Evaluation of Typhoon Waves Simulated by Wave Watch-Ⅲ Model in Shallow Waters Around Zhoushan Islands

In this study, we simulated typhoon waves in the shallow waters around the Zhoushan Islands using the WaveWatch-Ⅲ(WW3) model version 5.16, the latest version released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Specifically, we used in-situ measurements to evaluate the performance of seven packages of input/dissipation source terms in the WW3 model. We forced the WW3 model by wind fields derived from a combination of the parametric Holland model and high-resolution European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) wind data in a 0.125? grid, herein called H-E winds. We trained the H-E winds by fitting a shape parameter B to buoy-measured observations, which resulted in a smallest root mean square error(RMSE) of 3 m s^-1 for B, when treated as a constant 0.4. Then, we applied the seven input/dissipation terms of WW3, labelled ST1, ST2, ST2+STAB2, ST3, ST3+STAB3, ST4, and ST6, to simulate the significant wave height(SWH) up to 5 m during typhoons Fungwong and Chan-hom around the Zhoushan Islands. We then compared the SWHs of the simulated waves with those measured by the in-situ buoys. The results indicate that the simulation using ST2 performs best with an RMSE of 0.79 m for typhoon Fung-wong and an RMSE of 1.12 m for typhoon Chan-hom. Interestingly, we found the simulated SWH results to be relatively higher than those of the observations in the area between Hangzhou Bay and the Zhoushan Islands. This behavior is worthy of further investigation in the future.     

台风过程中浪致Stokes漂流对海洋上层温度影响的数值模拟

Stokes漂流对海洋上层温度变化具有重要影响。本文以"麦德姆(Matmo)"台风过程为例,基于浪流耦合模型,通过对比分析考虑和未考虑Stokes漂流的模拟结果,研究了台风过程中浪致Stokes漂流及其效应对海洋上层温度变化的影响。研究表明Stokes漂流及其效应与海浪大小的分布密切相关,海浪越大, Stokes漂流、Stokes输运和Ekman-Stokes数相对越大。Stokes漂流在台风过程中起降低海表面温度的作用,台风路径处的Stokes漂流及其效应较大,降温较明显,最大降温约2°C。产生降温的原因是Stokes漂流造成海表流场改变,以及Stokes输运引起海水辐散等作用加强了上下层海水质量和能量的交换。利用Argo资料进行验证,发现考虑了Stokes漂流作用的海洋上层温度模拟结果与Argo测量结果更接近。     

冷涡对过境台风的响应研究

利用多源卫星遥感资料及再分析资料,对台风泰利(Talim)对中尺度冷涡的影响进行了分析研究。结果表明,台风泰利过境中尺度冷涡时,冷涡显著增强。最大海面高度异常出现在冷涡中心区域,达到-32.7cm,最大海表温度降幅达到3℃以上,叶绿素平均浓度增长了10倍。通过计算冷涡海域的罗斯贝数、水体拉伸度和离散度等动力学参数,可以进一步发现,台风过境冷涡所在海域时,局地非地转效应和混合效应显著增强,罗斯贝数、水体拉伸和离散度均增加了2倍以上,最大水体拉伸度和离散度发生在冷涡南侧靠近台风路径的区域。本研究对深入理解涡-台风相互作用,以及由此产生的海洋生态环境效应具有重要的意义和作用。     

基于HY-2A微波散射计海面风场资料的台风风剖面信息提取研究

台风风剖面信息是直观反映与台风中心不同距离的各点与平均风速关系的曲线,它是确定各级台风风圈范围的重要基础。本文利用HY-2A微波散射计海面风场资料,结合Holland风场模型提出了一种新的台风风剖面信息提取方法,并选取2012–2017年期间16期典型台风进行应用。结果表明:34 kt与50 kt风圈半径的平均均方根误差为37.6 km与18.3 km,该方法具有较好的适用性和精度。本研究对于描述台风结构特征及潜在的破坏力和台风可能的影响范围具有一定的现实意义。     

中国浙江和福建海域台风浪变化特征和趋势

基于非结构网格的海浪-海流耦合模式SWAN+ADCIRC(Simulating Waves Nearshore+Advanced Circulation model),模拟了1997—2016年共20年间所有影响浙江和福建海域台风过程期间的海浪过程。利用4个台风过程期间的海浪观测数据对模拟结果进行了验证,模拟结果和实测结果吻合较好。基于该长时间序列台风浪模拟结果,分别分析了浙江和福建海岸带台风浪有效波高极值以及台风浪有效波高大于1m和1.5m的持续时间。结果显示,在福建北部海岸带台风浪有效波高极值和台风浪有效波高大于1m的持续时间(tHs1)有显著增长的趋势。其中,台风浪高极值的增长趋势最大可达0.05m/a,tHs1的增长趋势位于0.54至1.72h/a之间。分析tHs1与ENSO指数的关系发现,福建省南部海域台风浪与ENSO指数有较显著的负相关,浙江省北部海域台风浪与ENSO指数有较显著的正相关,ENSO信号对这两个海域的台风浪有着较显著的影响。     

