Impact of Assimilating Radiances with the WRFDA ETKF/3DVAR Hybrid System on Prediction of Two Typhoons in 2012

The impacts of AMSU-A and IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) radiances assimila-tion on the prediction of typhoons Vicente and Saola (2012) are studied by using the ensemble transform ...     

A diagnostic study of the asymmetric distribution of rainfall during the landfall of typhoon Haitang (2005)

The precipitation during landfall of typhoon Haitang (2005) showed asymmetric structures (left side/right side of the track). Analysis of Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation data showed that rainfall on the right side was more than 15 times stronger than on the left side. The causes were analyzed by focusing on comparing the water vapor flux, stability and upward motion between the two sides. The major results were as follows: (2) Relative humidity on both sides was over 80%, whereas the convergence of water vapor flux in the lower troposphere was about 10 times larger on the right side than on the left side. (5) Both sides featured conditional symmetric instability [MPV (moist potential vorticity) <0], but the right side was more unstable than the left side. (6) Strong (weak) upward motion occurred throughout the troposphere on the right (left) side. The Q vector diagnosis suggested that large-scale and mesoscale forcing accounted for the difference in vertical velocity. Orographic lift and surface friction forced the development of the asymmetric precipitation pattern. On the right side, strong upward motion from the forcing of different scale weather systems and topography caused a substantial release of unstable energy and the transportation of water vapor from the lower to the upper troposphere, which produced torrential rainfall. However, the above conditions on the left side were all much weaker, which led to weaker rainfall. This may have been the cause of the asymmetric distribution of rainfall during the landfall of typhoon Haitang.     

登陆台风边界层风廓线特征的地基雷达观测

为了分析登陆台风边界层风廓线特征,利用2004—2013年中国东南沿海新一代多普勒天气雷达收集的17个登陆台风资料,采用飓风速度体积分析方法,反演登陆台风的边界层风场结构特征。与探空观测对比表明,利用雷达径向风场可以准确地反演登陆台风的边界层风场结构,其风速误差小于2 m/s,风向误差小于5°。所有登陆台风合成的边界层风廓线显示,在近地层(100 m)以上,边界层风廓线存在类似急流的最大切向风,其高度均在1 km以上,显著高于大西洋观测到的飓风边界层急流高度(低于1 km)。陆地边界层内低层入流强度也明显大于过去海上观测,这主要是由陆地上摩擦增大引起。越靠近台风中心,边界层风廓线离散度越大,其中,径向风廓线比全风速以及切向风廓线离散度更大。将风廓线相对台风移动方向分为4个象限,分析边界层风廓线非对称特征显示,台风移动前侧入流层明显高于移动后侧。最大切向风位于台风移动左后侧,而台风右后侧没有显著的急流特征,与过去理想模拟的海陆差异导致的台风非对称分布特征一致。     

中央气象台台风强度综合预报误差分析

本文从总误差、逐年趋势、误差分布等方面对2001—2012年中央气象台（Central Meteorological Observatory, CMO）的台风（TC）强度综合预报水平进行分析,初步分析了强度迅速变化台风预报偏差大的原因。结果表明,强度预报水平没有明显改善,预报误差呈现逐年波动状态,强度稳定TC的预报误差最小,迅速加强TC的预报误差最大。24、96~120 h预报偏强的概率较大,而48~72 h预报偏弱的概率大。南海东北部等海域的预报误差较大,应在业务预报中特别予以关注。随着TC强度的逐渐增强,强度预报在120 h内预报偏强的可能性变大,而强度预报偏弱的可能性减小。根据误差分析结果,提出了一个强度概率预报方案,检验结果表明可在业务中参考使用。     

GPS掩星资料三维变分同化对台风模式预报的改进试验

本文尝试了GPSRO COSMIC资料在中尺度数值模式中的应用,利用COSMIC资料受云和降水影响较小,且有高数据精度、高垂直分辨率等优点,以改善模式初始场,进而提高预报准确度。模式采用中尺度气象模式WRF V3.0.1版本及其三维变分同化系统3DVAR,利用NCEP再分析资料、GTS资料和COSMIC资料对2009年第8号台风"莫拉克"登陆台湾岛前到登陆台湾岛的过程进行了模拟试验,并对温度、露点温度、对流有效位能等要素进行了诊断分析。试验结果表明:该项试验成功将COSMIC资料同化进模式,加深对"莫拉克"热力结构特征的了解,有效改善台风降水和路径预报,其中仅屏东县单点降水预报提高600 mm左右,24 h预报路径误差提高80 km以上。同时对提高台风强度预报起到积极作用。     

