日照市短时冰雹定时-定点-定量预报

利用1960～2000年青岛、射阳、徐州3站08时探空资料及日照站08时地面气象资料，分析了日照地区出现的16次降雹天气的时空分布特征，在对降雹天气分型的基础上利用积云数值模式计算降雹因子，用降雹因子和单站要素因子建立历史降雹因子个例库，用历史实况资料建立实况个例库，用距离相似法实现日照地区短时冰雹定时、定点、定量的客观预报。     

Quantitative Evaluation of Water Deposited By Dew on Monuments

Samples of White and Green Carrara marble, and three types oflimestone and brick exposed in the field vertically and horizontally were used to evaluate condensationon monuments during clear sky nights. Experiments in a simulation chamber under controlledconditions led to a general equation for the actual amount of water deposited on a surface by dew.This is determined by: How much and for how long the surface temperature falls below the dew point,the moisture content in the air and the ventilation. On clear nights, the condensation on buildingstructures facing the sky may reach some 0.2 kg m^-2 (or 0.2 mm), whereas condensation on verticalsurfaces is very small. Computation of the seasonal trend of night-time condensationshowed that the maximum amount of water condensed per night occurs in the autumn, with the moreabundant concentration of moisture in the air. The total amount of water condensed per month isfound to be a maximum in the summer-autumn period. Morning condensationfor the thermal inertia of monuments is also relevant, and has been calculated to reach the same order of magnitude as thenocturnal dew. A detailed analysis of the temperature and mixing ratio profiles near a condensingsurface has shown two different situations. In still air, the two profiles follow an exponentiallaw and the thermal and the concentration layers lie within a few tens of millimetres. Inthe presence of turbulence, the thickness of these two layers is dramatically reduced. In still air, infront of a vertical, chilly surface, the deposition rate of air pollutants by thermophoresis and/orStefan flow is increased by 3 or 4 times in comparison with a horizontal surface. In the presence ofturbulence, the thickness of the thermal and concentration layers was dramatically reduced, makingthese two kinds of deposition much faster.     

Correlation of seismic activity and fumarole temperature at the Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia) in 2000

In this paper we present densely sampled fumarole temperature data, recorded continuously at a high-temperature fumarole of Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia). These temperature time series are correlated with continuous records of rainfall and seismic waveform data collected at the Indonesian–German multi-parameter monitoring network. The correlation analysis of fumarole temperature and precipitation data shows a clear influence of tropical rain events on fumarole temperature. In addition, there is some evidence that rainfall may influence seismicity rates, indicating interaction of meteoric water with the volcanic system. Knowledge about such interactions is important, as lava dome instabilities caused by heavy-precipitation events may result in pyroclastic flows. Apart from the strong external influences on fumarole temperature and seismicity rate, which may conceal smaller signals caused by volcanic degassing processes, the analysis of fumarole temperature and seismic data indicates a statistically significant correlation between a certain type of seismic activity and an increase in fumarole temperature. This certain type of seismic activity consists of a seismic cluster of several high-frequency transients and an ultra-long-period signal (<0.002 Hz), which are best observed using a broadband seismometer deployed at a distance of 600 m from the active lava dome. The corresponding change in fumarole temperature starts a few minutes after the ultra-long-period signal and simultaneously with the high-frequency seismic cluster. The change in fumarole temperature, an increase of 5 °C on average, resembles a smoothed step. Fifty-four occurrences of simultaneous high-frequency seismic cluster, ultra-long period signal and increase of fumarole temperature have been identified in the data set from August 2000 to January 2001. The observed signals appear to correspond to degassing processes in the summit region of Mt. Merapi.     

