夏季降雨事件对水库温室气体通量变化的影响:来自湖北官庄水库的高频观测

湖库淡水水域对温室气体排放的贡献不容小觑,然而观测时间的代表性不足以及缺乏对降雨因素的考虑制约了碳排放的准确估计.本研究以湖北宜昌境内官庄水库为例,选取强降雨多发的夏季时段,针对水气界面温室气体通量、水体表层和垂向剖面气体溶存浓度及环境因子开展了为期1周的原位高频观测,以探讨夏季降雨事件对水库温室气体通量变化的影响.结果表明,观测期内官庄水库水气界面CH₄通量变化范围为0.007~0.077 mg/（m²·h）,CO₂通量范围为5.48~57.57 mg/（m²·h）,白天和夜晚均表现为大气的碳源.小雨、中雨乃至暴雨天气条件下,CH₄和CO₂日均通量均较低,日通量倾向于受风速和温度调控.CH₄和CO₂通量变化趋势较为一致,观测期内日间排放量高于夜间排放量出现的次数更多,昼夜差异对降雨天气状况无明显响应,风速是CH₄和CO₂通量昼夜变化的主导因素.暴雨过程中,CH₄-k₆₀₀和CO₂-k₆₀₀与水气温差存在显著正相关,但水体垂向混合过程十分短暂.在平均雨强为3.8 mm/h的暴雨第I阶段,CH₄-k₆₀₀对风速和降雨的响应明显,而在雨强更大（8.5 mm/h）的第II阶段,CH₄-k₆₀₀与风速、降雨均未表现出相关性,通量箱在强降雨条件下的适用性可能存在雨强阈值.     

气候系统对CO2强迫和太阳辐射强迫在不同时间尺度的响应

使用HadCM3L气候模式,针对突然增加的4倍CO₂浓度和增加4%的太阳辐射强迫进行一系列理想化模拟试验,分析并比较了CO₂强迫和太阳辐射强迫对气候系统的影响机制和异同。模拟结果表明,突然增加的4倍CO₂浓度和增加4%的太阳辐射造成的长期全球表面平均温度变化基本相同,但二者造成降水的变化差异很大。气候系统对CO₂和太阳辐射的响应可以分为快响应和慢响应两个部分,而降水的差异主要体现在大约1个月时间尺度内的快响应阶段,在这一时间段,陆地区域CO₂的气孔效应减少了植被的蒸腾作用,导致降水受到抑制;海洋区域CO₂的辐射效应会首先导致大气长波吸收增强,而海洋的比热较大,所以海表温度变化落后于低层大气,低层大气的垂直稳定度增加,海表向上蒸发受到抑制。此外,比较不同时间尺度上CO₂对气候系统的影响,可以发现在1个月的短时间尺度上,对陆地而言,CO₂的气孔效应对气候系统的影响占主导地位,但在数年以上更长的时间尺度上,CO₂的辐射效应是导致地气系统温度升高的主要原因。     

Convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions: implications and meta-analysis

There is a rich empirical literature testing whether per capita carbon dioxide emissions tend to converge over time and across countries. This article provides a meta-analysis of the results from this research, and discusses how carbon emissions convergence may be understood in, for instance, the presence of international knowledge spillovers and policy convergence. The results display evidence of either divergence or persistent gaps at the global level, but convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions between richer industrialized countries. However, the results appear sensitive to the choice of data sample and choice of convergence concept, e.g. stochastic convergence versus β-convergence. Moreover, peer-reviewed studies have a higher likelihood of reporting convergence in carbon dioxide emissions compared to non-refereed work.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The empirical basis for an egalitarian rule of equal emissions per capita in the design of global climate agreements is not solid; this supports the need to move beyond single allocation rules, and increase knowledge about the impacts of combined scenarios. However, even in the context of the 2015 Paris Agreement with its emphasis on voluntary contributions and ‘national circumstances’, different equity-based principles could serve as useful points of reference for how the remaining carbon budget should be allocated.     

Interannual variation of atmospheric CO2 concentration

A method is described for the analysis of the interannual variability of background atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The analysis is carried out on the data from 6 observatories for which records of >8 years were available.A global-scale interannual variation of CO₂ concentration in the troposphere with a characteristic time-scale of 2–3 years has been confirmed throughout the period of the records. These variations are estimated to be associated with carbon cycle imbalances of 2–3 Gt or annual net exchanges between the atmosphere and another carbon reservoir(s) at a rate of about 1.2 Gt of carbon per year. Lag correlations and amplitude comparisons between the records suggests a low latitude southern hemisphere origin to this phenomenon.The interannual variations of CO₂ increase are found to be correlated with those observed in data for Pacific sea surface temperatures and Pacific witd stress, the Southern Oscillation Index and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. However multiple regression studies found that once the Southern Oscillation index is used as an explanatory variable for CO₂ variations, the inclusion of additional geophysical variables does not give any significant improvement in the regression.     

