Storminess and surges in the South-Western Approaches of the eastern North Atlantic: the synoptic climatology of recent extreme coastal storms

The climatology of intense winter cyclone events in the eastern North Atlantic responsible for high magnitude surge generation (top 1% of events) within the region of the South-Western Approaches to northwest France and southwest England is extracted from daily sea-level and 500-hPa level atmospheric pressure analyses. Cluster analysis yields discrete cyclone track regimes linked to upper airflow patterns being responsible for the generation of intense storms (central pressure at sea-level ≤990 hPa) which promote severe surge events ≥60 cm along the French coast of the South-Western Approaches. Fluctuations in storminess are strongly influenced by the southward intrusion and strengthening of the jet stream in mid-Atlantic. These occurrences are often associated with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies near Newfoundland and a strengthening of the thermal gradient across the Atlantic well to the south of its normal position. Resultant cyclogenesis promotes storms displaying a delay in minimum central pressure attainment until well east of 14°W, encouraging enhancement of surge flow. Stepwise multiple regression analysis indicates that the most influential variables in promoting severe surge events in the South-Western Approaches are trans-Atlantic sea surface temperature gradients. The most important influence is the prevailing west–east sea surface temperature gradient during the month of the storm, followed by that for the prior month of the storm and thirdly, the north–south sea surface temperature gradient prevailing during the month of the event. Other influential variables reflect the character of the cyclone, storm duration, mean deepening rate of storm central pressure, the value of the outermost closed isobar around the storm centre, and the longitudinal position of the outermost closed isobar to the right of the cyclone track. In contrast, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is not very effective as a discriminator of surge activity. This may reflect the greater intra-month volatility of parameters used to derive the NAO index than of other monthly variables considered in the study. The lack of resolvability at the individual storm level probably also arises because of the monthly detailing of the NAO against storms of 2–3 days duration. This behavioural model of extreme storminess in the South-Western Approaches to northwest France provides the basis by which extremes of coastal susceptibility can be calibrated.     

一个风暴潮数值模式及其开边界问题

在文献[1]的基础上,本文设计了一个风暴潮数值模式,并讨论了在近岸海洋动力学计算中具有普遍意义的开边界问题.所用的计算格式在有开边界和不规则海岸边界的情形下,仍能较好地保持原海流问题的质量和能量变化关系,因而具有较好的计算稳定性和计算精度.本文计算了“7203”号和“8509”号台风暴潮,并与实况相比较,所得计算结果图象清晰地再现了渤海这两次台风增水过程的基本特征.     

ANALYSIS ON THE DEBRIS FLOW SURGES

ＡＮＡＬＹＳＩＳＯＮＴＨＥＤＥＢＲＩＳＦＬＯＷＳＵＲＧＥＳ￥ＷａｎｇＧｕａｎｇｑｉａｎ（Ｐｒｏｆｅｓｓｏｒ，Ｄｅｐｔ．ｏｆＨｙｄｒａｕｌｉｃＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ，ＴｓｉｎｇｈｕａＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ）Ａｂｓｔｒａｃｔ：Ｂａｓｅｄｏｎｔｈｅｆｕｎｄａ...     

Modeling the impact of wind and waves on suspended particulate matter fluxes in the East Frisian Wadden Sea (southern North Sea)

Suspended particulate matter (SPM) fluxes and dynamics are investigated in the East Frisian Wadden Sea using a coupled modeling system based on a hydrodynamical model [the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM)], a third-generation wave model [Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)], and a SPM module attached to GETM. Sedimentological observations document that, over longer time periods, finer sediment fractions disappear from the Wadden Sea Region. In order to understand this phenomenon, a series of numerical scenarios were formulated to discriminate possible influences such as tidal currents, wind-enhanced currents, and wind-generated surface waves. Starting with a simple tidal forcing, the considered scenarios are designed to increase the realism step by step to include moderate and strong winds and waves and, finally, to encompass the full effects of one of the strongest storm surges affecting the region in the last hundred years (Storm Britta in November 2006). The results presented here indicate that moderate weather conditions with wind speeds up to 7.5 m/s and small waves lead to a net import of SPM into the East Frisian Wadden Sea. Waves play only a negligible role during these conditions. However, for stronger wind conditions with speeds above 13 m/s, wind-generated surface waves have a significant impact on SPM dynamics. Under storm conditions, the numerical results demonstrate that sediments are eroded in front of the barrier islands by enhanced wave action and are transported into the back-barrier basins by the currents. Furthermore, sediment erosion due to waves is significantly enhanced on the tidal flats. Finally, fine sediments are flushed out of the tidal basins due to the combined effect of strong erosion by wind-generated waves and a longer residence time in the water column because of their smaller settling velocities compared to coarser sediments.

