Evaluating the economic damage of climate change on global coral reefs

This paper evaluates the global economic damage arising from the effects of climate change and associated carbon dioxide concentrations on the loss of coral reefs. We do this by first estimating the effects of sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations on coral cover. We develop a statistical relationship between coral coverage and sea surface temperature that indicates that the effects are dependent on the temperature range. For example, we find that increasing sea surface temperature causes coral coverage to decrease when sea surface temperature is higher than 26.85 °C, with the estimated reduction being 2.3% when sea surface temperature increases by 1%. In addition, we find that a 1% carbon dioxide increase induces a 0.6% reduction in global coral coverage. We also estimate the resultant loss in economic value based on a meta-analysis of the recreational and commercial value of reef coverage and a crude proportional approach for other value factors. The meta-analysis shows that the coral reef value decreases by 3.8% when coral cover falls by 1%. By combining these two steps we find that the lost value in terms of the global coral reef value under climate change scenarios ranges from US$3.95 to US$23.78 billion annually.     

基于WRF/CALMET的近地面精细化风场的动力模拟试验研究

本文利用中尺度动力模式 WRF和诊断模式CALMET对琼州海峡的两次冷空气过程的近地层风场进行模拟和诊断,所用的资料是美国NCEP再分析FNL资料。WRF模式第一至第四层网格的水平距离分别是27、9、3和1 km,并用WRF-1 km场以单向嵌套模拟方式降至200 m,同时以 WRF-1 km 预报场作为 CALMET 初猜场降尺度诊断至200 m。分别用CALMET-200 m风场、WRF-1 km风场和 WRF-200 m风场,3个风场的风速、风向与沿琼海海峡分布的21个测站（其中6个测风塔）观测资料进行检验比较分析。主要结论是：（1）CALMET-200 m的风速RMSE明显小于另外两组试验,风向RMSE总体上差异不大;在60～80 m高度上也没有明显差异。（2）在0～8 m·s－1风速,10 m高度上CALMET-200 m风场诊断结果最好,风速平均偏差值从4～0 m·s－1,WRF的两组试验平均偏差值比CALMET-200 m结果大约2 m·s－1,风向上表现为偏差的分布更加集中;60～80 m高度上,CALMET-200 m 诊断效果与 WRF-1 km 模拟效果相当,但是冷空气时段内 WRF-200 m的风速要远远差于另外两组试验;而3组试验的风向并无大的差异。（3）WRF／CALMET模式系统在非冷空气活动时段内的风速风向模拟诊断偏差更小,说明其在层结相对较稳定时模拟诊断的准确度更高。     

北京城市下垫面的非均匀性度量研究

城市下垫面非均匀性度量研究对于改进中尺度数值模式、提高城市气象预报准确率具有重要意义.基于分形布朗运动理论和Landsat-TM卫星遥感图像,估算了2011年北京典型下垫面类型个例和整个空间区域的分数维,由此来度量北京城市下垫面的非均匀性特征.研究结果显示:分数维能有效度量北京城市下垫面的非均匀程度,典型下垫面类型的分数维高低顺序为商业区 >大型居民区 >城市绿地 >农田>林地 >水体;北京六环内区域及郊区城镇地表非均匀特征明显,分数维一般在2.50以上,北京城市中心(二环内)存在一个分数维相对低值区,二环—四环之间区域分数维普遍较高,在2.70以上,五环以外分数维则不断降低,反映出北京城市下垫面非均匀性从中心向外呈低—高—低的空间分布;下垫面类型中建筑用地、绿地、未利用地、农田、林地和水体的平均分数维分别为2.71、2.62、2.55、2.38、2.30和2.28,分数维值的高低反映了城市下垫面类型的非均匀程度大小,对定量描述城市边界层参数的复杂特征具有参考意义.     

