不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型

泥石流预报是泥石流减灾的重要手段之一，然而泥石流形成的复杂性使泥石流预报准确度低，误报和漏报率较高。泥石流误报和漏报都会造成损失，但二者造成的损失有很大的差别。为了减少泥石流误报或漏报造成的损失，应当考虑两种错报造成损失的不同。根据使总平均损失达到最小的原则，建立了不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型，并将该模型应用到云南东川蒋家沟。     

泥石流多发干旱河谷区植被恢复研究

云南东北部东川小江流域的干旱河谷土地退化十分严重，土地表层的砾石含量已超过60％，有机质含量、全氮、有效氮、有效磷、有效钾的含量相对于残存燥红土明显下降。草坡是当地的主要植被类型，并未起到防治土地退化的应有作用。以合欢（Leucaena glauca)、马桑（Coriaria sinica)种植为主的恢复方式对土地的恢复有明显的改善作用。高密度的乔木树种合欢的种植使林下的草本物种的数量和组成发生了极大变化，较耐荫的植物占据了林分下层，且物种数量较草坡减少，群落多样性指数降低。三种马桑种植方式下，不但原有的草坡群落的物种仍有大量的生存空间，而且为一些新物种创造了生存环境，从而使物种的种类较原有草坡地增加，提高了群落的多样性指数。合欢种植的生物量最高，对解决当地薪柴严重短缺意义重大，马桑种植在增加灌木层生物量的同时，并未改变草坡的物种组成，还可兼顾解决当地的饲草和放牧，应大力推广。     

A New Model for Heat Flow in Extensional Basins: Estimating Radiogenic Heat Production

Radiogenic heat production (RHP) represents a significant fraction of surface heat flow, both on cratons and in sedimentary basins. RHP within continental crust—especially the upper crust—is high. RHP at any depth within the crust can be estimated as a function of crustal age. Mantle RHP, in contrast, is always low, contributing at most 1 to 2 mW/m² to total heat flow. Radiogenic heat from any noncrystalline basement that may be present also contributes to total heat flow. RHP from metamorphic rocks is similar to or slightly lower than that from their precursor sedimentary rocks. When extension of the lithosphere occurs—as for example during rifting—the radiogenic contribution of each layer of the lithosphere and noncrystalline basement diminishes in direct proportion to the degree of extension of that layer. Lithospheric RHP today is somewhat less than in the distant past, as a result of radioactive decay. In modeling, RHP can be varied through time by considering the half lives of uranium, thorium, and potassium, and the proportional contribution of each of those elements to total RHP from basement. RHP from sedimentary rocks ranges from low for most evaporites to high for some shales, especially those rich in organic matter. The contribution to total heat flow of radiogenic heat from sediments depends strongly on total sediment thickness, and thus differs through time as subsidence and basin filling occur. RHP can be high for thick clastic sections. RHP in sediments can be calculated using ordinary or spectral gamma-ray logs, or it can be estimated from the lithology.     

Global heat budget, plate tectonics and climatic change

For the past 2000 Ma, the temperature of the Earth's surface has fluctuated around a mean similar to that of today, although individual locations have undergone long-term changes of ∼30°C at different times in different places. Water bodies absorb at least five times as much solar radiation as land surfaces, and ocean currents transport the excess heat absorbed in the tropics towards the poles. Changes in the distribution of land and sea due to plate tectonics explain the major temperature fluctuations (>25°C) around the globe in the last 350 Ma, and are first-order controls. Large-scale changes in ocean currents and thermohaline circulations are probably second-order controls (15–25°C). The Milankovitch orbital cycles are third-order controls producing variations in air temperature of the order of 10°C, while massive volcanic eruptions and changes in carbon dioxide are amongst the fourth-order controls producing minor perturbations (<5°C). The major climatic fluctuations are continuous but regional in effect and not global. Extraterrestrial factors may not cause major changes in climate when viewed from a geological perspective.     

粘性泥石流残留层的形成及减阻作用--以云南蒋家沟泥石流为例

通过对云南蒋家沟粘性泥石流的野外观测 ,讨论了粘性泥石流残留层的定义特征 ,在大量实测数据基础上 ,分析了残留层易形成时段的特性 ;分别对一次泥石流过程、若干阵泥石流和一阵泥石流残留层的变化进行了相关分析 ;最后用观测数据分析了泥石流残留层的减阻作用     

云南兰坪北部铜多金属矿化区成矿流体流动与矿化分带——流体包裹体和稳定同位素依据

滇西兰坪盆地北部发育了一类受逆冲推覆构造控制的浅成热液Cu—Ag—Pb-Zn矿化，形成了白秧坪、富隆厂、吴底厂、麻栗坪及金满、科登涧等大-中型矿床和矿点，并存在矿化分带。文章利用这些矿化脉体的流体包裹体和热液方解石的碳氧同位素组成资料，研究成矿流体与矿化分带的关系。结果表明，成矿流体主要属于NaCl-H2O成分体系，盐度ω(NaCleq)为2％～11％，形成温度为170～300℃，形成于1．8～3．8km深度内，这些相似性说明这类矿化的发生具有相似的流体性质和沉淀机制。热液方解石在δ^13C-δ^18O图解中呈近水平线展布的型式，指示流体源自地壳浅部的地下水系统，与海相灰岩等围岩作用形成了溶解碳以[HCO3^]-为主的成矿流体，流体与岩石的相互作用可能是成矿流体沉淀的主要机理。从西到东，流体包裹体的盐度-温度由高到低变化与矿化分带和逆冲推覆构造的根带→中带→锋带相配套，显示重力驱动流动可能是主要的流体流动机制。成矿流体在不同构造部位流动的通畅及流体．岩石系统的封闭-开放程度等流体流动性质与矿化发生的强度和规模有关，兰坪北部逆冲推覆构造中带的流体通畅地流动及沉淀时处于相对开放状态，有利于该区形成较大规模的浅成热液多金属矿化。     

热害矿井巷道温度场分布规律研究

为解决深部开采带来的热害问题，基于地质学和热力学理论，建立了热害矿井巷道温度场的数学模型，研究了巷道内部温度场随埋深和通风热速的变化规律。计算结果表明，巷道温度场对埋深的敏感度要高于风速、温度随埋深的增加而呈阶段性递增。控制入口温度是解决矿井热害的关键。以上结论为矿井热害的综合治理提供了重要依据。