Atmospheric Pb and Cd input into the Baltic Sea: a new estimate based on measurements

Bulk deposition samples were collected during a summer (1997) and a winter (1998) measurement campaign at four coastal stations along the southern Baltic Sea coast and on the Island of Gotland. The data were used to construct Pb and Cd deposition fields over the Baltic Sea. A weak gradient with decreasing deposition rates from the southwest towards the east and north was obtained for Pb. In the case of Cd, the spatial distribution pattern was characterized by an extreme deposition maximum at the Polish station on the Hel Peninsula. The total atmospheric input of Pb and Cd into the Baltic Sea was 550 and 33 t/year, respectively, and exceeds the riverine input by approximately about 50%. Previous measurement-based estimates were higher by a factor 2–3 and indicate a decrease of the atmospheric deposition during the past 10–15 years. The comparison with modelled deposition data yielded partly large differences and was impaired by the fact that 1990 emission inventories were used whereas our measurements were performed in 1997/1998.Relating our deposition estimate and the Pb/Cd input by rivers to the mean concentrations in Baltic Sea water, residence times of 0.29 and 3.6 years were obtained for Pb and Cd, respectively.     

珠江口盆地番禺低隆起东部珠江组沉积环境的恢复

对珠江口盆地番禺低隆起东部L16井中新统珠江组的岩心观察分析,岩性包括碎屑岩、碳酸盐岩以及碎屑-碳酸盐的混积岩。珠江组可划分为11种沉积微相类型;建立了三角洲—滨岸—碎屑与碳酸盐混积滨岸—碳酸盐台地—浅海陆棚(23.8 Ma~18.5 Ma)沉积演化序列。地震地质解释证实了珠江组早期东沙三角洲的存在;古珠江三角洲与东沙三角洲构成了研究区珠江组下段的沉积主体。恢复了研究区珠江组沉积相及其演化,重点刻画了SQ2—TST时期由陆到海的变迁,而海平面变化是这一变迁的主要控制因素。     

黄东海大气边界层高度时空变化特征

根据2006-2007年大连、青岛和台州逐日高分辨率L波段二次测风雷达探空资料、地面观测资料以及再分析资料,采用干绝热法和位温梯度法分别计算了各个台站的边界层高度,继而分析了黄东海边界层高度多时间尺度变化规律和空间演变特征.结果表明:(1)用清晨探空资料计算每日边界层高度,干绝热法比位温梯度法更为合理可靠;(2)沿海台站边界层高度有显著季节变化,夏季最低,秋季最高,这有别于陆地边界层普遍存在的夏季高、秋冬季节低的季节变化;(3)通过小波分析,发现边界层高度有显著的2～4 d天气尺度振荡和10～20 d准双周振荡;(4)黄东海上空海洋大气边界层在时间尺度上同样存在着明显的春夏季节低、秋冬季节高的季节变化特征,大部分海区空间上呈现西北低、东南高的分布形态.     

Storm surges in the northern part of the Sea of Japan

All the available historic records of sea level and appropriate weather charts have been used to study storm surges in the northern part of the Sea of Japan. The generation of surges in this area was investigated by means of a two-dimensional numerical model. Computed sea levels were compared with hourly observed residual sea levels in De-Kastri. The agreement between computed and observed storm surges is quite satisfactory. The relative importance of various meteorological parameters and bottom topography in formation of the strong storm surge on 20–21 September 1975 was studied numerically.     

利用经验正交函数数据插值法重构东中国海叶绿素a质量浓度场

利用经验正交函数数据插值法(Data INterpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions)重构由MODIS-Aqua卫星提供的三级产品叶绿素a质量浓度,得到了从2003—2009年东中国海叶绿素a质量浓度的月平均场。东中国海近岸叶绿素a质量浓度7 a平均值明显高于外海。对叶绿素a质量浓度季节平均场进行分析研究表明,东中国海叶绿素a质量浓度主要受长江径流、海表水温和季风的影响。对叶绿素a质量浓度异常场进行EOF分析表明,第一模态方差贡献为37.8％,空间分布显示,在长江口东北部出现叶绿素a质量浓度异常高值区,时间变化以半年和半年以下周期为主;第二模态方差贡献为21.4％,空间分布显示,在长江口东部出现叶绿素a质量浓度异常高值区,时间系数主要表现为年际变化。     

埕岛海域水深地形特征及冲淤规律探讨

介绍了埕岛海域水深及地形特征,简述了埕岛海域经历的快速冲刷、缓慢冲刷及冲淤调整的3个阶段,探讨了位于局部高部位、平坦海底及过渡地带3种井场的冲淤规律.     

1998年春深圳湾环节环沟藻赤潮及其发生原因的探讨

1998年4月23日至29日深圳湾发生了较大规模的环节环沟藻赤潮,面积逾200km2,细胞密度高达3.8×106 个/L。赤潮发生于大量降雨之后 ,高峰期水体盐度在20以下。在深圳河河口海域 ,虽然富营养化程度也较高 ,但由于悬浮物含量过高 ,浮游植物及环节环沟藻数量较少。赤潮期间 ,深圳湾没有发生死鱼现象 ,养殖牡蛎的大量死亡估计与赤潮无关     

裂谷盆地构造热演化的数值模型及在南海北部的应用

在沉积盆地的定量模拟研究中,建立各种数值模型是研究的基础。由于裂谷盆地在科学研究和油气勘探上的重要性,对其数值模型的研究一直受到高度重视,提出了众多理论模型。本文选择影响较大的或对南海被动陆缘研究有重要作用的数值型进行介绍,包括最基础的McKenzie瞬时拉伸模型,以及后来发展起来的限时拉伸模型、单剪伸展模型、挠曲悬臂梁模型、伸展随深度变化的模型和多幕拉伸模型。重点介绍各个模型的基本假设、应用条件、盆地演化的数学表达式,分析各模型之间的异同点和相互关系。文中还列举了南海北部的一些研究实例,以帮助深入理解不同数值模型的方法和应用。     

Sedimentary evolution of a late Pleistocene wetland indicating extreme coastal uplift in southern Tanzania

Facies analyses of Pleistocene deposits from southern coastal Tanzania (Lindi District) document that sediments formed in a wetland evolving on a coastal terrace in the Lindi Fracture Zone foreland. The exposed succession shows a marked sedimentary change from tidal to terrestrial facies. ¹⁴C analyses on gastropod shells indicate the emergence of the Lindi coast at ∼ 44 ¹⁴C ka BP. Emergence and subsequent elevation of terraces to 21 m above present-day sea level was linked to the falling eustatic sea level prior to the last glacial maximum, and to a periodic elevation due to extensional tectonic episodes in the eastern branch of the East African Rift System (EARS). Since ∼ 44 ¹⁴C ka BP tectonic uplift at the coast was 80-110 m, comparable to that in the extreme uplift areas of the EARS.     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.