2011年盛夏石家庄一次短时暴雨分析

2011年7月26日石家庄市出现一次暴雨冰雹天气,其特点是500 h Pa及以上高空强冷空气导致高空形势在12 h内发生剧变,短波槽快速南下,致使探空观测和数值预报失灵。本文对其他监测资料进行分析,发现这种剧烈变化的天气有明显特征:卫星云图上河套北部逗点云系尾长而粗壮,有向南发展趋势,云系后部的暗区表明干冷空气侵入,与低层暖湿空气形成对流云,尾部断裂表明冷空气加速南下。单站要素变化显示,石家庄地面假相当位温比正常值高了8℃,出现异常不稳定能量。强对流天气发生在假相当位温密集带内,能量中心假相当位温最高达到90℃以上,100 km内假相当位温温差超过25℃,最大降雨出现在假相当位温密集带内。雷达回波呈西南—东北带状排列,前部最大强度为65 d BZ,强回波前形成阵风锋,正负最大速度均超过20 m/s,飑线自西向东移动,它的移向和发展程度决定降雨和冰雹的路径和强度。石家庄市区风向转变和形成地面辐合线分别较降水起始时间提前21 min和30 min。     

A DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MODE OVER CHINA IN 2009/2010 WINTER BASED ON GENERALIZED EQUILIBRIUM FEEDBACK ASSESSMENT (GEFA) METHOD

By using the observed monthly mean data over 160 stations of China and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment(GEFA) method, combined with the methods of EOF analysis, correlation and composite analysis, is used to explore the influence of different SST modes on a wintertime air temperature pattern in which it is cold in the northeast and warm in the southwest in China. The results show that the 2009/2010 winter air temperature oscillation mode between the northern and southern part of China is closely related to the corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) and its associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. Exhibiting warming in Northeast China and cooling in Southwest China, the mode is significantly forced by the El Nio mode and the North Atlantic SSTA mode, which have three poles. Under the influence of SSTA modes, the surface northerly flow transported cold air to North and Northeast China, resulting in low temperatures in the regions. Meanwhile, the mid-latitude westerlies intensify and the polar cold air stays in high latitudes and cannot affect the Southwest China, resulting in the warming there.     

全景深度图像精度分析及优化方法研究

针对三维激光点云数据生成360°全景深度图像存在像素分辨率不均匀的问题,提出一种顾及目标量测精度及可见度的全景深度图像生成方法,在保证全景影像表达地物的完整性的前提下提高其数据的存取精度。通过坐标转换和投影变换生成与全景影像匹配的全景深度图像;基于摄影成像原理分析摄影中心高度、深度值和像素分辨率之间的关系,得到不同深度处目标分辨率随摄影中心升高趋于一致的结论;综合分析地面目标分辨率和杆状目标尤其是树冠对树干的遮挡问题,确定特定场景下生成全景深度图像的最佳摄影中心位置并重新生成深度图像。实验分析表明,该方法能够在保证杆目标可见度的前提下提高地面目标量测精度。     

Barchan dune asymmetry: Observations from Mars and Earth

Barchan dune asymmetry refers to the extension of one barchan limb downwind. It is a common dune form on Earth and also occurs on Mars and Titan. A new classification of barchan limbs is presented where three types of limb morphology are identified: linear, kinked and beaded. These, along with other dune-scale morphological signatures, are used to identify three of the causes of barchan asymmetry on Mars: bi-directional winds, dune collision and the influence of inclined topography.The potential for specific dune asymmetric morphologies to indicate aspects of the formative wind regime on planetary surfaces is shown. For example, the placement of dune limbs can indicate the general direction and relative strength of formative oblique winds; an extreme barchan limb length may indicate a long duration oblique wind; a kinked limb may be evidence of the passage of a storm; beaded limbs may represent surface-wave instabilities caused by an increase in wind energy parallel to the dune. A preliminary application of these signatures finds evidence for bi-modal winds on Mars. However, these and other morphological signatures of wind direction and relative strength should be applied to planetary landforms with caution as more than one process (e.g., bi-modal winds and collision) may be operating together or sequentially on the dunefield. In addition, analysis should be undertaken at the dunefield scale and not on individual dunes. Finally, morphological data should be acquired from similar-scale dunes within a dunefield.In addition to bi-modal wind regimes on Mars, the frequent parallel alignment of the extended barchan limb to the dune suggests that dune collision is also an important cause of asymmetry on Mars. Some of the more complex dunefield patterns result from a combination of dune collision, limb extension and merging with downwind dunes.Dune asymmetric form does not inhibit dune migration in the Namib Desert or on Mars. Data from the Namib suggest that dune migration rates are similar for symmetric and asymmetric dunes. Further modeling and field studies are needed to refine our understanding of the potential range of limb and dune morphologies that can result from specific asymmetry causes.     

