Impact of the surface temperature and vertical shear of zonal wind on the dynamics of a simple two-layer model of the atmosphere

The paper presents and analyzes, from the point of view of smooth dynamic systems theory, a two-layer baroclinic model of the troposphere in geostrophic approximation. The model describes airflow in β-channel within the tropospheric part of the main Hadley circulation cell. It enables to obtain, after application of the Galerkin method, a fairly simple low-parametric dynamic system describing the phenomena of non-linear interactions, bifurcations and blocking in the atmosphere. This enables to take into consideration such basic factors influencing the atmospheric dynamics like the heat exchange within the surface, orography, vertical variability of zonal wind and hydrostatic stability. Impact of zonal thermal variability of the surface and vertical shear of zonal wind in the troposphere on the orographic bifurcation was investigated and the oscillation character in the dynamic system after Hopf bifurcation of the second kind was analyzed. Additionally, the model dynamics was investigated in conditions including momentum forcing in the upper and lower parts of the troposphere and excluding orographic interaction, as well as in the conditions of thermal interaction between the troposphere and the surface for the vertical shear of zonal wind in both tropospheric layers. Impact of the mean zonal wind in the troposphere on the properties of model dynamics was assessed. It was proved that zonally varied surface temperature and layered mean zonal wind in the atmosphere are the parameters that have basic influence on the model dynamics. They cause numerous bifurcations and strongly influence the periods of oscillations of the model variables. They are often Hopf bifurcations of the second kind during which tropospheric states fairly distant from the ones before the bifurcations are generated. This significantly influences the model predictability.     

Implicit numerical integration for a kinematic hardening soil plasticity model

Soil models based on kinematic hardening together with elements of bounding surface plasticity, provide a means of introducing some memory of recent history and stiffness variation in the predicted response of soils. Such models provide an improvement on simple elasto‐plastic models in describing soil behaviour under non‐monotonic loading. Routine use of such models requires robust numerical integration schemes. Explicit integration of highly non‐linear models requires extremely small steps in order to guarantee convergence. Here, a fully implicit scheme is presented for a simple kinematic hardening extension of the Cam clay soil model. The algorithm is based on the operator split methodology and the implicit Euler backward integration scheme is proposed to integrate the rate form of the constitutive relations. This algorithm maintains a quadratic rate of asymptotic convergence when used with a Newton–Raphson iterative procedure. Various strain‐driven axisymmetric triaxial paths are simulated in order to demonstrate the efficiency and good performance of the proposed algorithm. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bianchi type-III cosmological model in four- and five-dimensional bimetric theory of relativity

Four- and five-dimensional Bianchi type-III cosmological model in Rosen (1980) bimetric theory of gravitation is considered. Restricting to a particular type of background metric, it is observed that the Bianchi type-III cosmological model does not exist in case of both meson field and mesonic perfect fluid. Hence only vacuum model can be obtained.     

An isostatically compensated gravity model using spherical layer distributions

A new isostatic model for the Earths gravity field is presented based on a simple hypothesis of layers approximating constant density contrasts. The spherical layer distribution used to describe the hydrostatic equilibrium of the Earths masses leads to a new set of spherical harmonic coefficients for the gravitational potential. First attempts to quantify the information content of these coefficients led to the outcome that they seem to explain the observed gravity field for a certain wavelength band, while they are insufficient for short and very long wavelengths. A synthesis of the derived coefficients over specific degree ranges provided a computation of band-limited geoid undulations on a global scale. The association of these potential quantities with known tectonic structures, such as the topography of the core–mantle boundary, strengthens the belief that the interpretation of Earth gravity models, especially those arising from global digital elevation models, should be considered in close relation with deep-Earth structure.     

A reactive flow model of the geothermal reservoir Waiwera, New Zealand

A numerical model of the complex interaction between fluid flow, heat transfer, and chemical reactions of the shallow, coastal, hydrothermal system of Waiwera (New Zealand) is used to test the proposed conceptual model of the field.Due to declining water levels, resulting from over-exploitation during the 1970s, the objective here was to set up a coupled fluid flow and heat transfer model to help in enabling a predictive and sustainable use of the resource. The presented conceptual model of the area is based on hydraulic, thermal, and chemical field observations, which date back as far as 1863. The numerical simulations were carried out with the reactive transport code SHEMAT.The inflow of geothermal water at the bottom of the reservoir prevents seawater from entering the aquifer. If seawater intrusion occurs, it is due to over-exploitation and happens in the upper parts of the aquifer. This is in contrast to common seawater-freshwater interfaces where seawater intrudes at the bottom. The numerical investigations emphasize that, after modifications of the production regime in the late 1980s, the system is recovering again.Additionally, geochemical calculations have been conducted to answer the question if dissolution or precipitation reactions might change the hydraulic properties of the geothermal aquifer. Mixing of fresh, geothermal, and seawater, although each of them in thermodynamic equilibrium with calcite, lead to calcite precipitation or dissolution. Nevertheless, the simulations show that the hydraulic properties of the aquifer are not significantly affected by dissolution or precipitation.

