Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.     

Volume estimation of small scale debris flows based on observations of topographic changes using airborne LiDAR DEMs

This paper describes a geographic information system(GIS)-based method for observing changes in topography caused by the initiation, transport, and deposition of debris flows using highresolution light detection and ranging(LiDAR) digital elevation models(DEMs) obtained before and after the debris flow events. The paper also describes a method for estimating the volume of debris flows using the differences between the LiDAR DEMs. The relative and absolute positioning accuracies of the LiDAR DEMs were evaluated using a real-time precise global navigation satellite system(GNSS) positioning method. In addition, longitudinal and cross-sectional profiles of the study area were constructed to determine the topographic changes caused by the debris flows. The volume of the debris flows was estimated based on the difference between the LiDAR DEMs. The accuracies of the relative and absolute positioning of the two LiDAR DEMs were determined to be ±10 cm and ±11 cm RMSE, respectively, which demonstrates the efficiency of the method for determining topographic changes at an scale equivalent to that of field investigations. Based on the topographic changes, the volume of the debris flows in the study area was estimated to be 3747 m3, which is comparable with the volume estimated based on the data from field investigations.     

云南剑川地区象鼻洞遗址孢粉组合和古环境

为了解云南剑川旧石器时代中晚期植被和气候变化特点以及当地环境与人类活动的关系,选取象鼻洞遗址各地层的13个土样进行孢粉分析。结果表明:该遗址堆积时期孢粉植物群以亚热带和温带成分为主,类型相对丰富,呈温暖期气候特征,但气候存在小的波动,呈现出早期温暖湿润、中期短暂干旱、晚期又逐渐暖湿的特点;木本植物花粉在孢粉总量中占绝对优势,说明当时人类活动对自然环境的影响不明显;可作为食物来源的植物很少,因此,当时居住在象鼻洞的人类主要食物应来源于捕捞或狩猎;对照邻近地区已有的研究成果,推测该遗址气候变化与季风活动有关。     

Spatial and temporal variations of coastlines in northern China (2000-2012)

This study examined the spatial distribution of the continent coastline in northern China using remote sensing and GIS techniques, and calculated the fractal dimension of the coastline by box-counting method, with a time span from 2000 to 2012. Moreover, we analyzed the characteristics of spatial-temporal changes in the coastline's length and fractal dimension, the relationship between the length change and fractal dimension change, and the driving forces of coastline changes in northern China. During the research period, the coastline of the study area increased by 637.95 km, at a rate of 53.16 km per year. On the regional level, the most significant change in coastline length was observed in Tianjin and Hebei. Temporally, the northern China coastline grew faster after 2008. The most dramatic growth was found between 2010 and 2011, with an increasing rate of 2.49% per year. The fractal dimension of the coastline in northern China was increasing during the research period, and the most dramatic increase occurred in Bohai Rim. There is a strong-positive linear relationship between the historical coastline length and fractal dimension (the correlation coefficient was 0.9962). Through statistical analysis of a large number of local coastline changes, it can be found that the increase (or decrease) of local coastline length will, in most cases, lead to the increase (or decrease) of the whole coastline fractal dimension. Civil-coastal engineering construction was the most important factor driving the coastline change in northern China. Port construction, fisheries facilities and salt factories were the top three construction activities. Compared to human activities, the influence of natural processes such as estuarine deposit and erosion were relatively small.     

A Rising Tide in Bangladesh: livelihood adaptation to climate stress

ABSTRACT

Bangladesh is at the forefront of countries experiencing and debating climate change, despite having contributed little to global emissions, and has the greatest vulnerability to climate change due to inadequate institutional support for the dense population dispersed in low-lying terrain. A micro-level study of livelihoods in the Panpatti Union, a district of the coastal zone exposed to climate stress and an array of other social, economic and political stresses, demonstrated that adaptation strategies to a range of shocks were both reactive and proactive. The persistent nature of shocks, and the limited margins in which to respond, meant that achieving sustainable long-term livelihoods was unusually difficult. Despite cases of dynamism and flexibility, where livelihoods had been effectively diversified, rural people largely failed to reduce their exposure to vulnerability. That was especially true of extremely poor, landless and female-headed households. In such challenging circumstances external interventions were required to ensure sustainable development, but were unlikely because of the isolation of Panpatti and the number of villages and people in similar circumstances. This emphasised the need to develop a more robust livelihoods framework to support the most vulnerable communities in severe economic and environmental contexts where climate change is likely to exacerbate all existing problems.     

Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.     

粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

基于现代全球变化研究中关于脆弱性和粮食安全的概念,把历史时期的粮食安全分解为粮食生产安全、粮食供给安全、粮食消费安全3个层次,以气候变化直接影响粮食生产水平为起点,分析气候变化-农(牧)业收成-食物的人均供给量-饥民-社会稳定性的驱动-响应链中的关键过程,指出气候变化影响的驱动-响应关系不能归结为简单的因果关系,诸如耕地、人口、政策、外来势力都会对气候变化的影响起着放大或抑制的作用。     

西双版纳土地利用/覆盖格局的热环境效应研究

利用Landsat TM/ETM＋数据的热红外波段,通过单通道算法,反演了中国热带西双版纳地区的地表温度,并对西双版纳地表温度演变的规律进行了分析,结果显示：（1）研究期间,西双版纳土地利用/覆盖发生了剧烈变化,有林地面积不断减少,旱地、灌木林、茶园与橡胶园面积不断增加;（2）旱地、荒草地、茶园、建设用地的地表真实温度的平均值较高,水体和有林地的平均温度较低;（3）旱地、灌木林、有林地、荒草地和橡胶园对区域的热效应贡献较大,水体、水浇地、建设用地、滩涂和水体的热效应贡献较小;有林地的热单元权重有不断减少的趋势,灌木林与旱地的热单元权重有不断增加的趋势;（4）西双版纳土地利用/覆盖的剧烈变化改变了区域地表温度的分布格局,最终可能会导致地方气候变化。需要进一步开展西双版纳地区LUCC—气候—生态系统耦合研究,深入研究区域LUCC特别是橡胶园的时空变化过程及其气候/生态效应、气候变化与LUCC过程的互馈机制,为实现区域可持续发展提供科学依据。     

沙拐枣属(Calligonum L.)植物物候对长期气温变化的响应

由新疆维吾尔自治区气象信息中心提供的1977—2006年吐鲁番气象资料统计得知:近29年气候有变暖趋势,线性变暖速率为每10年0.72℃,29年来吐鲁番地区年平均气温共上升2.06℃。结合吐鲁番沙漠植物园沙拐枣属植物的物候观测积累资料,分析了4个组的芽膨胀、开始展叶、同化枝开始变色、同化枝初落的时间变化趋势及其与温度变化的响应关系。结果表明:(1)1977年以来,沙拐枣属(Calligonum L.)植物刺果组(Sect.Medusa Sosk.et Alexandr)物候期最晚;同化枝开始变色为泡果组(Sect.Calliphysa(Fisch.et Mey.)Borszcz)晚于翅果组;其他3种物候期中,泡果组物候期最早,基翅组(Sect.Calligonum)和翅果组(Sect.Pterococcus(Pall.)Borszcz)均居中。4个组的芽膨胀和开始展叶时间大部分呈提前趋势,同化枝开始变色和同化枝初落时间呈推后趋势。(2)4个组的芽膨胀与年平均气温、春季气温呈显著负相关(p0.05)。年平均气温每升高1℃,泡果组、刺果组、基翅组、翅果组的芽膨胀时间分别提前4.5d、4.3d、4.1d、8.3d;同化枝开始变色和同化枝初落时间变化不明显。芽膨胀对温度变化的响应程度显著大于同化枝开始变色和同化枝初落。     

1990年以来中国小麦农业气象灾害时空变化特征(英文)

Agro-meteorological disasters(AMD) have become more frequent with climate warming. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major meteorological disasters on wheat production were firstly explored by analyzing the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations(AMS) of China from 1991 to 2009. Furthermore, impact of climate change on AMD was discussed by comparing the warmer decade(2000–2009) with another decade(1991–2000). It was found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, with a highest proportion of 79%. And the frequency of AMD increased significantly with climate change. Specifically, the main disasters occurred more frequently in the reproductive period than in the vegetative period. Besides, the spatial changes in the AMD frequency were characterized by region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas located on the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. All these results were strongly linked to climate change in China. Therefore, sound adaptation options should be taken based on the latest changes of AMD under global warming to reduce agricultural damages.