Transformation of Aerosol Chemical Properties due to Transport Over a City

The change of the chemical composition of the near-ground level atmospheric aerosol was studied during two summer episodes by a Lagrangian type of experimental approach. Bulk and single-particle chemical analyses of ions and elements in the particulate phase were deployed. N(-III) and N(V) components were also measured in the gas-phase. The measurements were completed by particle size distributions.Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) and fine particles of ≈0.2–0.4 μm size were still elevated 50 km downwind of the city. The direct comparison of transport over the city in contrast to transport over the surrounding areas showed that SIA was formed from emission from the city within less than 3 h. Relative increases, i.e., enrichment during transport were observed for primary and secondary aerosol components. The degree of mixing on the individual particle level increased significantly during transport in the area. In particular, newly emitted carbonaceous particles became internally mixed within hours with pre-existing sulphate particles. Mostly due to secondary aerosol formation the average particle size (mass median diameter) of major constituents of the aerosol was significantly decreased while being transported over 13 h. Given recent insights which link fine particles number and mass concentrations with health risks, the results suggest that rural populations in areas which frequently are located within an urban plume might run an elevated health risk relative to populations in areas not affected by urban plumes.     

气候变化对我国小麦地理分布的潜在影响

根据GCM模拟结果，分析了CO2增加对我国小麦生产地理分布的潜在影响。结果表明:在加倍CO2气候下，我国小麦生产区将进一步向北和向西扩展，小麦栽培特点和品种类型也有较大变化。气候增暖可能对东北地区产生有利影响，但在中部和南部则可能产生高温应力。小麦生长期间平均温度的升高，特别是收获前的高温可能会增加对更早熟、更耐热品种的需求。     

Correction Of Eddy-Covariance Measurements Incorporating Both Advective Effects And Density Fluxes

Equations are presented to correct eddy-covariancemeasurements for both fluctuations in density andnon-zero mean advection, induced by convergence ordivergence of flow, and spatial source/sinkinhomogeneity, under steady-state and transientconditions. This correction collapses to theWebb–Pearman–Leuning expression ifthe mean vertical velocity is zero, and formally addsthe Webb–Pearman–Leuning expression to the correctionssuggested by Lee for conditions ofnon-zero vertical velocity and source/sink and meanscalar horizontal homogeneity. The equation requiresmeasurement of the mean vertical gradients of thescalar concentration of interest (air temperature,humidity, CO₂) as well as an accurateestimation of the mean vertical velocity, in additionto the vertical eddy covariance of the scalar. Simplemethods for the approximation of sensor tilt andcomplex terrain flow angle are presented, to allowestimation of non-zero mean vertical velocities. Theequations are applied to data from a maize crop and aforest to give examples of when the correction issignificant. In addition, a term for thethermodynamic expansion energy associated with watervapour flux is derived, which implies that the sonictemperature derived sensible heat flux will accuratelyinclude this contribution.     

Sulfur dioxide in rain clouds: Gas-liquid scavenging efficiencies and wet deposition rates in the presence of formaldehyde

The interaction of formaldehyde with SO₂ dissolved in the aqueous phase of clouds leads to the formation of hydroxymethane sulfonate. The impact of this process upon the gas-liquid equilibrium distribution of SO₂ in rain clouds and the ensuing wet SO₂ precipitation rate is explored. Model vertical SO₂ distributions are derived from observational data for three atmospheric regions: continental polluted, continental remote, and marine. The wet deposition rate for SO₂ in the polluted atmosphere increases by about a factor of two in the presence of formaldehyde compared with its absence. The effect is much stronger in the remote atmosphere leading to a potentially significant enhancement of wet SO₂ deposition. In the marine atmosphere, wet deposition of SO₂ may contribute as much as 35% to the total removal rate for SO₂ by all processes including dry deposition and chemical conversion to sulfate.     

金、硅和硫化物迁移富集层次性模拟实验与构造机制研究

深部金品位变化规律与构造间关系是隐伏矿体定位预测的难点。采用高温高压模拟实验对硫化物、硅和金分别进行迁移、富集层次性研究, 表明矿体与矿体、矿床与矿床垂向间距约是水平间距的１２ ～１５ 倍, 金品位在不同层次间呈贫富交替变化。该认识在激电法基础上进行成矿定位预测已初见成效。此外, 从构造增热、构造变异、构造流体、构造降压和构造耦合５ 个方面对成矿元素迁移、富集层次性的构造机制进行探讨, 指出构造机制与矿质来源存在密切关系, 它有助于动力成岩成矿理论的进一步深化     

世界排放大国CO2排放和GDP的格兰杰因果分析及其对国际气候治理的影响和意义

基于1990—2015年世界前20个排放大国碳排放量和国内生产总值（GDP）的时间序列数据,采用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验,对主要排放大国碳排放与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。通过协整分析得出大多数国家的碳排放量与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;碳排放量和GDP的格兰杰检验结果显示,大多数世界排放大国碳排放与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系。发达国家主要表现为经济增长是碳排放的格兰杰原因,发展中国家则主要表现为碳排放是经济增长的格兰杰原因。研究结果反映了发达国家和发展中国家在碳减排问题上的阶段性特征,碳减排对发展中国家经济发展的负面影响明显大于发达国家。基于格兰杰因果分析结果,国际气候治理进程中关于要求发展中国家现阶段提出大幅减排目标的诉求不符合发展中国家发展阶段特征,可能影响发展中国家经济发展的正常秩序和规律。发达国家基于历史排放责任、发展阶段和能力,都应该带头开展减排行动,并帮助发展中国家实现转型、升级发展,降低经济发展对碳排放的依赖。国际气候治理需要根据并考虑不同国家的发展需求和特征,形成国际合作制度安排,实现社会经济发展与全球气候治理的协同。