Evaluation of coseismic landslide hazard on the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway,South Island,New Zealand

Coseismic landsliding presents a major hazard to infrastructure in mountains during large earthquakes. This is particularly true for road networks, as historically coseismic landsliding has resulted in road losses larger than those due to ground shaking. Assessing the exposure of current and planned highway links to coseismic landsliding for future earthquake scenarios is therefore vital for disaster risk reduction. This study presents a method to evaluate the exposure of critical infrastructure to landsliding from scenario earthquakes from an underlying quantitative landslide hazard assessment. The method is applied to a proposed new highway link in South Island, New Zealand, for a scenario Alpine Fault earthquake and compared to the current network. Exposure (the likelihood of a network being affected by one or more landslides) is evaluated from a regional-scale coseismic landslide hazard model and assessed on a relative basis from 0 to 1. The results show that the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway (HHH) would be highly exposed to coseismic landsliding with at least 30–40?km likely to be badly affected (the Simonin Pass route being the worse affected of the two routes). In the current South Island State Highway network, the HHH would be the link most exposed to landsliding and would increase the total network exposure by 50–70% despite increasing the total road length by just 3%. The present work is intended to provide an effective method to assess coseismic landslide hazard of infrastructure in mountains with seismic hazard, and potentially identify mitigation options and critical network segments.     

Uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis

The character and importance of uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis drives how risk assessments are used in practice. The current interpretation of uncertainty is that, in addition to the aleatory risk which arises from presumed uncertainty in the world, it comprises the epistemic aspects of irresolution in a model or forecast, specifically model and parameter uncertainty. This is true in part but it is not all there is to uncertainty in risk analysis. The physics of hazards and of failure may be poorly understood, which goes beyond uncertainty in its conventional sense. There may be alternative scenarios of future conditions, for example non-stationarity in the environment, which cannot easily be forecast. There may also be deep uncertainties of the type associated with climate change. These are situations in which analysts do not know or do not agree on the system characterisation relating actions to consequences or on the probability distributions for key parameters. All of these facets are part of the uncertainty in risk analysis with which we must deal.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment for Montreal

In Canada, Montreal is the second city with the highest seismic risk. This is due to its relatively high seismic hazard, old infrastructures and high population density. The region is characterised by moderate seismic activity with no recent record of a major earthquake. The lack of historical strong ground motion records for the region contributes to large uncertainties in the estimation of hazards. Among the sources of uncertainty, the attenuation function is the main contributor and its effect on estimates of risks is investigated. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggest that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. Seismic loss estimates are performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic threat, which corresponds to the design level earthquake in the national building code of Canada, using HAZUS-MH4 for the Montreal region over 522 census tracts. The study estimated that for the average scenario roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for such a scenario. The maximum number of casualties would result in approximately 500 people being injured or dead at a calculated time of occurrence of 2?pm.     

Applying disk-based discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) to simulate Donghekou landslide triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake

In this paper, for the first time, disk-based discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) is applied to simulate a real landslide triggered by an earthquake. For this purpose, the kinematic behaviour of the Donghekou landslide triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake is simulated and the results obtained using disk-based DDA are compared with actual data. The comparisons show that there is a good agreement between the results obtained using disk-based DDA and observed data. The simulation results provided an understanding of the failure behaviour and temporal evolution of the landslide. This study shows that disk-based DDA is a practical numerical tool that can be used to simulate the post-failure behaviour of landslides triggered by an earthquake.     

新疆乌恰萨热克铜矿北矿带库孜贡苏组沉积相、古流向、物源区及其找矿意义——来自砾石统计分析的证据

萨热克盆地库孜贡苏组是萨热克铜矿的赋矿层位,开展沉积相、物源区及古流向研究对隐伏铜矿的勘探具有重要意义。选取萨热克铜矿北矿带库孜贡苏组地表矿化最好的砾岩展开砾石统计分析,结果表明,偏斜度显示砾岩为冲积扇相沉积,砾石叠瓦状和砂岩斜层理产状统计显示古流向为北北东向;砾石成分主要为石英、石英砂岩、砂岩,石英岩等;粒度分布呈宽峰态或尖峰态;物源区为元古宇长城系阿克苏群变质岩剥蚀区;物源补给分为主河流补给和支河流补给2种方式。冲积扇相、古流向、物源区分析确定了矿体的范围、最优的勘探线布置方位和潜在的找矿靶区,具有很好的勘探意义。     

