2005年中国减灾新课题

2005年中国减灾出现了一些新的课题:①出境中国公民的公共安全由谁来保护?②沙兰镇灾难显示出现行教育体制使得学生的分数倍受重视而其安全被忽视。③海南“达维”台风灾害显示出当前中国减灾面临的最大问题之一是救灾投入过低。④上海发布的黑色台风预警与国际预警信号不符,如何维护中央政令统一,进而维护国家发展大局,成为一个需要关注的问题。⑤启动地震应急预案的最小地震震级成为需研究确定的问题。⑥农村公共建筑的抗震问题应受到重视。⑦北方地区应将政府机关、体育场、学校等设为应急避难场所。     

地震资料保边的最大一致性倾角扫描去噪方法

在石油天然气勘探开发中,由于断层和裂缝等地质特征是发现和描述油藏的基础,所以分辨和分析地震数据中这些地质特征是非常重要的。本文提出的一种保边界的最大一致性倾角扫描去噪方法,可以在很好地保留地质边界特征的情况下,有效地压制噪音,准确地拾取地层倾角信息,提高油气藏识别的精度。     

Contributions to the Deformation Analysis in Germany Based on Precise and Continuous GPS Measurements

Modern space geodetic techniques enable deformation monitoring of continental plate interiors with high spatial and temporal coverage. Resolving data and results are currently evaluated for their application for the integrated assessment of seismic hazard and risk in Germany. This goes especially for regions where earthquakes are generally rare but high magnitudes are still not unrealistic while vulnerability of today’s society is steadily growing. The present contribution deals with the continuous monitoring of tectonic fracture systems in Germany using the GPS. The estimation of the station velocities with GPS and the resulting geodetic strain is supposed to provide additional input to the earthquake hazard assessment. Unfortunately, the low expected and currently seen velocities (<1–2 mm/year) make it extremely difficult to distinguish between noise and a tectonic signal. Because of the short observation interval the velocity uncertainties are about 2 mm/year in the horizontal components. The essential goal of this program is to provide and model highly precise deformation data and to discuss its needs for a better assessment of geological hazard, especially for the most active tectonic regions in Germany, the Rhine-Graben, the Swabian Alb, the Alpine foreland, and the Vogtland. Here we present preliminary results from 2 years of measurements at currently 150 GPS stations throughout Germany. The time span of this program has proven to be too short and the density of the station network to be not dense enough yet for reliable significant horizontal station velocities and supporting the earthquake hazard assessment.     

基于DEM的含油气盆地油气运移路径模拟

以GIS的栅格数据结构为基础，按照油气运移的机理．借鉴地表水流向分析的GIS建模方法，构建了在GIS支持下开展油气运移路径模拟的详细算法，提出了基于DEM的油气运移路径模拟的基本流程。以我国北方某盆地为例，成功地模拟了该盆地深层天然气的运移路径。     

水工勘测中物探观测信号的处理及解译

针对电磁法物探观测信号离散傅立叶变换中信号畸变问题，研究了不同尺度窗口对信号分析的作用和影响。研究表明，不同尺度窗口表现了信号的不同特点，并各自具有一定的优缺点。信号解译中首先应进行小波分析，剔除病态信号，再根据信号和勘测目的，选用不同尺度窗口函数，从而准确、有效地进行信号处理与解译。     

中分辨率遥感图像条带噪声的去除

CMODIS是中国第一个发射上天的中分辨率成像光谱仪 ,它有 34个波段 ,波长范围从可见光到红外波段。CMODIS数据含有大量有很高实用价值的光谱信息。但是由于CMODIS传感器之间对接受的地物辐射信号的响应特性不同导致CMODIS数据中的许多波段含有大量的条带噪声 ,严重影响了CMODIS数据的解译和信息提取。在介绍了几种常用于TM ,MSS ,SPOT等多传感器遥感图像中的条带噪声去除方法基础上 ,提出了一种新的有限长脉冲响应滤波 (FIR)法 ,并比较了该方法和其它几种常用方法对几何纠正前后非均匀地物分布的CMODIS数据的去条带噪声结果。结果表明这种新方法要优于本文中提到的几种常用方法 ,具有很好的去条带噪声效果 ,同时保持图像原有信息。这种方法在其它多传感器遥感图像的条带噪声去除中也有很强的适用性。     

上海梅汛期候降水异常的低频信号及延伸期预报

提高汛期降水过程的延伸期预报能力是目前天气预报和气候预测发展的重要方向。本文以上海梅汛期降水为例,利用非传统滤波方法提取多变量季节内分量,分析了梅汛期季节内候降水异常及其相联系的延伸期关键低频信号,进一步综合多变量低频信号建立了梅汛期候降水异常延伸期预报方法,并开展了多年的回报和试报检验。结果表明:①梅汛期候降水异常季节内分量具有显著的40～60d低频振荡周期,与降水异常实况具有显著的正相关和较高的符号一致率;②梅汛期季节内候降水异常与超前10～35d的热带及中高纬低频信号有关,主要包括:热带MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation)自阿拉伯海的向东传播、西太平洋副热带高压季节内活动的西北向传播、PNA(Pacific-North American)遥相关型的季节内位相转换以及东北亚冷空气的持续性异常影响;③综合上述多变量低频信号建立了延伸期候降水异常预报模型,对提前10～35d的延伸期候降水异常的季节内分量具有预报技巧,也能较好地预报实际的候降水异常趋势。     

辽宁省及邻近地区较大地震震级的测定方法

本文使用１９８６年至１９９１年期间沈阳遥测地震台网记录到的１４５３次地震的持续时间资料（２．０≤Ｍ＿Ｌ≤６．１级、５ｋｍ＜△＜１０００ｋｍ），求得了辽宁省及其邻近地区多台多幅度持时震级的经验公式，结果表明，这种震级误差小，应用范围为Ｍ＿Ｌ≤６．０级，解决了限幅地震无法计算震级的难题．     

Vondrak滤波法在定点地形变资料分析中的应用

本文使用天文学数据处理中常用的Ｖｏｎｄｒａｋ平滑滤波法，对库尔勒短水准和呼图壁断层形变资料进行了高通、低通和带通数字滤波处理。结果表明，处理后的资料突出了地震前不同周期的地壳形变异常信息，降低了背景噪声和观测误差的影响。该方法对于识别形变异常有较好的效果。     

Robustness of noise filtering by kriging analysis

In geostatistics, factorial kriging is often proposed to filter noise. This filter is built from a linear model which is ideally suited to a Gaussian signal with additive independent noise. Robustness of the performance of factorial kriging is evaluated in less congenial situations. Three different types of noise are considered all perturbing a lognormally distributed signal. The first noise model is independent of the signal. The second noise model is heteroscedastic; its variance depends on the signal, yet noise and signal are uncorrelated. The third noise model is both heteroscedastic and linearly correlated with the signal. In ideal conditions, exhaustive sampling and additive independent noise, factorial kriging succeeds to reproduce the spatial patterns of high signal values. This score remains good in presence of heteroscedastic noise variance but falls quickly in presence of noise-to-signal correlation as soon as the sample becomes sparser.