Natural disasters as the end of the insurance industry? Scalar competitive strategies, Alternative Risk Transfers, and the economic crisis

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has piqued interest in the insurance industry, and this scrutiny has led to assumptions that the industry has become unstable and unprofitable with the increased incidence of disasters in highly-insured regions of the world. This paper challenges that assumption by arguing that the insurance industry has responded by spreading risk through scaled and networked recovery schemes. We found that because of competitive strategies of risk-spreading and displacement arrangements, the industry has actually profited as a whole. Regional insurance companies have always relied on the higher financial scales of the reinsurance industry in Munich, Zurich, and London. But with claims reaching into the billions of dollars, the reinsurance industry itself has raised premiums, spread risk farther afield, and jumped scale by spreading risk to futures markets called Alternative Risk Transfers (ARTs). However, the recession beginning in 2008 has called into question the viability of using futures markets as insurance. It is shown through a media analysis of four major business publications (The Economist, The New York Times, The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal) how the industry responded to the costs of the 2004, 2005, and 2006 hurricane seasons. Because geography is rather new to this literature, this paper also offers a broad review of the insurance industry.     

长江流域“2017·07”暴雨洪水分析

2017年6月下旬至7月初,受持续强降雨影响,长江发生中游区域性大洪水。以实时报汛数据为基础,分析长江"2017·07"暴雨洪水特性,依据洪峰水位判断,强降雨导致洞庭湖水系湘江发生超历史最高水位特大洪水,资水、沅江发生超保证水位大洪水,洞庭湖超过保证水位;鄱阳湖水系乐安河上游发生超历史最高水位特大洪水,昌江、乐安河中下游、修水发生10a一遇较大洪水,鄱阳湖超过警戒水位;长江干流莲花塘以下江段全线超过警戒水位。在应对此次洪水过程中,长江上中游重点水库防洪效益十分明显,有效避免中游干流莲花塘至螺山江段超保,缩短洞庭湖城陵矶站超保时间6d左右。     

水库渗流影响文物遗址安全发掘研究——以湖南里耶秦代古城遗址为例

与古遗址相邻的江、河由于后期的工程活动,如水库、大坝的修建和蓄水,水位上升,将对遗址区地下水的运动规律及渗流场产生较大影响。在其影响下,古遗址可能产生各种环境地质灾害并对其发掘安全产生不利影响。论文以国家重点文物——湖南里耶秦代古城遗址安全发掘深度研究为例,在分析水库蓄水诱发的环境地质灾害的基础上,对遗址在不同库水位下的安全发掘深度及发掘方案进行了研究,提出了保障发掘安全的工程措施。研究成果为国家重点文物的保护和进一步发掘提供了科学依据。对类似文物工程的保护和发掘具有借鉴意义。     

四川大光包-黄洞子沟特大泥石流基本特征、成因及危险性评价

2013年7月8~10日四川省由于普降暴雨,发生多起泥石流、滑坡等地质灾害。在野外调查的基础上,对大光包-黄洞子沟特大泥石流形成原因进行分析,对未来发展趋势做出预测和危险性评价。调查结果表明:1大光包-黄洞子沟泥石流属于典型的沟谷型泥石流,可分为形成区-流通区-堆积区。2本次泥石流形成原因为体积高达1×108 m3以上的松散的大光包滑坡堆积体提供物源;极端的降雨气候直接启动松散堆积物形成泥石流;地形条件有利于泥石流侵蚀、搬运和堆积,为典型的滑坡-碎屑流-泥石流型,且仍处于活跃期,并在今后会有加强的趋势。3经过对大光包-黄洞子沟泥石流进行危险度评价可知:该泥石流危险度为0.482,属于中度危险泥石流。     

乐山城市地质灾害分区评价及管理体系研究

随着城市化进程的加快,城市人口不断增多,城市工程建设活动日趋活跃,对城市地质环境影响也越来越大.本文通过对乐山市人口、地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、区域稳定性等的综合分析,实现对乐山市城市环境地质中的地质灾害危险性分区评价,给出乐山城市地质灾害管理建议,为乐山城市安全运行及可持续发展提供依据.     

Climatic Versus Tectonic Control on Storm Cyclicity in Mesoproterozoic Koldaha Shale, Vindhyan Supergroup, Central India

The 1.2 Ga-old Koldaha shale, central India reveals three orders of depositional cyclicities in its basal storm-dominated shelf succession. Visual appraisal as well as Fourier and MEM analyses concurs in this respect. Only the major storm events at intervals of a few thousands of years have left recognizable imprints. Interbedding of storm sandstones and fairweather shales is apparently climate-controlled. Packaging of about seven such climatic cycles results the second-order cyclicity befitting eccentricity cycles of contemporary scale. Nonetheless, for the erratic storm bed-thickness trends within the cycles some other factor/s might have played a role. The third order cycles are, more dominantly, correlatable with basinal tectonics.     

娄底地区环境地质灾害问题初探

娄底地区环境地质灾害较严重。主要有地震、地裂、塌陷、滑坡、水土流失和水污染等。这些灾害的形成除受天然状态下的第一地质环境影响外,主要与第二环境即开矿、建厂、修路及兴修水和等人类活动有关。针对各类灾害及其危害性,提出了防治对策与建议。     

城市次降雨径流污染负荷计算方法

城镇地表径流污染是地表水体污染的主要原因,也是城镇河流的主要污染源之一,其识别和控制是目前城市水环境治理的重要内容。沙河是长江的二级支流,流经宜昌市某区,水体水质较差。以该区为研究对象,将其分为不同下垫面,通过监测次降雨不同时段各种下垫面地表径流中污染物浓度,建立地表径流污染物负荷估算方法,估算地表径流中污染物负荷量,为城市非点源污染削减和城市河流污染治理提供依据。     

Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.     

武安团城铁矿矿山环境恢复治理研究及对策

武安市团城铁矿系国有矿山,多年来为国家做出了一定的贡献;20世纪80年代以来,又对数家地方矿山进行采矿。由于采矿弃渣乱放和坑下开采造成地面沉降、塌陷、地裂缝,直接威胁着矿山的正常发展,危及周边村庄的经济、环境和民众的生命安全。通过详细的调查和实测,广泛地收集了各方面资料,因地制宜,提出以废渣部分充填地面塌陷、地裂缝;覆土造林,争取绿化面积超过90%。建设成为集典型地质灾害遗迹观察研究与生态观赏旅游为一体的绿色矿山,把矿产资源开发对环境的破坏降到最低限度,实现资源开发与生态环境的协调发展。