基于多元对应分析的国家地质公园综合价值及分类

目前地质公园的分类难以针对具有多重价值属性的各类地质公园提出行之有效的分类管理模式。提出基于综合价值的国家地质公园分类模式,建立了国家地质公园综合价值评价指标,通过问卷调查与小组讨论获取了35个国家地质公园的量化综合价值评价指标数据,应用多元对应分析对量化数据进行统计处理,最后将35个国家地质公园分为禀赋型地质公园、生态型地质公园、成熟型地质公园、均衡型地质公园和发展型地质公园五大类,为国家地质公园分类管理提供依据。     

西藏白朗南部地区三叠纪地层沉积环境及物源

综合露头剖面、砂岩碎屑组分、地球化学、阴极发光等资料的研究,对西藏白朗地区南部三叠系沉积环境及物源开展了研究。该区三叠纪地层以灰黑色泥岩、浅灰白色石英砂岩、长石石英砂岩、灰色灰岩为主,沉积背景为拉轨岗日被动陆缘盆地的浅海-半深海环境。碎屑岩及其地球化学分析结果反映,物源总体来自克拉通内部。阴极发光结果表明,物源区石英主要为变质成因,次为火成岩成因。综合判定,研究区该套地层为下—中三叠统吕村组和上三叠统涅如组,物源区来自南部高喜马拉雅基底杂岩带。     

库车坳陷新生代构造应力场恢复

库车坳陷的构造变形及演化与南天山造山带的发育密切相关。库车坳陷新近纪以来的喜马拉雅晚期构造运动最为强烈,形成了天山山前大型冲断带,并造就了现今的构造格局。通过对库车坳陷北部构造样式的识别及各种应力场指示标志的测量、统计和构造解析,对野外获得的应力场指示标志划分了期次,认为喜马拉雅晚期应力场标志为近南北向挤压。结合库车坳陷区域构造要素,如地质体几何形态、边界条件、岩石力学参数等,运用弹性力学有限元数值模拟的方法获得了喜马拉雅晚期库车坳陷的区域应力场。模拟结果表明,库车坳陷喜马拉雅晚期最大主压应力方向为近南北向,与古应力场标志拟合较高,可以为库车坳陷裂缝预测和评价提供依据,对勘探开发有应用价值。     

阿尔金北缘岩石变形机制——来自X光组构分析的证据

对阿尔金北缘地区变形蚀变花岗岩、花岗质糜棱岩、变形酸性火山岩和变形英安质凝灰岩中石英和绢云母2种矿物进行X光岩石组构分析,认为本区岩石变形比较明显,宏观面理近于东西向展布,绢云母变形较强,平行于面理定向排列;而石英以底面或近底面滑移为主,部分样品兼有柱面Ⅰ型滑移和柱面Ⅱ型滑移,反映本区岩石变形机制为中浅层次的脆-韧性变形(10~15km、250~350℃、0.25~0.40GPa)。通过岩石组构特征与宏观面理产状,推断本区韧性变形以右行运动为主,与板块碰撞在阿尔金北缘大平沟地区产生的韧性变形带特征一致。     

Distribution of calcareous nannoplankton in surface sediments along the northern KwaZulu-Natal Bight,South Africa

The coccolith assemblages from seafloor sediments over the inner shelf in the northern region of the KwaZulu- Natal Bight on the east coast of South Africa were identified and their distribution determined. In all, 29 Recent species and taxonomic groups, as well as 29 reworked species were recorded. The distribution of the Recent species appears to be governed by environmental features that have been documented in other studies: temperature, salinity, nutrient concentration and water circulation pattern, which reveals the long-term existence of a circulation cell in the sector between Durban Bay and the Thukela River. The outer edge of the cell consists of nutrient-enriched mixed layers and is characterised by an enhanced abundance of Gephyrocapsa oceanica, whereas the central region consists of a stratified nutrient-depleted water mass with elevated abundance of Umbilicosphaera sibogae, Florisphaera profunda, and a group of umbelliform species. The elevated levels of G. oceanica, coupled with the rarity of U. sibogae, F. profunda and the umbelliform species, confirm the presence of a permanent upwelling cell off Richards Bay. The maximum abundance of F. profunda found between Richards Bay and Lake Nhlabane indicates a region of nutrient-depleted (except for nitrite) conditions.