1997年伽师地震临震预报的经验与启示

１９９７年１￣４月新疆伽师发生罕见的强震群活动。几个月内在十分狭小的区域内发生７次６级强震,是新疆几十年来从未遇到过的。概述了伽师地震３次准确和较为准确的临震预报;总结了地点已知的后续强震临震预报的科学和实践问题;论述了震例总结与现实预报的差异,以及地震孕育的复杂性和地震预报的现实做法。     

干支60周期及可公度性与江苏—南黄海地区地震预测

根据１５００年以来的地震资料分析,江苏－南黄海地区Ｍ≥５中强震具有显著的干支６０周期性特征,南黄海海域Ｍ≥６强震具有良好的可公度性,并对其基本结构和预测功能进行了研究。未来几年该区依然存在５￣６级地震的危险性,第二活跃幕可能将持续到２００９年前后。     

Prediction of strong ground motion at EURO-SEISTEST site using the empirical Green's function method

This paper presents some tests on the empirical Green's function method, performed in order to check its effectiveness to predict strong ground motion during future large earthquakes. These investigations basically consist of blind or pseudo-blind tests using part of the data set obtained at the Volvi (Greece) test-site within the framework of the EURO-SEISTEST project. In a first step, a moderate event (M_L=4.1) is simulated by using a small event (M_L=2.5), and taking into account the a priori knowledge of the relevant source parameters (magnitude and stress-drop) for both the base and target events. This check emphasizes the sensitivity of the prediction to the stress-drop values. In a second step, a pseudo-blind prediction is carried out in which the information on the target event is only the magnitude (M_L=5.3) besides the geometrical parameters such as source location, strike and dip. The other important parameters (seismic moment, fault area, stress-drop) are determined on the basis of specific empirical scaling laws derived from several small and moderate events occurring in the area. The synthetic motions are computed for two nearby sites, which are located on the southern edge and in the center of the Mygdonian graben, respectively, and correspond to much different site conditions: weathered rock and thick sediments. They are found in good agreement with the observations, which were unveiled after the simulation. In particular, the amplitude and the phase of the late, local surface waves generated on the southern edge of the graben, are very well reproduced at valley center. Finally, the last step is an attempt to predict strong ground motion for a hypothetical large earthquake of magnitude M_L=6.5. The results are shown to depend very significantly on the scaling laws.     

Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: Equifinality of model structure (1)

In a special opportunity, detailed measurements of the flow in an overbank flow in the Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford were used in conjunction with tracer test data to assess the effectiveness of dispersion models based around random particle tracking (RPT). Ten different RPT models based on different assumptions and levels of information about the nature of the Lagrangian velocity field were investigated. Multiple simulations were used to calibrate variable parameters controlling the average magnitude of the perturbations for each model by comparison with observed concentrations at one cross-section. The calibrated models were then used to predict concentration distributions further downstream. Several of the calibrated models showed close agreement between observed and predicted concentration distributions. The most complex models using the most information about the velocity distributions were no better (and in some cases worse) in prediction than the simplest models investigated. It would appear that our knowledge of the system, despite the quality of the experiments, is too uncertain to infer a precise model structure.     

风暴的自动识别,跟踪与预报

利用多普勒雷达体扫描资料对风暴进行实时地自动识别、跟踪、结构分析和临近预报,风暴的识别基于其个连续区域的体积和雷达反射率大于给定的体积阈值和反射率阈值;用矩心跟踪法匹配相邻两时刻的风暴,对风暴的合并与分裂进行了处理;根据风暴在过去各个时刻的中心位置和体积,利用最小二乘法进行线性外推来预报其在下一时刻的位置和面积。结果表明本方法能较好地识别、跟踪和警戒强对流性天气。     

Relation between macroseismic intensity and instrumental parameters of strong motions — A statistical approach

One hundred and twenty-eight strong ground motion CALTECH (Earthquakes in the U.S.A., 1940–1971) records of five Californian earthquakes, recorded at ground level and in basements, for which the modified Mercalli macroseismic intensities are known, were statistically processed to calculate 165 wave parameters. Correlation of the peak values of particle acceleration, velocity and displacement, energy, impulse and root-mean-square amplitude of the vibrations, durations of vibrations for certain levels of the peak amplitude, and spectral energies of 10 frequency windows with macroseismic intensity are discussed from the viewpoint of classification of ground-motion records.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia 1988.     

华北强震时-空变化某些特点与近期强震活动趋势

本文利用华北丰富的震史资料,分析该区强震活动时-空变化某些特点。并以此为依据,对近期强震活动趋势作出判断。文章最后部分还对华北地区最近两个活动期的强震活动水平的巨大差异的可能原因,从构造和介质条件等方面作些初浅讨论     

模拟研究卫-卫跟踪中星间隔的选择问题

从两要从两个方面讨论了低轨卫星在做卫-卫跟踪(SST)观测时,星间隔的选择问题．1)用地球重力位系数作为扰动量,比较该扰动引起的不同间隔的SST星间距离和速度变化大小．2)用随机误差为1μm／s的星间速度变化作为模拟观测量,恢复不同间隔的地球重力位系数,并做精度评估．两种结果表明,适当增大SST间隔对求解重力场有利,但无限制增大无实际意义,对于选定高度为420km卫星,在作SST观测时,星间隔不宜超过690km,此模拟方法及结果对我国确定重力卫星指标有着重要意义．     

研究局部场地条件对地震动影响的响嘡遥测台阵

对原有的响嘡三维场地条件影响台阵进行了扩建改造。增设了一个深度为47m的测井,对钻孔土样进行了土动力学测试,弥补了缺乏详细土层特性资料的缺陷。新老测井观测点均架设了电话线路,实现了观测中心与台阵之间的远程监控和数据传输。已经获取的一批中小地震近场记录可以用来进行盲测研究。     

The 1986 Dharamsala earthquake of Himachal Himalaya – estimates of source parameters,average intrinsic attenuation and site amplification functions

The 26th April 1986 Dharamsala earthquake (m_b 5.5) occurred in the Kangra region of Himachal Himalaya, which lies in the rupture zone of great Kangra earthquake of 1905. This was the first moderate sized earthquake to be recorded at a few sites of the strong ground motion array in the NW Himalaya. The accelerograms of this earthquake have been used to estimate its source parameters, site amplification functions and to estimate the effective shear wave attenuation factor Q_β in the frontal region of Himachal Himalaya. A double couple fault plane solution for the earthquake has been obtained based on the spectra of the transverse component of the accelerograms. The estimated values of the source parameters are seismic moment: 2.1×10²⁴ dyne-cm, static stress drop (Δσ): 36 bars, source radius (r): 2.8 km and moment magnitude (M_w): 5.4. The estimated average values of effective shear wave attenuation factor Q_β for various sites are in the range of 125 to 300 with an overall spatial average of 239. The influence of local site effects on the observed PGA values have been examined on the basis of site amplification functions.