Link between convection and meridional gradient of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal

We use daily satellite estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during 1998–2005 to show that onset of convection over the central Bay of Bengal (88–92°E, 14–18°N) during the core summer monsoon (mid-May to September) is linked to the meridional gradient of SST in the bay. The SST gradient was computed between two boxes in the northern (88–92°E, 18–22°N) and southern (82–88°E, 4–8°N) bay; the latter is the area of the cold tongue in the bay linked to the Summer Monsoon Current. Convection over central bay followed the SST difference between the northern and southern bay (ΔT) exceeding 0.75°C in 28 cases. There was no instance of ΔT exceeding this threshold without a burst in convection. There were, however, five instances of convection occurring without this SST gradient. Long rainfall events (events lasting more than a week) were associated with an SST event (ΔT ≥ 0.75°C); rainfall events tended to be short when not associated with an SST event. The SST gradient was important for the onset of convection, but not for its persistence: convection often persisted for several days even after the SST gradient weakened. The lag between ΔT exceeding 0.75°C and the onset of convection was 0–18 days, but the lag histogram peaked at one week. In 75% of the 28 cases, convection occurred within a week of ΔT exceeding the threshold of 0.75°C. The northern bay SST, T _N , contributed more to ΔT, but it was a weaker criterion for convection than the SST gradient. A sensitivity analysis showed that the corresponding threshold for T _N was 29°C. We hypothesise that the excess heating (∼1°C above the threshold for deep convection) required in the northern bay to trigger convection is because this excess in SST is what is required to establish the critical SST gradient.     

Holocene initiation and expansion of the southern margins of northern peatlands triggered by the East Asian summer monsoon recession

Northern peatlands represent one of the largest biospheric carbon reservoirs in the world. Their southern margins act as new carbon reservoirs, which can greatly influence the global carbon dynamics. However, the Holocene initiation, expansion and climate sensitivity of these peatlands remain intensely debated. Here we used a compilation of basal peat ages across six isolated peatlands at the southern margins of northern peatlands to address these issues. We found that the earliest initiation event of these peatlands occurred after the Younger Dryas (YD, 12,800–11,700 years ago) period. The second initiation event and rapid expansion occurred since 5 ka cal. BP. The recession of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the YD period and at around 5 ka cal. BP likely played a major role in controlling the initiation and expansion of these peatlands. The rapid expansion of these peatlands possibly contributed to the significant increases in atmospheric methane concentrations during the late Holocene because of the minerotrophic fens status and rapid expansion of them. These ecological processes are different from northern peatlands, indicating the special carbon sink and source implications of these peatlands in the global carbon cycle.     

天山山区近40a夏季降水变化及与南北疆的比较

利用新疆1959-1998年的降水资料,分析了天山山区近40a来夏季降水变化特征,并与南疆、北疆进行了比较.结果表明:天山山区近40a来的夏季降水在干湿阶段、最干最湿年份、降水变化的周期方面均与南北疆有别;天山山区夏季降水空间上的同步性变化比南疆及北疆弱一些;天山山区近40a来夏季降水年代际变化与北疆较为相近.新疆近40a来夏季降水最多的年代是90年代,天山山区偏多12%,南疆偏多25%,北疆偏多21%.     

基于年际增量法的卷积神经网络模型对中国夏季降水的预测研究

将前冬的500 hPa位势高度、向外长波辐射和海表温度的年际增量作为预测因子,建立基于卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Network, CNN)的非线性预测模型,对中国160个测站夏季降水展开预测研究,并与基于线性奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition, SVD)的预测模型进行效果对比。结果表明：CNN在1981—2020年的交叉检验中所回报的降水平均PS评分和距平相关系数(ACC)分别为74.33和0.12,比SVD高2.15和0.06,说明CNN比SVD在整体上对夏季降水具有更好的预测能力。其中,CNN对SVD预测较好年份的预测效果提升较为明显,对SVD预测较差的年份则改进不大。CNN对中国降水预测存在一定的系统性偏差,订正后CNN对拉尼娜年的降水预测改进较大。结果表明,基于年际增量法的CNN预测模型展示出较好的潜在应用价值。     

