东海区近海强风预报模式

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。     

一个南海热带气旋发展的环流特征分析

本文用ECMWF2.5×2.5网格点资料通过一个例子,对有利于南海热带气旋发展的环流场作了详细的分析,发现几点事实:(1)扰动在风的垂直切变较大的环境中仍可发展。(2)扰动位于中、低空西南急流左侧,高空南支东风急流右侧时,有利发展。(3)中,低空西南急流形成了扰动环流的强风潮,强风潮从扰动南侧入角,并包围扰动的东半圆。(4)扰动中、低层的入流和高层的外流呈现严重的不对称性。(5)当扰动发展到一定强度时,对南海热带季风环流圈的加强起到正反馈作用。     

Estuary/ocean exchange and tidal mixing in a Gulf of Maine Estuary: A Lagrangian modeling study

A Lagrangian particle method embedded within a 2-D finite element code, is used to study the transport and ocean–estuary exchange processes in the well-mixed Great Bay Estuarine System in New Hampshire, USA. The 2-D finite element model, driven by residual, semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal constituents, includes the effects of wetting and drying of estuarine mud flats through the use of a porous medium transport module. The particle method includes tidal advection, plus a random walk model in the horizontal that simulates sub-grid scale turbulent transport processes. Our approach involves instantaneous, massive [O(500,000)] particle releases that enable the quantification of ocean–estuary and inter-bay exchanges in a Markovian framework. The effects of the release time, spring–neap cycle, riverine discharge and diffusion strength on the intra-estuary and estuary–ocean exchange are also investigated.The results show a rather dynamic interaction between the ocean and the estuary with a fraction of the exiting particles being caught up in the Gulf of Maine Coastal Current and swept away. Three somewhat different estimates of estuarine residence time are calculated to provide complementary views of estuary flushing. Maps of residence time versus release location uncover a strong spatial dependency of residence time within the estuary that has very important ramifications for local water quality. Simulations with and without the turbulent random walk show that the combined effect of advective shear and turbulent diffusion is very effective at spreading particles throughout the estuary relatively quickly, even at low (1 m²/s) diffusivity. The results presented here show that a first-order Markov Chain approach has applicability and a high potential for improving our understanding of the mixing processes in estuaries.     

Robust adaptive control of underactuated ships on a linear course with comfort

This paper addresses an important problem in ship control application—the robust stabilization of underactuated ships on a linear course with comfort. Specifically, we develop a multivariable controller to stabilize ocean surface ships without a sway actuator on a linear course and to reduce roll and pitch simultaneously. The controller adapts to unknown parameters of the ship and constant environmental disturbances induced by wave, ocean current and wind. It is also robust to time-varying environmental disturbances, time-varying change in ship parameters and other motions of the ship such as surge and heave. The roll and pitch can be made arbitrarily small while the heading angle and sway are kept to be in reasonably small bounds. The controller development is based on Lyapunov’s direct method and backstepping technique. A Lipschitz continuous projection algorithm is used to update the estimate of the unknown parameters to avoid the parameters’ drift due to time-varying environmental disturbances. Simulations on a full-scale catamaran illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed controller.     

沃克环流上升区赤道低空强西风带的分析

采用ＴＯＧＡ／ＣＯＡＲＥ国际合作考察期间（１９９２年１０月─１９９３年２月）获得的２６７次定点（２°Ｓ，１５５°Ｅ）定时高空大气探测资料，进行计算分析，发现１９９２年１２月─１９９３年２月低空存在一支西风急流，有两次分别持续半月之久，而１９９２年１１月的两次赤道西风急流，因无赤道高空急流配合，仅持续２ｄ便消失。本文还指出：（１）赤道低空西风急流是各种海－气指数产生ＥＮＳＯ异常的重要信息；（２）赤道高空急流有滞后赤道低空急流２ｄ左右的响应关系；（３）赤道低空急流是纬向水汽输送的狭窄通道。     

好望角附近海域春季大风的几种主要形势分析

通过普查和分析，概括出了春季好望角附近海域三种主要大风出现时的模型图，并以一个月中逐日4次船舶测风报告为例，分析了好望角大风的某些主要特征。     

台风"杜鹃"影响期间福建大风天气的特点及成因

台风“杜鹃”影响期间，福建大风天气出现的比较早，而且范围比较大．本文通过对天气尺度的环境场、具有代表性的单站资料的对比分析，寻求大风出现的原因．还深入利用MM5模式对台风的气压场、风场、流场等进行数值模拟，分析结果表明台湾地形倒槽的形成对此次大风天气出现有着重要的作用，此外从流场分型的角度进一步分析台湾地形倒槽的形成原因．     

Twelve years of tracking 52-Hz whale calls from a unique source in the North Pacific

A unique whale call with 50–52 Hz emphasis from a single source has been tracked over 12 years in the central and eastern North Pacific. These calls, referred to as 52-Hz calls, were monitored and analyzed from acoustic data recorded by hydrophones of the US Navy Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) and other arrays. The calls were noticed first in 1989, and have been detected and tracked since 1992. No other calls with similar characteristics have been identified in the acoustic data from any hydrophone system in the North Pacific basin. Only one series of these 52-Hz calls has been recorded at a time, with no call overlap, suggesting that a single whale produced the calls. The calls were recorded from August to February with most in December and January. The species producing these calls is unknown. The tracks of the 52-Hz whale were different each year, and varied in length from 708 to 11,062 km with travel speeds ranging from 0.7 to 3.8 km/h. Tracks included (A) meandering over short ranges, (B) predominantly west-to-east movement, and (C) mostly north-to-south travel. These tracks consistently appeared to be unrelated to the presence or movement of other whale species (blue, fin and humpback) monitored year-round with the same hydrophones.     

洋浦近岸海域污染控制规划方案优化——Ⅰ.排污口位置优选

在洋浦近岸海域计算潮流场基础上,计算预选排污口附近海水质点运动轨迹及预测污染物浓度分布,最后,从环保角度出发,推荐了洋浦地区各开发区的排污口位置,为洋浦近岸海域污染控制规划方案的制定及其优化提供了依据。