Cultivated land change in the Belt and Road Initiative region

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia, Africa and Europe. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries (64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration. We apply FAO statistics and GlobeLand30 (the world’s finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution), and develop three indicator groups (namely quantity, conversion, and utilization degree) for the analysis. The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10⁴ km² between 2000 and 2010. The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China. Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Hungary (0.66×10⁴ km²) and India (0.57×104 km2). China decreased 1.95×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Bangladesh (–0.22×10⁴ km²) and Thailand (–0.22×10⁴ km²). Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest, grassland, artificial surfaces and bare land, and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics: while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces, considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia. The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe, while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries. Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic- focused studies, as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses. Nevertheless, the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China’ “Go Out policy” would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.     

塔里木河流域绿洲城镇发展与水土资源效益分析

通过Global Moran's I 指数和Getis-Ord Gi*指数并构建协调发展度模型对塔里木河流域绿洲城镇1995、2000、2005 和2008 年4 个时间点的城镇化水平、土地资源效益和水资源效益的集聚扩散状态及其冷热点空间格局演化与空间联动效应进行分析,得出结论：受塔河流域绿洲分布、气候条件及城镇发展基础等多种因素影响,城镇化和水土资源效益空间格局表现出不尽相同的状态。① 塔河流域城镇化与水土资源效益的集聚扩散状态不一致,城镇发展与自然条件相互作用的时间和力度不同决定了三者空间差异的必然性。② 受城镇化所处阶段、城镇职能与主导产业的影响,各县市水土资源开发的时序不同,城镇化和水土资源效益各自的热点演化格局明显不同,区域联动效应差异显著。③ 城镇化与水土资源效益冷热点区域的数量结构迥异。城镇不平衡发展仍然是主导趋势,土地资源效益滞后于城镇发展,水资源效益敏感性较强。④ 塔河流域范围广,自然条件复杂,各二级流域城镇化与水土资源效益的差异性显著。⑤ 城镇化与水土资源效益协调发展度的类型主要为发展水平低和较低两种,协调发展度的空间格局相比其冷热点区域的空间格局更具稳定性,三者差异显著是协调发展度低的重要原因。     

黄河流域坡高地系统最小生态需水研究

以保护和恢复流域坡高地生态系统为目的，对坡高地最小生态需水问题进行研究，提出了坡高地生态需水和生态缺水的计算方法。以黄河流域为实例，在GIS和遥感技术支持下对坡高地最小生态需水量和缺水量进行了计算，并从时空两个尺度揭示了黄河流域坡高地生态系统最小生态需水的变化规律，研究成果可为流域生态环境建设和水资源合理配置提供依据。     

Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the relationship with ENSO

During recent decades, more frequent flood-drought alternations have been seen in China as a result of global climate change and intensive human activities, which have significant implications on water and food security. To better identify the characteristics of flood-drought alternations, we proposed a modified dry-wet abrupt alternation index (DWAAI) and applied the new method in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB-ML) to analyze the long-term spatio-temporal characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events based on the daily precipitation observations at 75 rainfall stations in summer from 1960 to 2015. We found that the DWAA events have been spreading in the study area with higher frequency and intensity since 1960. In particular, the DWAA events mainly occurred in May and June in the northwest of the YRB-ML, including Hanjiang River Basin, the middle reaches of the YRB, north of Dongting Lake and northwest of Poyang Lake. In addition, we also analyzed the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on DWAA events in the YRB-ML. The results showed that around 41.04% of DWAA events occurred during the declining stages of La Niña or within the subsequent 8 months after La Niña, which implies that La Niña events could be predictive signals of DWAA events. Besides, significant negative correlations have been found between the modified DWAAI values of all the rainfall stations and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region within the 6 months prior to the DWAA events, particularly for the Poyang Lake watershed and the middle reaches of the YRB. This study has significant implications on the flood and drought control and water resources management in the YRB-ML under the challenge of future climate change.     

城市居民时空行为序列模式挖掘方法

通过问卷调查获得北京市500个家庭的活动日志数据.运用序列比对方法对时空行为序列数据进行序列模式挖掘,对每类序列模式通过频繁模式挖掘出其中潜在有用的行为模式.试验结果表明,序列比对方法与频繁模式挖掘相结合在城市居民行为模式分析中应用成功,其弥补了传统数据分析方法的不足,为复杂时空行为数据的分析提供了一种新视角.     