微博中蕴含台风灾害损失信息识别和分类方法

社交媒体在灾害信息的实时发布与传播中发挥着越来越重要的作用。在灾害发生过程中,社交媒体中蕴含的实时灾损信息对灾情及时响应和评估有重要意义。然而,这些涉灾文本具有信息破碎度高、文本特征稀疏、标注语料库匮乏等缺点,使得传统的基于监督学习的方法难以有效提取其中的灾损信息。为此,本文提出了一种通过扩展上下文特征和匹配特征词的方法来快速识别和分类社交媒体中蕴含的不同类别的灾损信息。本方法首先基于中文语法规则,抽取小规模不同灾损类别下微博文本中的涉灾关键词构建特征词搭配对。然后,利用词向量模型和已有词库对这些特征词搭配对进行补充和扩展。同时,根据中文词语共现规则,引入外部语料库优化特征词间的语义搭配关系。最终,以此为基础构建台风灾损分类知识库对灾情文本中蕴含的不同类别灾损信息进行识别和分类。本文以2016年9月15日台风“莫兰蒂”登陆事件作为研究案例,以评估本文方法在灾损信息识别和分类上的效果。结果表明,本文方法对微博文本中蕴含的不同类别风灾损失信息的识别和分类效果显著（各类别综合评价指标都达到了0.74以上）。基于灾损信息分类结果,本文绘制了台风影响的时空分布图,从而进一步说明本文方法在灾害损失评估和减灾救灾方面的效用。     

224,223Ra和137Cs在吕宋海峡及周边海域的分布以及其对“彩虹”台风的响应

本文报道2015年9月和2016年5月期间天然放射性核素²²⁴Ra和²²³Ra在吕宋海峡及周边海域表层和垂向水体的分布特征。为理解日本福岛核事故的影响,本文亦分析研究区域内人工放射性核素¹³⁷Cs的分布特征。结果表明,^224,223Ra和¹³⁷Cs比活度水平均处于我国南海海洋天然放射性本底变化范围之内。²²⁴Ra在吕宋海峡以西南海北部海域比活度较高,在吕宋海峡以东菲律宾海域比活度较低。¹³⁷Cs没有明显的分布趋势。基于三站位（LS3,LS5和LS8）²²⁴Ra、¹³⁷Cs以及温盐的垂向分布特征,本文揭示²²⁴Ra和¹³⁷Cs在热带表层水、次表层水和中-深层水中比活度水平和梯度变化的差异特征。彩虹台风事件扭转了整个吕宋海峡及周边海域的海流循环过程。大量以低水平²²⁴Ra为特征的西太平洋海水涌入南海,降低水体²²⁴Ra比活度水平。但是,西太平洋和南海北部海域水体¹³⁷Cs比活度水平没有明显差异,台风导致的海流变化对水体¹³⁷Cs比活度没有明显影响。     

台风中降雨对中国高分3号合成孔径雷达观测信号的影响

Gaofen-3(GF-3), a Chinese civil synthetic aperture radar(SAR) at C-band, has operated since August 2016.Remarkably, several typhoons have been captured by GF-3 around the China Seas over its last two-year mission.In this study, six images acquired in Global Observation(GLO) and Wide ScanSAR(WSC) modes at verticalvertical(VV) polarization channel are discussed. This work focuses on investigating the observation of rainfall using GF-3 SAR. These images were collocated with winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF), significant wave height simulated from the WAVEWATCH-III(WW3) model, sea surface currents from climate forecast system version 2(CFSv2) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) and rain rate data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite. Sea surface roughness,was compared with the normalized radar cross section(NRCS) from SAR observations, and indicated a 0.8 correlation(COR). We analyzed the dependences of the difference between model-simulated NRCS and SARmeasured NRCS on the TRMM rain rate and WW3-simulated significant wave height. It was found that the effects of rain on SAR damps the radar signal at incidence angles ranging from 15° to 30°, while it enhances the radar signal at incidence angles ranging from 30° to 45° and incidence angles smaller than 10°. This behavior is consistent with previous studies and an algorithm for rain rate retrieval is anticipated for GF-3 SAR.     

海南岛东北部海岸极端波浪事件沉积记录

建立长时间尺度台风序列对于预测未来超强台风的活动规律具有重要科学和实践意义。历史上影响海南岛地区的台风十分频繁,但因缺少确切而详实的记载往往无法判断其是否为超强台风,因此迫切需要寻找千百年尺度的超强台风沉积记录。本文对海南岛东北部翁田镇沿海地区进行详细野外调查,选定白石堡海岸沙丘剖面为研究对象,在该沙丘剖面中识别出风暴越岸沉积和海滩岩巨砾沉积。根据沉积学分析和动力过程分析,这两种类型沉积极有可能是由历史上的台风事件形成,形成年代可能达到距今3 400 a;将该沉积层中的海滩岩巨砾与台风"威马逊"搬运的最大海滩岩巨砾进行对比,发现形成该沉积层海滩岩巨砾的台风事件强度应比台风"威马逊"更强,表明该区域历史上超强台风的存在,这对建立千百年尺度的台风序列有很重要的意义。同时,研究区岸外珊瑚岸礁发育良好,动力分析表明礁坪宽度对于波浪消减、海岸防护具有显著作用。然而,随着海南岛珊瑚岸礁日益衰亡、风暴强度逐渐加大和海面持续上升,未来海南岛地区的海岸极端风浪危害和海岸侵蚀形式威胁正日益加大,亟待加强海南岛珊瑚岸礁保护。     

超强厄尔尼诺事件次年台风生成偏晚原因分析

The 2015/2016 El Ni?o event reached the threshold of super El Ni?o event, and was comparable to the super events in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998. Interestingly, the tropical cyclones(TCs) were found to have very late onsets in the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events. This study discusses the causes of late TC onsets related with atmospheric circulation, disturbance sources and trigger mechanisms. The analysis shows that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) from January–June during the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events were stronger than the climatic mean, which resulted in a relatively stable atmospheric state by inhibiting deep convection. As a disturbance source, the April–June intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ) during the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events were significantly weaker than its climatic mean. The cross-equatorial flow and monsoon trough, as important TC generation triggers, were weaker from April–June during the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events, which further reduced the probability of TC generation. As for the late TC onsets, the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies(i.e., subtropical-high, the ITCZ, cross-equatorial flow, and monsoon trough) were more important. The cross-equatorial flow may take as predictor of TC onsets in the decaying years of the super El Ni?o events.