象中使用统计检验的几个问题

针对目前在气象和气候要素变化分析中,对相关系数和合成分析使用统计检验存在的若干问题进行评论。认为对相关系数等统计检验,不应该称为“信度检验”,其检验水平也不应该称为“95％置信度”,而应该称为“显性检验”,“显性水平为5％”。     

淮河下游暴雨和非暴雨天气特征分析

选用2003年6月21日到7月11日梅汛期12次暴雨和9次非暴雨过程,对其天气形势、物理量进行了合成平均对比分析;结合副热带高压脊线和地面锋面的位置,利用T213的20：00格点资料,计算和绘制了暴雨日和非暴雨日的合成平均物理量场,分析两类天气的热力和动力条件特征,揭示了它们之间的差异,并在此基础上建立了暴雨短期预报的概念模式。     

1991～2013年发生在西沙永兴岛的台风风暴潮统计特征分析

利用1991～2013年西沙海洋站实测的潮位、气压、风资料,统计分析发生在西沙永兴岛的台风风暴潮特征.统计结果为以后的台风风暴潮增水预报工作提供一定借鉴.统计分析发现：发生在永兴岛的台风风暴潮过程年最大增水值基本在34cm处上下波动,最高预警级别仅为蓝色;最大增水有明显的年际变化特征,预计接下来10a左右发生在永兴岛的台风风暴增水值大体逐年递减;最大增水若与极大天文潮相叠加,在永兴岛可能出现灾害性高潮位;年最大增水有明显的季节特征,在夏季最强,其次为秋季,冬季和春季最弱;台风中心经过时由负压引起的增水较为明显,单峰型、双峰型和振荡型的增水曲线形态均有出现;影响西沙永兴岛的热带气旋的年最大风速年际与季节性变化是导致永兴岛台风风暴潮特征的主要成因之一.