中国港口时空格局演变及影响因素分析

港口是水路运输的枢纽和重要节点,对区域经济的发展起着重要作用。以我国规模以上港口为研究对象,运用指数分析与齐夫定律对近年来我国港口规模的区域差异、等级规模变化进行分析,通过灰色关联度模型确定影响港口规模的主要因素,结果发现:我国港口吞吐量增长迅速,以外贸运输为主;港口规模的区域差异与规模等级差异逐步缩小,各港口吞吐量呈现位序-规模分布,分形结构由单分形转为双分形,齐夫参数呈下降趋势;不同省级行政单元经济水平对港口规模影响存在差异,分为区域拉动型、外向经济型、腹地中转型和补充导向型。     

粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化时空特征及其经济效应

中国新时代“两个十五年”的现代化强国战略周期,恰恰是快速人口老龄化纵深发展期,人口年龄结构快速老龄化与经济社会之间的发展不平衡矛盾将日益严峻。本文利用广东省第四次、第五次、第六次人口普查资料、2015年广东省1%人口抽样调查资料、香港统计年刊和澳门统计年鉴数据,运用空间自相关分析法、柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和空间回归等方法,研究2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化的时空特征及其经济效应,结果表明：① 粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化进程慢于广东省,更慢于全国,但于2015年已进入老年型I期。② 粤港澳大湾区老龄化呈动态演变特征,空间上以香港和江门为起点,经西北向北扩散的“C”型分布模式,高收入城市以澳门和香港为起点向北扩散,最终形成中心-外围的空间分布格局。③ 粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化对经济增长具有负向影响,老龄人口增加1%,人均GDP降低3%。人均固定资本投入和人均人力资本投入有正的经济效应,人均人力资本投入带来的正向效应要大于人均固定资本投入。鉴于此,粤、港、澳三地应建立起协同治理模式,构建跨境的养老合作机制;促进产业结构升级,充分利用人力资本促进技术创新,并正确评估不同阶段人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,妥善处理好人口老龄化与经济之间的关系至关重要。     

中国县域耕地与农业劳动力变化的时空耦合关系

利用1996 年、2000 年和2005 年中国县域耕地与农业劳动力数据,基于GIS 技术和模型方法,分析了县域耕地面积与农业劳动力变化态势及其时空耦合特征。研究表明：① 县域耕地面积和农业劳动力变化均呈先增后减态势。1996-2000 年,耕地总量、劳动力数量分别增长2.70%和1.40%;2000-2005 年,耕地总量、劳动力数量分别减少1.51%和8.18%。②“胡焕庸线”是刻画中国耕地和劳动力变化格局的重要分界线。沿此线带状区域内因退耕还林造成耕地快速减少,而农业劳动力转移滞后;其西北部区域耕地快速增加,农业劳动力也在增长;其东南部区域耕地明显减少,而农业劳动力减少速度更快,二者呈现协调态势。③ 耕地非农化进程中县域劳动力转移效率呈下降趋势。1996-2000 年和2000-2005 年,全国分别有447 个和505 个县域的耕地减少和劳动力转移呈良性变化,90%的县域劳耕弹性系数(LFEC) 的中位数分别为4.58 和2.97。④ 基于SOM自组织特征映射神经网络聚类方法,可将1996-2005 年中国县域耕地与劳动力变化的耦合特征划分为9大类型区。多情景模拟分析表明,2005-2015年的LFEC趋势值为2.55。     

开放式虚拟地球集成共享平台GeoGlobe

三维气象场是一个多维变化的环境,可视化是研究其内在规律的重要方法。针对三维气象场的全球范围、多维多尺度、海量数据等特征,提出了基于体元对象的数据模型和多级体元索引机制,并在此基础上设计了面向三维气象场的可视化方法,包括基于箭头模型的矢量场可视化方法和改进后的基于三维纹理映射体绘制的标量场可视化方法。最后基于虚拟地球平台进行了可视化和时空检索分析实验。实验验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。