A comparison of the GIS based landslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versus bivariate

The purpose of this study is to evaluate and to compare the results of multivariate (logical regression) and bivariate (landslide susceptibility) methods in Geographical Information System (GIS) based landslide susceptibility assessment procedures. In order to achieve this goal the Asarsuyu catchment in NW Turkey was selected as a test zone because of its well-known landslide occurrences interfering with the E-5 highway mountain pass.Two methods were applied to the test zone and two separate susceptibility maps were produced. Following this a two-fold comparison scheme was implemented. Both methods were compared by the Seed Cell Area Indexes (SCAI) and by the spatial locations of the resultant susceptibility pixels.It was found that both of the methods converge in 80% of the area; however, the weighting algorithm in the bivariate technique (landslide susceptibility method) had some severe deficiencies, as the resultant hazard classes in overweighed areas did not converge with the factual landslide inventory map. The result of the multivariate technique (logical regression) was more sensitive to the different local features of the test zone and it resulted in more accurate and homogeneous susceptibility maps.     

Late Holocene lake level dynamics inferred from magnetic susceptibility and stable oxygen isotope data: Lake Elsinore, southern California (USA)

Southern California faces an imminent freshwater shortage. To better assess the future impact of this water crisis, it is essential that we develop continental archives of past hydrological variability. Using four sediment cores from Lake Elsinore in Southern California, we reconstruct late Holocene (3800 calendar years B.P.) hydrological change using a twentieth-century calibrated, proxy methodology. We compared magnetic susceptibility from Lake Elsinore deep basin sediments, lake level from Lake Elsinore, and regional winter precipitation data over the twentieth century to calibrate the late Holocene lake sediment record. The comparison revealed a strong positive, first-order relationship between the three variables. As a working hypothesis, we suggest that periods of greater precipitation produce higher lake levels. Greater precipitation also increases the supply of detritus (i.e., magnetic-rich minerals) from the lake's surrounding drainage basin into the lake environment. As a result, magnetic susceptibility values increase during periods of high lake level. We apply this modern calibration to late Holocene sediments from the lake's littoral zone. As an independent verification of this hypothesis, we analyzed ¹⁸O_(calcite), interpreted as a proxy for variations in the precipitation:evaporation ratio, which reflect first order hydrological variability. The results of this verification support our hypothesis that magnetic susceptibility records regional hydrological change as related to precipitation and lake level. Using both proxy data, we analyzed the past 3800 calendar years of hydrological variability. Our analyses indicate a long period of dry, less variable climate between 3800 and 2000 calendar years B.P. followed by a wet, more variable climate to the present. These results suggest that droughts of greater magnitude and duration than those observed in the modern record have occurred in the recent geological past. This conclusion presents insight to the potential impact of future droughts on the over-populated, water-poor region of Southern California.     

Comparison of Fry strain ellipse and AMS ellipsoid trends to tectonic fabric trends in very low-strain sandstone of the Appalachian fold–thrust belt

In moderately to highly strained sandstones, both the long axis of the bedding-parallel finite-strain ellipse, as calculated by the normalized Fry method, and the projection of the long axis of the AMS ellipsoid on the plane of bedding, align well with local “structural grain” (trends of cleavage, folds, and faults). This relationship implies that results of both 2D Fry and AMS analyses represent the local layer-parallel tectonic strain component. Do both methods provide comparable results for very low-strain sandstone (e.g., <5%)? To address this question, Fry and AMS analyses were conducted in very low-strain sandstone from two localities in the Appalachian foreland fold–thrust belt: near Rosendale in New York and the Lackawanna synclinorium of Pennsylvania. We compared the map projections of both bedding-parallel Fry ellipses and AMS ellipsoids to the local structural grain. In both study areas, projections of the long axis of Fry strain ellipses do not cluster in a direction parallel to structural grain, whereas the projection of the long axes of AMS ellipsoids do cluster closely to structural grain. This observation implies that in very low-strain sandstone, AMS analysis provides a more sensitive “quick” indicator of tectonic fabric than does normalized Fry analysis.     