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Resumen Se ha utilizado un modelo numérico de la interacción compleja entre el flujo de fluidos, la transferencia de calor y las reacciones químicas del sistema hidrotermal costero poco profundo de Waiwera (Nueva Zelanda) con el objeto de probar el modelo conceptual del área propuesto. Debido a los niveles de agua decrecientes, el objetivo de este trabajo es establecer un modelo pareado del flujo de aguas y de la transferencia de calor para colaborar en el uso predecible y sostenible del recurso. El modelo conceptual del área presentado está basado en observaciones de terreno hidráulicas, termales y químicas que datan de 1863. Las simulaciones se llevaron a cabo con el código de transporte reactivo SHEMAT. El influjo de agua geotermal al fondo del reservorio impide que el agua de mar entre en el acuífero. Si la intrusión de agua de mar se presenta, esto sucede a causa de la sobreexplotación y ocurre en las partes superiores del acuífero. Esto contrasta con las interfaces comunes de agua de mar-agua dulce donde la intrusión del agua de mar se da al fondo. Las investigaciones numéricas enfatizan que el sistema se está recuperando de nuevo luego de las modificaciones al regimen de producción a fines de los 80. Adicionalmente, los cálculos geoquímicos están dirigidos a contestar si las reacciones de disolución o precipitación pueden cambiar las propiedades hidráulicas del acuífero geotérmico. La mezcla de agua dulce, geotermal y de mar causa precipitación o disolución de calcita a pesar de que cada una de ellas se encuentra en equilibrio termodinámicao con la calcita. Sin embargo, las simulaciones muestran que las propiedades hidráulicas del acuífero no son afectadas siginificativamente por la disolución o precipitación.

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Résumé Un modèle numérique de linteraction complexe entre lécoulement de leau, le transfert de chaleur et les réactions chimiques du système hydrothermal côtier peu profond de Waiwera (Nouvelle-Zélande) est utilisé afin de tester le modèle conceptuel. Lobjectif est de bâtir un modèle couplé découlement et de transfert de chaleur afin dencourager une approche prévisioniste et une utilisation durable de la ressource en réponse à des niveaux deau en déclin qui résultent dune surexploitation depuis les années 1970. Le modèle conceptuel présenté est basé sur des observations de terrain concernant lhydraulique, la température et la composition chimique de laquifère, des observations qui peuvent dater daussi loin que 1863. Les simulations numériques ont été réalisées avec le modèle de transport SHEMAT. Lentrée deau géothermale à la base du réservoir préviens lintrusion deau de mer dans laquifère. Si lintrusion deau de mer a lieu, elle est due à la surexploitation qui a lieu dans la partie supérieure de laquifère. Cette situation est lopposée des interfaces eau de mer - eau douce traditionnelles où leau de mer pénètre par la base. Les simulations numériques suggèrent que suite aux modifications du régime de production à la fin des années 1980, le système récupère. De plus, des calculs géochimiques ont été effectués afin de répondre à la question à savoir si les réactions de dissolution et de précipitation changent les propriétés hydrauliques de laquifère géothermal. Le mélange de leau douce, leau géothermale et leau de mer, même si elle sont tous en équilibre thermodynamique avec la calcite, provoque la dissolution ou précipitation de la calcite. Néanmoins, les simulations montrent que les propriétés hydrauliques de laquifère ne sont pas significativement affectées par la dissolution ou la précipitation.

     

Uncertainty Analysis in Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling

The concentration of a pollutant in the atmosphere is a random variable that cannot be predicted accurately, but can be described using quantities such as ensemble mean, variance, and probability distribution. There is growing recognition that the modeled concentrations of hazardous contaminants in the atmosphere should be described in a probabilistic framework. This paper discusses the various types of uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion models, and reviews sensitivity/uncertainty analysis methods to characterize and/or reduce them. Evaluation and quantification of the range of uncertainties in predictions yield a deeper insight into the capabilities and limitations of atmospheric dispersion models, and increase our confidence in decision-making based on models.     