98.7湖北特大暴雨的天气分析与降水模拟

1998年7月20～23日，湖北省南部发生了一次持续性特大暴雨过程，采用双向嵌套的非静力中尺度数值模式(MM5)对这次强暴雨过程进行初步模拟试验。结果表明，粗、细网格均能较好地模拟出雨带的走向和变动以及武汉地区的暴雨中心，尤其是嵌套域(细网格)模拟的降水强度比粗网格有明显改进，和实际观测结果更接近；另外，对引发这次特大暴雨的对流层低层的中尺度系统也能够很好地模拟出来。     

加强气象依法行政促进气象事业发展

随着“依法治国”方略在气象部门的贯彻，作为气象行政执法主体机关，气象部门应如何搞好依法行政，保证气象事业快速有序发展，从而更好地为经济社会服务，本文从目前气象依法行政工作中面临的主要问题出发，结合市(地)气象部门的实际情况，提出了今后气象依法行政要做好的五方面工作。     

Public Participation in Planning: an intellectual history

This paper tracks the changing role of public participation in planning thought. In doing so, the paper shows that the role of public participation in planning is largely determined by the nature of the planning enterprise being undertaken. The definition of the planning problem, the kinds of knowledge used in planning practice, and the conceptualisation of the planning and decision-making context are the important determinants of the extent of participation offered to the public. The paper therefore contributes to thinking about how to evaluate public participation by showing that it can only be understood in terms of the decision-making context in which it is embedded. Specifically, it makes little sense to evaluate public participation in terms that are not shared by the planning model itself     

中国东部7类暴雨异常环流型

近年来的研究发现,瞬变扰动天气图上的扰动场天气系统对区域暴雨的落区指示能力强于传统天气图上的总场天气系统。为供预报员在业务预报中参考,本文划分1998年发生在中国东部地区的41日次区域暴雨为7类扰动场天气系统。与区域暴雨相联系的7类异常环流型分别是:华南切变线、华南涡旋、华南倒槽、长江切变线与槽、沿江涡旋、华北涡旋和东北涡旋。无论是在对流层的垂直剖面上,还是在850 hPa水平分布上,扰动天气图上位势高度低值和风扰动辐合处并配合大的水汽扰动对应有区域暴雨,而传统天气图上的低值系统和高水汽区与暴雨之间存在位置上的偏移。由此建议,用实况大气变量和中期数值模式产品绘制扰动天气图有助于预报员确定区域暴雨落区。     

天气尺度波列对长江中下游6月梅雨的影响

采用1979—2007年6月NCEP/NCAR2.5°×2.5°逐日再分析资料和中国743站逐日降水资料,利用相关分析、合成分析等方法,分析了天气尺度波列的特征及其对长江中下游6月梅雨的影响。结果表明:当长江中下游6月梅雨较少时,东亚及西太平洋区域存在一个天气尺度波列;该波列的延伸距离较短(从黄河河套地区经过长江中下游至南海、菲律宾海一带),维持时间也很短,且仅仅在500 h Pa以下较强。诊断及个例分析表明,当该波列异常显著时,长江中下游梅雨降水明显减少,而其南部区域降水则增多,说明该波列对预报长江中下游降水具有重要的指示意义。     

面向蓝藻的洱海气象监测站布局方法

针对洱海流域蓝藻预警研究所需的气象数据不足的问题,提出洱海气象监测站优化布局方法,采用环境影响统计概念模型分析了对环境产生影响的主要经济因素,根据水体污染指标将洱海各个行政区分为高污染区和低污染区,再考虑汇入洱海支流是否流经高污染区,认为在高污染区支流汇入口是蓝藻发生概率较高的区域。依据2个主要参数:区域污染程度和支流入口,部署气象监测站,该监测站能为洱海蓝藻预警研究提供必要、准确和可靠的水面气温、降雨量以及日照长度等气象参数,将对水环境的监测和研究具有重大意义和广泛应用前景。     

微波辐射计在对流天气预报中的应用

选取2016—2018年每年4—9月份RPG-HATPRO型42通道微波辐射计观测的不稳定指数参数(K、SI、CAPE、LI)及水汽参数(IWV、LWP),研究得出各参数触发雷雨大风、短时强降水的阈值条件为K>37℃、SI<-1℃、IWV>60 kg/m~2、LWP>400 g/m~2,而LI、CAPE无法对3种天气类型进行区分。利用费舍判别分析方法,将不稳定指数参数及水汽参数作为预报因子,建立预报方程并进行检验,结果表明:二级判别方程预测对流天气的准确率为76%,可以作为预报对流天气的辅助工具;多级判别方程不能很好地区分3种天气类型,但将其作为修正后的二级判别方程使用,能提高对流天气的测中概率。