Impacts of sea spray on the boundary layer structure of Typhoon Imbudo

High winds in a typhoon over the ocean can produce substantial amounts of spray in the lower part of the atmospheric boundary layer, which can modify the transfer of momentum, heat, and moisture across the air-sea interface. However, the consequent effects on the boundary layer structure and the evolution of the typhoon are largely unknown. The focus of this paper is on the role of sea spray on the storm intensity and the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer. The case study is Typhoon Imbudo in July 2003. The results show that sea spray tends to intensify storms by increasing the sea surface heat fluxes. Moreover, the effects of sea spray are mainly felt in boundary layer. Spray evaporation causes the atmospheric boundary layer to experience cooling and moistening. Sea spray can cause significant effects on the structure of boundary layer. The boundary-layer height over the eyewall area east to the center of Typhoon Imbudo was increased with a maximum up to about 550 m due to sea spray, which is closely related with the enhancements of the heat fluxes, upward motions, and horizontal winds in this region due to sea spray.     

铁山湾内天文潮对风暴潮水位的影响研究

作为半封闭狭长海湾,铁山湾受风暴潮灾害的影响较为严重。根据多年观测资料和数值模型对铁山湾内的风暴潮水位特征进行了研究。观测资料表明海湾内风暴潮峰值水位受天文潮相位影响较为显著,然后基于ADCIRC风暴潮模型和1409号“威马逊”台风参数,定量评估了天文潮对风暴潮水位的影响。模拟结果表明当考虑天文潮作用时,会显著提高模拟结果精度,然后通过数值实验研究了风暴潮与不同相位天文潮相互作用时的水位变化特征。数值实验结果表明天文潮-风暴潮相互作用引起的非线性水位在涨潮阶段不明显,在高潮位时非线性水位达到负值最大;在落潮时达到正值最大。风暴潮增水峰值由于受到这种非线性效应的影响,在高潮位时数值最小。海湾内非线性作用要远大于外部,非线性效应越强,总水位峰值相对于天文潮高潮位的延迟时间也就越长。     

台风期间浮标和潜标上ADCP的空间变化、数据误差及校正#br#

基于南海北部浮标和潜标的声学多普勒流速剖面仪（ADCP）数据,通过一套几何算法计算了台风海鸥（1415）期间ADCP的空间变化和流速误差,并进行数据校正。浮标上,台风过后ADCP的水平位移最大可达2.61 km,水平流速误差最大可达0.27 m/s,垂向流速误差最大仅为5×10^-4 m/s;温跃层流速校正值在台风过后显著大于流速测值,这表明水平校正对于温跃层流速的质量控制很重要。潜标上,ADCP最大垂向位移增量为179 m,最大绳子倾角为35°,最大水平位移为1.5 km; ADCP水平流速误差和倾角误差都很小,在数据校正中可忽略不计,但对台风过后中层流速的垂向校正不能忽略。     

海洋风暴沉积的微体生物研究进展

微体生物和它们的化石在研究现代风暴和古风暴沉积方面是一个很好和有效的指标。本文综述了国内外近几十年来有关海洋风暴沉积研究中微体生物的应用。目前主要的研究成果集中在对古风暴层有孔虫、硅藻的研究上,而孢粉方面的研究较少。应用微体化石揭示地质历史时期古风暴的发生频率已较为成熟。但未来需提高古风暴重建的可靠性、准确性和精确性,以及探讨微体化石记录与风暴强度之间的相关关系。有关现代风暴过程中微体生物的研究稍显逊色,研究程度较低。了解现代风暴过程中不同沉积环境下微体生物的沉积特征、面貌,它们的形成和保存机制等将成为未来的研究热点和方向。     

Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.