Significance of strain localization and fracturing in relation to hydrothermal mineralization at Mount Isa, Australia

The rheology of layered meta-sedimentary rocks, and their orientation and position relative to major fault systems were the key controls on Proterozoic hydrothermal copper mineralization at Mount Isa, Australia. Compositional layering in the host rock partitioned mechanical behavior and strain, leading to selective permeability generation and the focusing of fluid flow. Shale layers preferentially failed by plastic shearing, whereas meta-siltstones remained elastic or failed in tension depending on magnitude of deformation and fluid pressure. Numerical simulations support the hypothesis that the orientation of layering and the proximity to major fault systems controlled fracturing and permeability increase in the Urquhart shale. The dilating shale provided a pathway for an upward-flowing, reduced basement fluid, from which quartz was precipitated during cooling. During a later event, the reactivation of steep structures provided access to surface derived oxidized metal-bearing brine, causing the precipitation of dolomite followed by chalcopyrite ore in the brecciated silicified shale.     

On the resolving power of tomographic images in the Aegean area

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The imaging of upper mantle heterogeneity by seismic tomography is strongly limited by the uneven global distribution both of seismic recording stations and earthquake sources. This can result in a loss of resolution and significance in the final image, particularly when a sparse data set contains few ray paths which intersect at sufficiently high angles in the volume of interest. In order to investigate the theoretical resolving power of a previously published tomographic image of the Aegean area, synthetic tests of the inversion procedure using a ray-path matrix obtained in this previous study for local and teleseismic P -waves were carried out. The aim was to examine the extent to which the shape of a synthetic lithospheric slab penetrating to different depths is inherently distorted by the tomographic imaging procedure, and to compare the synthetic tomographic images with the results from the actual inversion. The distortion is found to take the form of an artificial stretching of the lithospheric slab. The maximum 'stretching factor', as indicated by the downdip displacement of the peak amplitude of the synthetic high-velocity anomaly, is found to be a factor of 2 or so, though the distortion is usually less than this. The peak amplitude of the tomographic image of a lithospheric slab is found from the inversion of traveltime data to be at depths at or below 400 km. This indicates that the high-velocity lithospheric slab in the Aegean penetrates deeper than the Benioff zone seismicity of about 200 km. However, no constraints of the maximum depth of penetration could be established with the data set used in the present work.     

Vegetation characteristics and the prediction of runoff: Analysis of an experiment in the New Forest,Hampshire

Vegetation characteristics have not been sufficiently utilized in catchment runoff models. An analysis of storm hydrograph data from nested subareas of the Highland Water catchment, New Forest, U.K., indicates that depth of runoff and peak discharge from areas under heathland cover is substantially greater than from areas under woodland cover at several spatial scales. The significance of heath vegetation composition in the identification of runoff contributing areas is illustrated by an analysis of vegetation composition, water table depth, baseflow discharge and storm runoff from areas predominantly covered by heathland. Methods are proposed to employ the hydrological characteristics of heathland to refine and develop the Flood Studies Approach to discharge estimation in ungauged heathland catchments. Such an approach is greatly facilitated by the use of remotely-sensed data.     

Flood hydrograph attenuation induced by a reservoir system: analysis with a distributed rainfall‐runoff model

Spatially distributed hydrologic models can be effectively utilized for flood event simulation over basins where a complex system of reservoirs affecting the natural flow regime is present. Flood peak attenuation through mountain reservoirs can, in fact, mitigate the impact of major floods in flood‐prone areas of the lower river valley. Assessment of this effect for a complex reservoir system is performed with a spatially distributed hydrologic model where the surface runoff formation and the hydraulic routing through each reservoir and the river system are performed at a fine spatial and time resolution. The Toce River basin is presented as a case study, because of the presence of 14 active hydroelectric dams that affect the natural flow regime. A recent extreme flood event is simulated using a multi‐realization kriging method for modelling the spatial distribution of rainfall. A sensitivity analysis of the key elements of the distributed hydrologic model is also performed. The flood hydrograph attenuation is assessed. Several possible reservoir storage conditions are used to characterize the initial condition of each reservoir. The results demonstrate how a distributed hydrologic model can contribute to defining strategies for reservoir management in flood mitigation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.