New fuzzy neural network–Markov model and application in mid- to long-term runoff forecast

ABSTRACT

In this paper, a mid- to long-term runoff forecast model is developed using an ideal point fuzzy neural network–Markov (NFNN-MKV) hybrid algorithm to improve the forecasting precision. Combining the advantages of the new fuzzy neural network and the Markov prediction model, this model can solve the problem of stationary or volatile strong random processes. Defined error statistics algorithms are used to evaluate the performance of models. A runoff prediction for the Si Quan Reservoir is made by utilizing the modelling method and the historical runoff data, with a comprehensive consideration of various runoff-impacting factors such as rainfall. Compared with the traditional fuzzy neural networks and Markov prediction models, the results show that the NFNN-MKV hybrid algorithm has good performance in faster convergence, better forecasting accuracy and significant improvement of neural network generalization. The absolute percentage error of the NFNN-MKV hybrid algorithm is less than 7.0%, MSE is less than 3.9, and qualification rate reaches 100%. For further comparison of the proposed model, the NFNN-MKV model is employed to estimate (training and testing for 120-month-ahead prediction) and predict river discharge for 156 months at Weijiabao on the Weihe River in China. Comparisons among the results of the NFNN-MKV model, the WNN model and the SVR model indicate that the NFNN-MKV model is able to significantly increase prediction accuracy.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei     

太古宙花岗质岩石Si-O同位素对岩石成因和板块构造的约束

板块构造的起源是地球科学核心问题之一, 而表壳物质循环是现代板块构造的重要表现之一, 因此检验地球表壳物质循环起始时间是约束板块构造启动时间的重要切入点。近年来, 岩浆岩的Si-O同位素联合示踪开始被用来约束太古宙构造环境, 但由于大多太古宙样品经历了强烈的变质作用, Si同位素数据是否代表原岩信息需要进一步的评估; 此外, Si同位素在高温岩浆分异过程中变化非常小, 在分析精度不够高的情况下, 其分析结果则很可能无法揭示其潜在的变化规律。本文结合当前地球早期构造环境研究进展以及Si-O同位素的应用情况: (1)重点总结介绍了太古宙花岗质岩石(主要包括英云闪长岩-奥长花岗岩-花岗闪长岩; 简称TTG)的Si同位素应用原理, 及应用Si-O同位素约束地球早期构造环境的优势; (2)分析了目前研究中存在的问题, 并给出了具体的改进建议和方法; (3)进一步总结了太古宙TTG Si同位素和全球规模的O同位素, Ge/Si比值, 及其他地质学和地球化学指标, 确认了在大约3.8 Ga开始有表壳物质再循环特征的出现; (4)最后依据当前的研究进展, 提出了未来具体研究方向。

     

Calculation of the configurational entropy of Al, Si in layer silicates using the cluster variation method

Entropies of Al-Si in layer silicates have been calculated using a series of CVM approximations for the honeycomb lattice. The parameters of the models have been constrained by ²⁹Si NMR data. The results of low order approximations such as “pair” and “star” have been rejected because of their low accuracy at high Al/(Al+Si) ratios. Reasonably accurate results have been achieved with the help of the “hexagon” and “star-hexagon” approximations. Received: 31 October 1997 / Revised, accepted: 17 April 1998     

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用于探测X射线的锂漂移型硅探测器需在液氮条件下低温保存和使用,因此限制了其应用范围.介绍了一种采用电致冷方式的新型半导体探测器,并通过把液氮致冷的Si(Li)探测器与电致冷的Si-PIN探测器进行比较,论证了电致冷方法的可行性.     

Ge/Si and Sr/Sr tracers of weathering reactions and hydrologic pathways in a tropical granitoid system

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文公岭沸石的矿物学研究

本文研究了文公岭的辉沸石和片沸石，对二者的形态、物性、化学组成、晶胞参数等进行了观测，指出二者在红外光谱图上的区别．对片沸石的Ｓｉ／Ａｌ、含水量等作了详细研究。探讨了以上两种沸石在角砾岩中的分带及成因．     

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利用碳氧比规范化处理,将碳氧比值限制在广义动态范围之内解决零值漂移问题,使用通用解释模型处理碳氧比资料。利用试验数据分析了碳氧比能谱测井零值漂移与产额的关系。建立了高精度碳氧比能谱精细解释标准。在精细研究和动态分析的基础上,结合多种测井资料,综合评价储层,取得了很好的地质效果。该方法实际处理了大庆、辽河等油田的多口井,效果表明,该解释方法的综合解释符合率在80%以上。