Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

黄河流域2002年麦收期间一次强降水过程分析

本文通过对陕西南部的佛坪县2002年6月8日——lO日的降水达到了489mm的特大暴雨降水过程的初步分析，对进一步了解大尺度环流背境场下的强降水过程的成因，提高对暴雨天气过程的预报能力是非常有益的；本文收集的降水过程期间的天气图和传真图资料对预报员和海洋工程技术人员有参考价值。     

Seakeeping assessment of fishing vessels in conceptual design stage

The main idea of this paper is to identify functional relations between seakeeping characteristics and hull form parameters of Mediterranean fishing vessels. Multiple regression analysis is used for quantitative assessment through a computer software that is based on the SQL Server Database. The seakeeping attributes under investigation are the transfer functions of heave and pitch motions and of absolute vertical acceleration at stern, while the ship parameters influencing motion dynamics have been classified into two groups: displacement (Δ) and main dimensions (L, B, T), coefficients that define the details of the hull form (C_WP, C_VP, LCB, LCF, etc.).Four multiple regression models having different parameter combinations are here investigated and discussed, giving way to the so-called ‘Simple Model’, ‘Intermediate Model’, ‘Enhanced 1 Model’ and ‘Enhanced 2 Model’. The obtained results are more than satisfactory for seakeeping predictions during the conceptual design stage.     

东海陆架盆地与松辽盆地的类比分析

松辽盆地在我国的含油气盆地中勘探程度较高，已探明了几十亿吨的地质储量，对控制盆地油气形成的生、储、盖、圈、运、保等条件的研究也比较深入和细致，东海陆架盆地是我国目前勘探程度较低却有很大油气远景的盆地，这两个盆地都是我国东部中新生代大型复合沉积盆地，在地质构造上具有一定的相似性。本文试图通过东海陆架盆地与松辽盆地的对比在研究它们各自特征的基础上，寻找这两个大型沉积盆地的共同点和相似性，以便借鉴松辽盆     

长期非平稳荷载调谐质量减振阻尼器优化设计

研究外荷载为长期非平稳随机过程。考虑长期荷载的特性 ,采用 1个概率谱密度函数来反映长期非平稳随机荷载及其特征 ;概率谱密度函数是基于大量的一般谱密度函数的统计特性获得。以延长结构的抗疲劳使用寿命为目标函数 ,提出了调谐质量减振阻尼器的优化设计方法 ,这在实际工程中有着极为广阔的应用前景。本文旨在从理论上发展长期非平稳随机荷载作用下调谐质量减振阻尼器的优化设计方法 ;文中采用长期波浪实测数据 ,给出了 1个数值算例说明整个设计过程。     

Thermohaline Anomalies in the Spring and Early Summer of 2000 in the Gulf of Trieste

Abstract. In the framework of the Interreg II Project (July 1998 - June 2001), hydro-logical, chemical and biological data were collected in the Gulf of Trieste.
During spring and summer 2000, some particular thermohaline anomalies were observed in the Gulf of Trieste. Especially in May and June the water body showed: a very strong thermohaline stratification, an increase of advective salt water coming from the south and the presence of sharp pycnoclines. In July the temperature was higher than usual in the whole water column. Moreover, in late May and in June, massive mucilaginous aggregates were observed along the water column and at the surface.
In order to highlight these particular thermohaline features the hydrological data of 16 stations were analysed (Fig. 1). Two stations, in particular, were considered: one offshore (St. AA1, average depth 20 m) and one close to the coast (St. C1, average depth 17 m). For these two stations a best-fit analysis, computed over 11 and 7 years, respectively, was performed on temperature, salinity and density excess data.
Moreover, the hydrological features were compared with the rainfall, air temperature, wind speed data (Istituto Sperimentale Talassografico di Trieste - ISTT) and the Isonzo River's flow rate (Direzione Regionale dell'Ambiente - Regione F. V. G.) collected from January 1998 to December 2000.     

Nutrients and zooplankton composition and dynamics in relation to the hydrological pattern in a confined Mediterranean salt marsh (NE Iberian Peninsula)

The role of the hydrological regime in the nutrients and zooplankton composition and dynamics has been analysed in five lagoons of La Pletera salt marshes (NE Iberian Peninsula) during a complete hydrological cycle (2002–2003). Two of the lagoons have their origin in the old river mouths while the other three were recently created in the framework of a Life Restoration project. This fact has also allowed us to study the effect of the lagoon age on nutrient and zooplankton composition and dynamics. The salt marsh hydrology is determined by a prolonged period of confinement without water inputs, irregularly interrupted by sudden water inputs due to flooding events (sea storms or intense rainfalls). While the dynamics of oxidized nitrogen compounds in the lagoons depends on the water inputs variability within each hydrological cycle, the internal load of phosphorus, total nitrogen and organic matter is related more to the cumulative mechanisms during the confinement periods. Accumulation processes may be easily related to lagoon age, since old lagoons have higher content of nutrients and organic matter, suggesting that these lagoons progressively accumulate nutrients during the successive confinement events. This is the usual case for most Mediterranean salt marshes without an artificially manipulated water regime. The zooplankton community in La Pletera integrates the effects of both the hydrological regime and the lagoon age since the former determines the temporal pattern of the main zooplankton species and the latter explains differences in composition and structure between old and new lagoons.     

Stress and deformation of offshore piles under structural and wave loading

Various offshore structures, especially large structures such as Tension Leg Platforms (TLP), are usually supported by concrete piles as the foundation elements. The stress distribution within such a large structure is a dominant factor in the design procedure of an offshore pile. To provide a more accurate and effective design for offshore foundation systems under axial and lateral wave loads, a finite element model is employed herein to determine the stresses and displacements in a concrete pile under similar loading conditions. A parametric study is also performed to examine the effects of the stress distribution due to the changing loading conditions.