Intertidal sand‐dwelling Peracarid fauna of North Island,New Zealand

Abstract

Substrate and infauna samples were taken at four tidal levels (mean high water springs, high mid beach, low mid beach, and mean low water neaps) with a 0.0625 m² quadrat at 14 North Island beaches in New Zealand. The distributions of Peracarida (Crustacea) were correlated with sediment type, tidal height, and degree of exposure; sampling began in March 1972 and was completed in November 1973.

Substrate samples were sieved and median diameter of the particles ranged from very coarse sand of — 0.60? to very fine sand of + 3.259?. Substrates were variously sorted: ? quartile deviation ranged from 0.14? to 0.66?, skewness from ‐ 0.08? to + 0.07?.

Peracarid fauna was moderately abundant; the maximum value was 720 animals per square metre on a fully exposed beach. Highest average abundance (303 per square metre) for the 14 beaches was recorded from the mean low water neap station. Amphipoda was the dominant group (54% of all Peracarida recorded), followed by Isopoda (33%) and Cumacea (13%). Frequency of occurrence at the 56 stations was headed by Amphipoda (64%), followed by Isopoda (46%), and Cumacea (20%).

The results are compared with data from Stewart Island beaches, and the biogeographical distributions of recorded Peracarida are discussed. An unexpectedly high degree of endemism exists for a warm‐temperate region, caused by the isolation of New Zealand, which has no direct shallow water contact with tropical or cold temperate regions.     

Occurrence and fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the coastal surface microlayer

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured in the coastal sea surface microlayer (SML), the sub-surface waters (SSW) and the overlying atmosphere in order to investigate the influence of the SML on contaminant enrichment and air-sea exchange. Samples were collected at two contrasting locations of the NW Mediterranean, one urban influenced (off Barcelona, Spain) and another comparatively clean (off Banyuls-sur-Mer, France). Statistical data analysis confirmed the accumulation of PAHs in the SML with respect to the SSW (20.3+/-9.1 vs. 13.1+/-10.0 ng L(-1) in the dissolved phase; 709+/-207 vs. 158+/-111 ng g(-1) in the particulate phase). This accumulation was higher at the contaminated location (Barcelona station) compared with the more pristine one, with PAH enrichments 1.5 and 4.5 times higher for the dissolved and particulate phases, respectively, indicating that the enrichment of PAHs in the SML is dominated by particle transport processes.     

High outflow channels on Mars indicate Hesperian recharge at low latitudes and the presence of Canyon Lakes

A number of martian outflow channels were carved by discharges from large dilational fault zones. These channels were sourced by groundwater, not surface water, and when observed on high-standing plateaus they provide indicators of elevated paleo-groundwater levels. We identify three outflow channels of Hesperian age that issued from a 750-km-long fault zone extending from Candor Chasma to Ganges Chasma. Two of these channels, Allegheny Vallis and Walla Walla Vallis, have sources >2500 m above the topographic datum, too high to be explained by discharge from a global aquifer that was recharged solely in the south polar region. The indicated groundwater levels likely required regional sources of recharge at low latitudes. The floodwaters that erupted from Ophir Cavus to form Allegheny Vallis encountered two ridges that restricted the flow, forming temporary lakes. The flow probably breached or overtopped these obstructions quickly, catastrophically draining the lakes and carving several scablands. After the last obstacle had been breached, a single main channel formed that captured all subsequent flow. We performed hydrologic analyses of this intermediate phase of the flooding, prior to incision of the channel to its present depth. Using floodwater depths of 30-60 m, we calculated flow velocities of 6-15 m s⁻¹ and discharges in the range of . Locally higher flow velocities and discharges likely occurred when the transient lakes were drained. Variable erosion at the channel and scabland crossing of MOLA pass 10644 suggests that the upper 25-30 m may consist of poorly consolidated surface materials underlain by more cohesive bedrock. We infer that an ice-covered lake with a surface elevation >2500 m probably existed in eastern Candor Chasma because this canyon is intersected by the Ophir Catenae fault system from which Allegheny Vallis and Walla Walla Vallis originated. We introduce a new hydrology concept for Mars in which the groundwater system was augmented by recharge from canyon lakes that were formed when water was released by catastrophic melting of former ice sheets in Tharsis by effusions of flood basalts. This model could help to reconcile the expected presence of a thick cryosphere during the Hesperian with the abundant evidence for groundwater as a source for some of the circum-Chryse outflow channels.