我国西北夏季风边界千年尺度变化的证据--来自盐池和猪野泽盐类矿物分析结果

我国夏季风西北缘是响应长尺度气候变化最为敏感的区域之一, 但夏季风边界变化与千年尺度气候变化之间的关系尚不明确, 相关研究仍缺乏足够证据。夏季风西北缘湖泊沉积物中盐类矿物种类与含量的时空变化, 有助于推测气候变化特征。盐池和猪野泽分别位于祁连山北麓的河西走廊中段和东段, 是研究长时间尺度亚洲夏季风影响区西北边界变化的关键区域。研究全新世千年尺度下, 夏季风西北边界的变化对夏季风西北缘气候变化过程的影响, 对明确季风边缘区千年尺度季风变化机制, 预测未来长尺度气候变化有重要意义。因此, 本文选择盐池古湖泊盐池剖面(YC), 猪野泽青土湖01、02剖面(QTH01、QTH02)等三个剖面, 开展全新世千年尺度下, 亚洲季风西北边界地区湖泊沉积物盐类矿物时空变化对比研究。结果显示:QTH01、QTH02剖面盐类矿物以碳酸盐为主, 硫酸盐类矿物仅零星出现, 而YC剖面硫酸盐类矿物含量相对较高, 同时出现了氯化物型矿物, 全新世气候特征整体较猪野泽更为干旱。末次冰期和早全新世, 三个剖面受季风输送水汽影响明显, 碳酸盐类矿物能较好沉积, 季风边界在这一时期向北扩张, 推进到祁连山中段地区;中全新世QTH01、QTH02剖面受夏季风影响减弱, 湖泊退缩, 碳酸盐类矿物含量达到峰值, YC剖面则表现出极端干旱的气候特征, 硫酸盐类矿物因“盐效应”含量下降, 此时夏季风西北部水汽输送边界位于石羊河流域和盐池流域之间;晚全新世盐池和猪野泽均以风成沉积为主, 气候干旱, 碳酸盐类矿物难以保存, 硫酸盐和氯化物矿物含量出现高值, 说明夏季风西北边界进一步向南迁移。综上所述, 盐类矿物含量变化能良好反应夏季风西北缘全新世气候变化特征, 同时证明, 在全新世千年尺度上, 夏季风西北边界在盐池流域和石羊河流域之间存在变化。     

甘肃省伏旱短期气候概率预测

用ＥＯＦ和ＲＥＯＦ将甘肃省信期降水分为７个区域,并在每个区域选取一个代表站,设计出既能反映伏期降水多少,又能反映伏期旱段长度的伏旱强度指数。将伏旱强度与指数与伏旱发生的概率关系起来,通过对大气环流特征指数,地面气象要素等因子的分析,利用逐步回归分析和多级逐步判别分析方法,建立了甘肃省几个代表站的伏期干旱指数和概率预测方程,提出了集成概率预测的概念,最后给出了对伏旱概念率预测进行评估一种方法。     

夏季高温期间空调房间人体舒适度研究

根据人体舒适度指标,考虑到温度和湿度的关系,研究了长江中下游地区夏季高温期间,没有减湿条件的空调房间的最佳降温幅度,并计算出有降温降湿条件的不同场所的最佳降温降湿幅度     

甘肃省河东地区伏旱的小波分析

该文阐述了小波变换的基本思路和优点,并对甘肃省河东地区1951～1995年伏期干旱强度指数分别用墨西哥帽型小波和Haar型小波进行了分析。结果表明：甘肃省河东地区的伏旱由不同尺度的振荡构成,中部地区的伏旱准19年的振荡周期较明显,有2个上升和2个下降阶段;陇东和陇南地区准22年和准10年的振荡周期较明显,有1个上升和2个下降阶段。对原时间序列进行了不同尺度的重构,说明小波分析可以用于滤波。     

Seesaw Pattern of Rainfall Anomalies between the Tropical Western North Pacific and Central Southern China during Late Summer

It is well known that suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) induces an anticyclonic anomaly,and this anticyclonic anomaly results in more rainfall along the East Asian rain band through more water vapor transport during summer, as well as early and middle summer. However, the present results indicate that during late summer(from mid-August to the beginning of September), the anomalous anticyclone leads to more rainfall over central southern China(CSC), a region quite different from preceding periods. The uniqueness of late summer is found to be related to the dramatic change in climatological monsoon flows: southerlies over southern China during early and middle summer but easterlies during late summer. Therefore, the anomalous anticyclone, which shows a southerly anomaly over southern China, enhances monsoonal southerlies and induces more rainfall along the rain band during early and middle summer. During late summer,however, the anomalous anticyclone reflects a complicated change in monsoon flows: it changes the path, rather than the intensity, of monsoon flows. Specifically, during late summers of suppressed convection in the tropical WNP, southerlies dominate from the South China Sea to southern China, and during late summers of enhanced convection, northeasterlies dominate from the East China Sea to southern China, causing more and less rainfall in CSC, respectively.