基于GWR模型的中国区域旅行社业效率空间分异及动力机制分析

基于DEA模型对中国31个省域的旅行社业效率空间分异特征进行了分析,首次运用GWR模型探索交通、资本、人才、信息化和经济动力对区域旅行社业效率影响的空间差异。结果表明：旅行社业效率在空间上具有正相关性和集聚特征,空间格局从“川”字型向“山”字型转变。各动力因子的系数均存在空间非平稳性。资本和人才动力的回归系数在空间分布上从南向北依次递减;经济动力的分布趋势为从北向南依次递减;交通动力对中西部地区旅行社效率提升的促进作用显著于东部地区;信息化动力则在东部地区表现出较强的促进作用。     

Vulnerability of Kuwait coast to sea level rise

Assessing coastal vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) at local and regional scales is a fundamental step for designing successful long-term coastal management plans. This study was thus designed to assess Kuwait coastal vulnerability to SLR at four scenarios (.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 m). Potential inundated areas and the number of people at risk were estimated based on these SLR scenarios. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) map of Kuwait was then computed based on the lowest scenario using eight parameters: elevation, coastal slope, geomorphology, distance to 20-m isobath, population, land use, cultural heritage and transportation. The geographic distribution of inundated areas at an SLR of .5 m revealed that the northern islands of Kuwait and coastal areas along Kuwait Bay would be highly impacted, whereas the coastal area near Shuaibah Port was the most influenced among the southern coasts. Most of the coastal area exhibited a moderate vulnerability to SLR, especially the northern islands. This study presented an initial vulnerability assessment for Kuwait coasts to SLR, which can be extended with more variables. The integrated remote sensing and geographic information system methodology demonstrated in this study can be applied in similar studies elsewhere.     

古尔班通古特沙漠南缘梭梭茎干液流变化及其对环境因子的响应

利用TDP热扩散式茎流计,结合气象观测系统,对古尔班通古特沙漠南缘原生梭梭的树干液流及环境因子进行连续监测,分析了梭梭树干液流对环境要素的响应,基于潜在蒸散发和蒸腾需求指数对梭梭茎干液流进行了模拟。结果表明：（1）梭梭树干液流在晴天的日变化呈单峰曲线,液流速率上升阶段时间短于下降阶段时间,与气象因素的日变化规律不一致。不同季节梭梭树干液流速率日变化规律存在差异,夏季液流与春季、秋季相比,启动早,停止晚,峰值更大且发生更早。（2）环境要素间存在着不同程度的相关性,主成分分析表明：前三个主成分共能解释85%的环境信息,其中以空气湿度、空气温度、水汽压亏缺、潜在蒸散发、净辐射为主的第一主成分能解释47%环境信息变化,以土壤温度、水汽压为主的第二主成分能解释20%环境信息变化,以土壤含水量、风速为主的第三主成分能解释17.6%的环境信息变化。（3）在春季和夏季基于潜在蒸散发的S型模型模拟梭梭液流速率的精度更高,在秋季基于蒸腾需求指数模拟的梭梭液流速率的精度更高。（4）梭梭树干液流速率与大气水分亏缺、净辐射、潜在蒸散发之间存在非对称响应,且不同季节间的响应规律存在差异,在春季和秋季,液流速率与水汽压亏缺呈顺时针状,与净辐射、潜在蒸散发呈逆时针状;在夏季,液流速率与水汽压亏缺呈顺时针状,与净辐射、潜在蒸散发呈斜8字顺时针状。     

DISASTER ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF LAND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY COAL CUTTING IN CHINA

In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great attention to the land subsidence causedby coal cutting. In China, because of the dense population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more seri-ous. After a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a comprehensive and systematical ac-count on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endan-gered land, buildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and socialenvironment. In order to lessen the hazard of land subsidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the col-lapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination mining system, orhigh-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinforcing or moving certain buildings should also be taken toreduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for fanning, mea-sures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, excavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.     

Spatial pattern and regional types of rural settlements in Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province, China

This paper principally focuses on the morphological differences,spatial pattern and regional types of rural settlements in Xuzhou City of Jiangsu Province in China.Using satellite images of Xuzhou City taken in 2007 and 2008 and models of exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and spatial metrics,the paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the morphological pattern of rural settlements,and finds significant characteristics.First,rural settlements in Xuzhou City are significantly agglomerated in terms of their spatial distribution;meanwhile,there is significant variation in the geographical density distribution.Second,the scale of rural settlements in Xuzhou City is larger than the average in Jiangsu Province,and the histogram of the scale data is more even and more like a gamma distribution.There are a significant high-value cluster in the scale distribution,and local negative correlation between the scale and density distribution of rural settlements in Xuzhou City.Third,the morphology of rural settlements in Xuzhou City shows relative regularity with good connection and integrity,but the spatial variation of the morphology is anisotropic.Finally,according to the characteristics of density,scale,and form of rural settlements,the rural settlements of Xuzhou City are divided into three types:A high-density and point-scattered type,a low-density and cluster-like type and a mass-like and sparse type.The research findings could be used as the scientific foundation for rural planning and community rebuilding,particularly in less-developed areas.     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

Comparative Analysis of Seismic Response Characteristics of Pile-Soil-Stnicture Interaction System

The study on the earthquake-resistant performance of a pile-soil-structure interaction system is a relatively complicated and primarily important issue in civil engineering practice. In this paper, a computational model and computation procedures for pile-supported structures, which can duly consider the pile-soil interaction effect, are established by the finite element method. Numerical implementation is made in the time domain. A simplified approximation for the seismic response analysis of pile-soil-structure systems is briefly presented. Then a comparative study is performed for an engineering example with numerical results computed respectively by the finite element method and the simplified method. Through comparative analysis, it is shown that the results obtained by the simplified method well agree with those achieved by the finite element method. The numerical results and findings will offer instructive guidelines for earthquake-resistant analysis and design of pile-supported structures.     

加权方差分析及其在地壳垂直运动中的应用

经典最小二乘准则下的方差分析要求观测值的正态随机误差之间是相互独立的，而实际遇到的测量数据经常并不满足这一条件。为了从广泛意义上更科学地研究和应用方差分析这一理论，提出了加权方差理论，导出和论证了相应的公式，并以实例讨论了它在地壳垂直运动分析中的应用。