云南点苍山冰川湖泊沉积物磁化率的影响因素及其环境意义

文章通过对点苍山海拔3820m冰水沉积剖面的粒度参数、磁化率、氧化铁含量和有机质含量的综合实验分析,并讨论了这些指标的相互关系及其环境意义。实验结果表明,磁化率的强度与粗砂组分的含量成正相关,而与粘土等细粒组分含量成负相关;同时与有机质含量成负相关,与氧化铁含量成正相关。矿物组分分析实验表明,沉积物主要磁性来源于磁化铁。根据以上结果,结合冰川湖泊流域面积小、高寒环境的特点,其磁化率的影响因素与一般湖泊不同,认为冰川湖泊沉积中,因为物源较近导致外源磁性矿物主要赋存于粒度较粗的碎屑颗粒中,而高寒的环境条件使得有机质对沉积物的磁性矿物起到了稀释的作用,而很难有积极的贡献。根据磁化率的环境意义,恢复了全新世以来点苍山的古气候,从中可以划分6个不同的气候阶段:11.5～10.6kaB.P.,10.6～8.9kaB.P.,8.9～5.5kaB.P.,5.5～3.3kaB.P.,3.3～0.8kaB.P.和0.8kaB.P.至今,代表了末次冰期结束以后湖泊从产生至消亡的全过程。根据与其他相关地区的对比,分析了西南季风演变的一些规律。     

基于灰色关联度模型的区域滑坡敏感性评价

数理统计和机器学习模型如支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)等,在区域滑坡敏感性评价中得到广泛的应用.但这些模型的建模过程往往较复杂,如在对机器学习进行训练和测试时难以选取合理的非滑坡栅格单元,而且有较多的模型参数需要确定.为提高滑坡敏感性评价建模的效率和精度,提出基于灰色关联度的敏感性评价模型.灰色关联度模型能有效计算各比较样本与参考样本之间的定量的关联度,具有建模过程简洁和评价精度高的优点,该模型目前在区域滑坡敏感性评价中的应用还没有引起研究人员的足够关注且有待进一步拓展.拟将灰色关联度模型用于浙江省飞云江流域南田—雅梅图幅(南田地区)的滑坡敏感性评价,并将得到的评价结果与SVM模型的敏感性评价结果作对比分析.结果显示,灰色关联度模型在高和极高敏感区的滑坡预测精度优于SVM模型,而在中等敏感区的滑坡预测精度略低于SVM模型;整体而言,灰色关联度模型对整个南田地区滑坡敏感性分布的预测精度略高于SVM模型.对两个模型建模过程的对比结果显示,灰色关联度模型建模较简单,具有比SVM模型更高的建模效率,为滑坡敏感性评价提供了一种新思路.     

基于信息量法的地质灾害气象风险预警模型:以甘肃省陇南地区为例

地质灾害气象风险预警是目前地质灾害防治研究领域的难点和热点。陇南地区是中国地质灾害造成人员财产损失和受灾害威胁最严重的区域之一,为精细化和准确化预报陇南地区地质灾害风险,在ArcGIS平台将研究区划分为250 m×250 m的栅格单元,使用信息量法选取9个影响因素进行地质环境敏感性评价,结合有效降雨量构建地质灾害气象风险预警模型;该模型通过6次历史降雨事件引发的156起地质灾害验证,预报准确率为83.42%,提高了研究区内地质灾害风险预警精度。该研究基于信息量法的地质环境敏感性分区客观合理,综合考虑下垫面和气象要素的第二代预警模型在类似地区的应用,有较高的准确性和适用性。     

Use of the magnetic,geochemical, and sedimentary records in establishing paleoclimate change in the environment of Sebkha: Case of the Sebkha Mhabeul in southeastern Tunisia