长江口以外海域风暴潮与天文潮的非线性相互作用

一个二维数值模式被用于研究长江口以外海域的风暴潮与天文潮的非线性相互作用。用这个模式模拟了 1981年 8114号台风与天文潮共同作用下所引起的风暴潮增水。 8114号台风是近 2 0年中最重要的台风之一。该台风登陆点附近有吴淞验潮站 ,这里有完整的风暴潮水位记录。计算结果与该站实测值符合较好 ,说明模拟是成功的。此外 ,从模拟结果中还可得出一些有益的结论     

Predict typhoon-induced storm surge deviation in a principal component back-propagation neural network model

To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge, in which data of the typhoon, upstream flood, and historical case studies were involved. With principal component analysis, 15 input factors were reduced to five principal components, and the application of the model was improved. Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai, China were used to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.     

A Study of Surges: II. On the Relationship between Chromospheric Surges and Coronal Mass Ejections

Liu et al. (Astrophys. J. 628, 1056, 2005a) described one surge – coronal mass ejection (CME) event showing a close relationship between solar chromospheric surge ejection and CME that had not been noted before. In this work, large Hα surges (>72 Mm, or 100 arcsec) are studied. Eight of these were associated with CMEs. According to their distinct morphological features, Hα surges can be classified into three types: jetlike, diffuse, and closed loop. It was found that all of the jetlike surges were associated with jetlike CMEs (with angular widths ≤30 degrees); the diffuse surges were all associated with wide-angle CMEs (e.g., halo); the closed-loop surges were not associated with CMEs. The exclusive relation between Hα surges and CMEs indicates difference in magnetic field configurations. The jetlike surges and related narrow CMEs propagate along coronal fields that are originally open. The unusual transverse mass motions in the diffuse surges are suggested to be due to magnetic reconnections in the corona that produce wide-angle CMEs. For the closed-loop surges, their paths are just outlining stable closed loops close to the solar surface. Thus no CMEs are associated with them.     

1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮分布的时空特征

搜集到1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮记录2119条,以此为基础,重建区域历史风暴潮发生的时间序列与空间分布。从年内分布情况看,苏沪浙地区历史风暴潮主要发生在6-10月,其中7-9月占80%,8月为全年最高值,占37%。68.56%的历史风暴潮发生在农历朔望日前后,其中发生在朔日前后（农历二十七至次月初四）的占35.57%,发生在望日前后（农历十三至十九）的占32.99%。小波分析结果显示：风暴潮年际变化时间序列存在54 a、30 a、17 a周期。历史风暴潮引起的海侵多发生在沿海地区,苏北地区历史风暴潮海侵淹没界线达4 m高程,长三角地区历史风暴潮海侵淹没界线达5 m高程,杭州湾沿岸、浙东沿海地区则分别达5 m和6 m高程。     

On the contributions of atmospheric pressure and wind to daily sea level in the northern Adriatic Sea

Daily sea level variability in the Adriatic Sea is studied from different data sets using Empirical Orthogonal Functions, in connection with atmospheric pressure and wind stress. The first mode explains 56–69% of total variance and consists of uniform sea level variability all over the basin, correlated with atmospheric pressure through the inverse barometer effect. The second mode explains 13–16% of variance and accounts for an along-basin sea level gradient, which is correlated with the meridional wind stress component. The first two Principal Components are used as proxies to pressure- and wind-induced components of storm surges in the northern Adriatic. The analysis of the frequency of the most intense events in the 1957–2005 period shows that the wind contribution to storm surges has decreased, while no significant trends are found in the contribution of atmospheric pressure.