In this study, we explored the evidence of late Holocene climate changes in southern Tunisia, examining extreme events of flood and sandstorm sedimentary succession records, in Sebkha Mhabeul. A sediment-derived climatic proxy was inferred from a 93.5-cm-deep core (Mh1), whose dating by tephrochronology has already been achieved in previous works. Multiple geochemical, sedimentological, magnetic susceptibility, and quartz grain microtexture proxies were used to determine the shifts in regional climatic conditions. The Sebkha core captured sensitive changes in the precipitation/evaporation (P/E) balance by adjustments in salinity, and is especially valuable for reconstructing variability over centennial timescales. The Sebkha Mhabeul area showed higher salinity during the Roman Warm Period (RWP: 2100–1400 cal yr BP), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP: 1000–600 cal yr BP) and the present era, and generally lower salinity during the Dark Ages (DA: 1400-1000 cal yr BP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA: 600-200 cal yr BP).In southeastern Tunisia, the hydrological behavior was sometimes consistent with the flood activities in the eastern Mediterranean, and sometimes contemporaneous with the flood pulsations of the western Mediterranean.     

Evaluation of riverbed magnetic susceptibility for mapping biogeochemical hot spots in groundwater-impacted rivers

Redox hot spots occurring as metal-rich anoxic groundwater discharges through oxic wetland and river sediments commonly result in the formation of iron (Fe) oxide precipitates. These redox-sensitive precipitates influence the release of nutrients and metals to surface water and can act as ‘contaminant sponges’ by absorbing toxic compounds. We explore the feasibility of a non-invasive, high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) technique to efficiently map the spatial variations of magnetic Fe oxide precipitates in the shallow bed of three rivers impacted by anoxic groundwater discharge. Laboratory analyses on Mashpee River (MA, USA) sediments demonstrate the sensitivity of MS to sediment Fe concentrations. Field surveys in the Mashpee and Quashnet rivers (MA, USA) reveal several discrete high MS zones, which are associated with likely anoxic groundwater discharge as evaluated by riverbed temperature, vertical head gradient, and groundwater chemistry measurements. In the East River (CO, USA), widespread cobbles/rocks exhibit high background MS from geological ferrimagnetic minerals, thereby obscuring the relatively small enhancement of MS from groundwater induced Fe oxide precipitates. Our study suggests that, in settings with low geological sources of magnetic minerals such as lowland rivers and wetlands, MS may serve as a complementary tool to temperature methods for efficiently mapping Fe oxide accumulation zones due to anoxic groundwater discharges that may function as biogeochemical hot spots and water quality control points in gaining systems.     

Palaeoseismic records in lacustrine sediments—A case study of the Daqingshan piedmont fault and Hasuhai Lake in Inner Mongolia,China

As a traditional method for palaeoseismic studies, trenching can be combined with dating techniques to identify palaeoseismic events and the earthquake recurrence interval. However, when using trenches to study palaeoearthquakes, factors such as the active tectonic background of the earthquake‐caused structure, the lithology on both sides of the fault, the geomorphology location and type and the samples and methods for dating will affect the location of the trench. Thus, trenches should be carefully selected and used to identify the impact of ancient earthquakes. The results have substantial uncertainties and limitations. In recent years, scholars have made considerable progress in using other methods to reveal the palaeoseismic information of faults. Moreover, the history of fault activity may have been recorded in the lacustrine sediment adjacent to the fault. Hasuhai Lake is adjacent to the middle segment of the Daqingshan piedmont fault in Inner Mongolia. Since the Holocene, the region has experienced a temperate continental semi‐arid climate with little interference, and Hasuhai Lake and peripheral waters present weak hydrodynamic conditions that provide an ideal location for the study of palaeoseismic records in lacustrine sediments. Sediment samples and samples for dating were collected from three trenches excavated on the periphery of the Hasuhai Lake. Their variations in grain size and magnetic susceptibility revealed that wind and flowing water jointly produced the sedimentary conditions of Hasuhai sediments. The ¹⁴C dating results and variations in the grain size distribution, grain size components and magnetic susceptibility of sediments caused by seismic events obtained in this study were compared with those caused by a series of palaeoseismic events at the middle segment of the Daqingshan piedmont fault reported by previous studies using trenches, knickpoints and palaeosol records. The results identified seven palaeoseismic events recorded near Hasuhai Lake since 12,000 years. The combined use of lacustrine sediment variation characteristics and dating techniques is an effective method for studying palaeoseismic events.